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论文编号：	15811
作者编号：	2320233847
上传时间：	2025/12/10 13:12:11
中文题目：	N公司O药品市场需求与预测研究
英文题目：	Research on Market Demand and Forecasting of Drug O of Company N
指导老师：	车建国
中文关键字：	GLP-1RA；市场需求预测；系统动力学模型
英文关键字：	GLP-1RA；Market Demand Forecast；System Dynamics Model
中文摘要：	O 药品（即 Ozempic）为 N 公司乃至全球卓越的 GLP-1RA 周制剂，尽管全 球范围内对 GLP-1RA 的发展前景寄予厚望，我国在该领域却面临发展瓶颈：O 药品虽获 2 型糖尿病以及合并心血管疾病，合并肾脏疾病的适应症，但是国内 糖心肾推广体系尚不完善，治疗理念普及进程相对滞后。尤为突出的是，国内 针对 GLP-1RA 潜在市场需求的前瞻性研究仍显薄弱，难以满足企业推广的决策 需求。作为企业战略布局的核心依据，精准的市场预测能够深度剖析需求演变 规律，为企业提供可执行的策略建议与执行方案提供有力支撑。因此，系统梳 理 N 公司 O 药品市场的关键影响要素，科学预测潜在需求规模与用药趋势，明 确行业优化路径，对推动 N 公司 O 药品市场的高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。 本研究通过系统梳理国内外临床实践文献，结合系统动力学模型，深入剖 析影响 O 药品治疗理念普及、供需平衡、潜在市场拓展及临床应用推广的制约 因素。在此基础上，精准识别市场需求模型的核心影响因子，综合运用定性与 定量分析方法，构建 O 药品市场需求系统动力学预测模型，并对模型进行严格 的有效性检验。同时，结合现行政策环境，针对性提出促进 N 公司 O 药品市场 推广的政策优化建议。 研究发现，国内 O 药品市场需求主要受患者对药品的需求、药品价格、患 者支付能力、竞品竞争格局以及国家政策影响等的影响。其中，患者对药品的 需求取决于药品价格指数与居民人均可支配收入，患者经济承受能力则体现在 对高性价比简化治疗方案的接受度上。国内同类仿制品弯道超车，有望推动集 采的实现以及较早纳入集采目录，而 N 公司 O 药品较早上市，获得指南高位推 荐，已形成较强的市场先发优势，如何持续保持当下的优势是值得考虑的问题。 基于上述关键影响因素，本研究构建了系统动力学模型，并开展多情景模拟预 测。预测结果显示，随着公众健康需求升级、简化治疗方案的认可度提升，具 备“一药多效”特性的 O 药品国内市场需求将迎来快速增长期。
英文摘要：	Product O (Ozempic), an exceptional once-weekly GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) developed by Company N, represents a groundbreaking therapeutic advancement for both the company and the global medical community. Although the development prospects for the GLP-1RA class are highly anticipated worldwide, China encounters specific bottlenecks in this field. While Product O has secured indications for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, as well as for reducing cardiovascular and renal risks in high-risk patients, China's integrated Diabetes-Cardio-Renal management ecosystem remains underdeveloped, and the dissemination of corresponding treatment paradigms progresses relatively slowly. A particularly critical challenge is the scarcity of robust prospective studies within China investigating the potential market demand for GLP-1RAs, which consequently fails to adequately inform corporate strategic planning and promotional decision-making. As precise market forecasting serves as a fundamental cornerstone for corporate strategy, it enables an in-depth analysis of demand evolution patterns, thereby providing crucial support for the formulation of actionable strategic recommendations and implementation plans. Therefore, systematically analyzing the key factors influencing the market for Company N's Product O, scientifically projecting its potential demand scale and treatment adoption trends, and identifying pathways for industry optimization hold significant practical importance for fostering the high-quality development of its market in China. This thesis employs a systematic review of both domestic and international clinical practice literature, integrated with a system dynamics modeling approach, to thoroughly investigate the constraining factors affecting the adoption of treatment concepts, supply-demand equilibrium, potential market expansion, and clinical application penetration of Product O. Building upon this foundation, the study precisely identifies the core influencing variables for the market demand model. By combining qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, a system dynamics model for forecasting the market demand of Product O is constructed and subjected to II Abstract rigorous validity testing. Furthermore, considering the current policy environment, the study proposes targeted policy optimization recommendations to facilitate the market promotion of Company N's Product O. The thesis findings indicate that the domestic market demand for Product O is primarily influenced by patient demand for the drug, drug pricing, patient affordability, the competitive landscape of alternative products, and national healthcare policies. Among these, patient demand is determined by the drug price index and per capita disposable income, while patient economic capacity is reflected in their acceptance of cost-effective, simplified treatment regimens. The emergence of domestic generic counterparts, potentially achieving rapid market penetration ("overtaking on a bend"), is expected to accelerate the implementation of volume-based procurement and facilitate their earlier inclusion in the procurement catalog. In contrast, Company N's Product O, benefiting from its first-mover advantage through earlier market entry and high-level guideline recommendations, has established a strong initial market position. The key strategic consideration lies in how to sustain this competitive advantage effectively. Based on the aforementioned key influencing factors, the thesis constructed a system dynamics model and conducted multi-scenario simulation forecasts. The projection results demonstrate that, alongside rising public health demands and growing acceptance of simplified treatment regimens, the domestic market demand for Product O—characterized by its "multiple benefits from a single agent" profile—is poised to enter a phase of rapid growth
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