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论文编号：	15767
作者编号：	2320213937
上传时间：	2025/12/9 22:17:17
中文题目：	养老基金持有并购重组停牌股票的风险管理研究——以Z公司为例
英文题目：	Risk Management Research on Pension Funds Holding Stocks Suspended for Merger and Acquisition Restructuring ——A Case Study of Z Company
指导老师：	姚颐 教授
中文关键字：	养老基金；公允价值计量；停牌股票；估值；风险管理
英文关键字：	Pension Funds; Fair Value Measurement; Suspended Stocks; Valuation; Risk Management
中文摘要：	目前我国老龄化形式日益严峻，国务院印发的“十四五”规划中提出，要大力发展企业年金、职业年金，提高企业年金覆盖率，与此同时资本市场资产并购重组现象频发，养老基金如何应对股票并购重组停牌风险值得深入探讨。 本文采用了案例分析法，基于并购重组相关概念、风险管理相关理论以及公允价值计量等理论基础，以Z公司管理的养老基金持有的股票国泰君安（601211.SH），因吸收合并海通证券发生并购重组停牌作为案例，介绍了Z公司在投资、运营、风控各养老基金管理环节的风险管理现状，并从中发现了一系列风险隐患。在投资环节，Z公司投研团队投资风险管理意识守旧，在投资风险识别时过于依赖硬性投资指标，压力测试流于形式，应对复合型风险能力不足；在投决机制方面缺乏量化标准。在运营环节，Z公司未能对流动性风险做出有效管理，导致爆发了流动性风险事件；由于估值偏差风险管理缺失，未能对股票停牌后可能影响其估值价的因素进行评估并做出估值调整，引发了财务数据失真风险。在风控环节，由于Z公司未主动通过合理的估值技术和审慎的专业判断调整估值价格，引发了合规及信息披露风险；此外，Z公司缺乏跨部门的联合内控机制，导致无人关注股票停牌这一风险点，形成巨大的合规风险敞口。 基于上述分析，作者提出了相应的应对策略。在投资环节，Z公司投研团队应强化主动风险管理意识，根据并购重组影响因素创建投决记分卡机制；在运营环节，Z公司应加强流动性管理，构建系统性的并购重组停牌股票估值体系，并基于调整后的估值价格修正财务数据；在风控环节，Z公司应制定估值调整信息披露管理制度，确立跨部门的协作流程与决策机制。
英文摘要：	Currently, China is facing an increasingly severe aging population. "The 14th Five-Year Plan" issued by the State Council proposes to forcefully develop enterprise annuities and occupational annuities and to increase the coverage rate of enterprise annuities. Simultaneously, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and restructuring occur frequently in the capital market. How pension funds deal with the risks of stock suspensions warrants in-depth discussion. This thesis adopts the case study method. Based on theoretical foundations including concepts related to M&A restructuring, risk management theories, and fair value management theories, taking the case of Guotai Junan Securities(601211.SH), a stock held by the pension funds managed by Z Company, which was suspended from trading due to the merger and acquisition restructuring involving the absorption of Haitong Securities, the thesis introduces the current state of risk management of Z Company in various pension fund management processes including investment, operation, and risk control, and identifies a series of potential risks. On investment stage, investment and research team exhibited outdated risk management awareness, including relying on rigid investment indicators for risk identification excessively, conducting perfunctory stress tests and demonstrating insufficient capability to handle compound risks, also its investment decision-making mechanism lacked quantitative standards. On operation stage, Z Company failed to effectively manage liquidity risks, leading to a liquidity risk incident. Due to the lack of risk management for valuation deviations, it failed to assess factors that might affect its valuation after stock suspension and make corresponding valuation adjustments, triggering risks of financial data distortion. On risk control stage, Z Company failed to proactively adjust valuation prices through reasonable valuation techniques and prudent professional judgment, triggering compliance and information disclosure risks. Furthermore, the lack of a cross-departmental joint internal control mechanism resulted in no attention being paid to the risk of stock suspensions, creating a significant compliance risk exposure. Based on the above analysis, the author proposes corresponding countermeasures. In the investment phase, Z Company's investment and research team should strengthen proactive risk management awareness and establish an investment decision scorecard mechanism based on M&A restructuring influencing factors. In the operations phase, Z Company should enhance liquidity management, construct a systematic valuation system for stocks suspended due to M&A restructuring, and correct financial data based on the adjusted valuation prices. In the risk control phase, Z Company should formulate a valuation adjustment information disclosure management system and establish cross-departmental collaboration procedures and decision-making mechanisms.
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