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论文编号：	15753
作者编号：	2320233841
上传时间：	2025/12/9 19:51:06
中文题目：	XM公司钢材贸易业务的风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of Steel Trading Business in XM Company
指导老师：	焦媛媛
中文关键字：	钢材贸易；风险管理；风险评估
英文关键字：	Steel Business；Risk Management；Risk Assessment
中文摘要：	钢材贸易是我国重要的大宗商品贸易之一，此类业务往往货量大、交易金额高，稍有差池则可能给公司造成巨大损失。当前我国钢材贸易行业面临供需失衡加剧、价格波动频繁、同质化竞争激烈的宏观困境。2024年钢材平均利润降至-0.63%，行业规模以上企业利润较2021年萎缩至93%，中小贸易商因风险管理能力不足生存压力显著。XM公司作为大型国企旗下的钢材贸易企业，虽已构建基础风险管理体系，但随着业务模式从代理为主转向对锁业务+供应链金融的模式，也暴露出市场风险预判能力弱、信用评估模型单一、风险问责机制缺失等痛点，亟需通过系统性研究优化风险管理体系，既解决XM公司的实际问题，也为同类企业提供参考。 本文结合风险管理理论、供应链管理理论、内部控制理论的内容，结合国内外文献界定钢材贸易风险类型与评估方法。通过层析分析法、模糊综合评价法，研究XM公司钢材贸易风险问题。基于提出问题、分析问题、解决问题的思路结合XM公司钢材贸易不同的业务模式分析钢材贸易的风险，并提出相应的风险管理对策。本文首先通过实地调研、专家访谈等方式梳理XM公司业务模式、现有风险管理措施及存在的问题。其次在风险指标筛选阶段，通过德尔菲法确定17项核心风险指标；在指标权重测算时，采用层次分析法测算权重；在风险管理水平评估环节，结合模糊综合评价法，基于既定指标与权重、建立隶属度函数、构造评价矩阵。最后针对核心风险点，从市场风险、操作风险、信用风险、合规性风险四个维度设计风险应对策略。 研究发现，XM公司钢材贸易风险管理整体处于较好水品，但存在结构性短板。市场风险与信用风险是其核心风险，现有风险管理体系需适配业务模式转型的需求，通过三维调研+预测模型、多维度信用评估等策略，可有效弥补短板，最终形成事前预防、事中控制、事后弥补的风险闭环管理体系，为XM公司及同类钢材贸易企业提升风险管理能力提供实操指引。
英文摘要：	Steel trade is one of the important bulk commodity trades in China, This type of businesses typically involve large shipment and high transaction amounts, any slight discrepancy may result in substantial losses to the company. At present, Steel trading industry in China is facing macro challenges such as worsening supply-demand imbalance, frequent price fluctuations, and intense homogeneous competition. In 2024, the average profit of steel has dropped to -0.63%, and the profit of enterprises above designated size in the industry has shrunk to 93% compared to 2021. Small and medium-sized traders are under significant pressure due to insufficient risk management capabilities. As a steel trading enterprise under a large state-owned enterprise, XM Company has established a basic risk management system. However, with the shift of it’s business model from agency based to lock-in matching business combined with supply chain finance, it has also exposed pain points such as weak market risk prediction ability, single credit evaluation model, and lack of risk accountability mechanism. It is urgent to optimize the risk management system through systematic research, which not only solves XM Company’s practical problems but also provides reference for similar enterprises. This thesis combines the content of Risk Management Theory, Supply Chain Management Theory, and Internal Control Theory, and defines the types and evaluation methods of steel trade risks based on domestic and foreign literature. Study the steel trade risk issues of XM Company through Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method and Analytic Hierarchy Process. Based on the idea of raising questions, analyzing problems, and solving problems, combined with the different business models of XM Company's steel trade, analyze the risks of steel trade and propose corresponding risk management strategies. This thesis first sorts out XM Company's business model, existing risk management measures, and existing problems through field research, expert interviews, and other methods. Secondly, in the risk indicator screening stage, 17 core risk indicators were determined through the Delphi Method; When calculating the weight of indicators, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to measure the weight; In the risk management level assessment stage, combined with the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method, based on established indicators and weights, establish membership functions, and construct evaluation matrices. Finally, for the core risk points, risk response strategy are designed from four dimensions: market risk, operational risk, credit risk, and compliance risk. Research has found that XM Company's steel trade risk management is generally at a good level, but there are structural weaknesses. Market risk and credit risk are the core risks, and the existing risk management system needs to adapt to the requirements of business model transformation. Through strategies such as three-dimensional research and forecasting models, multi-dimensional credit evaluation, the weaknesses can be effectively addressed, and ultimately forming a closed-loop risk management system of pre prevention, in-process control, and post event remediation .This provides practical guidance for XM Company and similar steel trading enterprises to enhance their risk management capabilities.
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