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论文编号：	15667
作者编号：	2320233779
上传时间：	2025/12/9 9:58:25
中文题目：	L房地产公司Y项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Study on Risk Management of Project Y of L Real Estate Company
指导老师：	田莉
中文关键字：	房地产公司；风险管理；司法重整；层次分析法（AHP）；模糊综合评价（FCE）
英文关键字：	Real Estate Company；Risk management；Judicial Reorganization；Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)；Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE)
中文摘要：	2023年至2025年是中国房地产行业深度调整与转型的关键阶段。在宏观经济下行、政策持续收紧与企业流动性危机交织的背景下，房地产开发项目面临前所未有的风险挑战，尤其是已进入司法重整程序的项目，风险更为复杂与集中。本文以L房地产公司位于保定市、已进入司法重整程序的Y项目为研究对象，旨在构建一套适用于此类特殊情境下的项目风险管理体系，为实现“保交楼”目标提供决策支持，并为行业同类项目提供参考。 本研究遵循“理论构建—实证分析—对策提出”的逻辑主线。首先，通过文献分析法初步识别出30项风险因素，进而采用德尔菲法邀请10位业内专家进行多轮背对背咨询，结合案例对比，最终从环境、经营、市场、建设与技术五个维度筛选出18项关键风险因素，并借助鱼骨图进行可视化归因分析。在风险评价阶段，构建了包含5个一级指标和18个二级指标的层次结构模型，依托层次分析法（AHP）对各指标权重进行科学测算。研究结果表明，经营风险（0.4495）和建设风险（0.3030）是项目的核心风险源，其中资金周转、融资与征地安置风险最为突出。进一步通过模糊综合评价法（FCE）进行计算，得出项目整体风险隶属度为（0.325, 0.352, 0.235, 0.066, 0.023），依据最大隶属度原则判定其风险等级为“较高风险”，且濒临“高风险”临界状态。 本研究的理论价值在于，验证了“五维风险框架”及AHP-FCE组合模型在司法重整类市级房地产项目风险管理中的适用性与有效性，填补了该特殊领域的研究空白。在实践层面，针对识别出的高风险领域，研究提出了包括动态政策响应、资金优化与共管、供应链协同及透明化沟通等在内的集成化防控策略，形成了“司法重整框架下的保交楼项目风险管理范式”，不仅为Y项目的纾困与交付提供了可操作的行动指南，其方法论与实践路径对正处于困境中的同类项目亦具备重要的借鉴与推广价值。
英文摘要：	The period from 2023 to 2025 marks a critical phase of profound adjustment and transformation for China's real estate industry. Against the backdrop of a macroeconomic downturn, continuously tightening policies, and widespread corporate liquidity crises, real estate development projects are facing unprecedented risk challenges. Projects undergoing judicial restructuring, in particular, are characterized by more complex and concentrated risks. This study focuses on Project Y of L Real Estate Company, located in Baoding City, which has entered judicial restructuring. It aims to construct a project risk management system applicable to such special circumstances, providing decision-making support for achieving the goal of "ensuring housing delivery" and offering a reference for similar projects in the industry. This research follows a logical framework of "theoretical construction-empirical analysis-proposal of countermeasures." First, through literature analysis, 30 risk factors were preliminarily identified. Subsequently, the Delphi method was employed, involving 10 industry experts in multiple rounds of anonymous consultation. Combined with case comparisons, 18 key risk factors were ultimately selected across five dimensions: environmental, operational, market, construction, and technical risks. These factors were visually analyzed using a fishbone diagram for root cause attribution. In the risk evaluation stage, a hierarchical structure model comprising 5 first-level indicators and 18 second-level indicators was constructed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to scientifically determine the weight of each indicator. The results indicate that operational risk (0.4495) and construction risk (0.3030) are the core risk sources of the project, with capital turnover, financing, and land acquisition and resettlement risks being the most prominent. Further calculations using the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) method yielded the overall risk membership vector of the project as (0.325, 0.352, 0.235, 0.066, 0.023). According to the maximum membership principle, the project's overall risk level is assessed as "relatively high," approaching a "high-risk" threshold. The theoretical value of this study lies in validating the applicability and effectiveness of the "five-dimensional risk framework" and the AHP-FCE integrated model in risk management for municipal-level real estate projects under judicial restructuring, addressing a gap in this specific research area. On a practical level, in response to the identified high-risk areas, the study proposes integrated prevention and control strategies-including dynamic policy response, fund optimization and co-management, supply chain collaboration, and transparent communication-forming a "risk management paradigm for ensuring housing delivery under judicial restructuring." This not only provides an actionable guide for rescuing and delivering Project Y but also offers valuable insights and a replicable methodology for other similar projects in distress.
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