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论文编号：	15514
作者编号：	1120211213
上传时间：	2025/6/14 18:30:24
中文题目：	美国智库涉华开源情报研究
英文题目：	Research on Open-Source Intelligence from U.S. Think Tanks on China
指导老师：	王芳
中文关键字：	开源情报；涉华研究；美国智库；攻防体系
英文关键字：	Open-source Intelligence; China-related Research; U.S. Think Tanks; Offensive-Defensive System
中文摘要：	当今世界面临百年未有之大变局，中美关系作为国际上最重要的双边关系，在新的历史时期面临着严峻考验。在大国博弈和大数据时代背景下，被誉为美国政治生活“第四种权力”的智库通过对多源公开数据的整合分析形成研究报告，并以此介入美国对华关键议题的决策过程。由此，美国智库作为具有典型情报功能的机构，在美国政府对华战略制定中有着举足轻重的地位。因此，分析美国智库涉华研究报告的主题及信息源，对我国理解美国智库对华关注点进而制定有针对性地应对措施非常关键。同时，分析美国智库对涉华开源情报的运用规律对于开源情报的理论研究也具有重要意义。 美国智库涉华研究的主题映射出美国政府及决策机构对华战略的关注点，美国智库涉华研究的信息源选择代表其开源情报搜集的来源渠道。在此基础上，构建相应的攻防体系有助于在全球治理秩序重构和地缘政治冲突加剧的背景下，提升我国对美国对华战略的应对效能。因此，本文从以下三个方面展开研究： 首先，对美国智库涉华研究的主题及其演化规律进行分析。本研究选取14家美国顶级智库发布的涉华研究报告，将报告内容切分成段落级，利用BERT词嵌入、UMAP算法降维、层次密度聚类算法以及c-TF-IDF等技术对美国智库涉华研究进行主题分析，并在此基础上分析不同政治时期美国智库涉华研究的主题演化特征。 其次，对不同政治时期美国智库涉华研究的信息源特征进行研究，并探讨其在不同主题下的差异。利用正则表达式，提取美国智库涉华研究报告的信息源，对信息源的类型、所属机构以及所属国别进行分类与分析，并对不同主题下的信息源特征进行对比分析。在此基础上，构建主题-信息源机构二模网络，分析不同主题下美国智库对来自中国信息源机构的依赖情况。 最后，构建针对美国智库涉华研究的开源情报攻防体系。本研究在对美国智库对华认知及信息源潜在泄密风险进行分析的基础上，提出针对美国智库涉华研究的开源情报攻防策略。同时，综合主题分析、信息源分析、美国智库对华认知分析、信息源风险分析以及攻防策略，基于系统论思想构建针对美国智库涉华研究的开源情报攻防体系。 本研究的创新点体现在以下三个方面：首先，探讨了不同时期美国智库涉华研究的主题及演化规律，克服了传统小数据抽样与单一质性方法的解释力局限，全面揭示了美国智库涉华研究的注意力焦点及其演化特征，实现了对美国智库对华研究的系统性追踪与动态解构。其次，本研究对不同主题下美国智库涉华研究的信息源特征进行了分析，系统解构了美国智库涉华研究的情报生产链条，弥补了现有研究对主题动态演化与信息源网络关联性分析的不足。最后，构建了针对美国智库涉华研究的开源情报攻防体系，在传统情报分析的线性模型基础上嵌入对华认知与攻防策略，形成包含“涉华主题-对华认知-信息源风险-攻防策略-评估反馈”的开源情报攻防体系，为我国开源情报工作在大国博弈下的应对提供兼具理论性与实践性的解决方案。 本文共包含图19幅，表13个，参考文献478篇。
英文摘要：	The world today is facing unprecedented changes not seen in a century, and China–U.S. relations, as the most significant bilateral relationship in the world, are encountering severe challenges in this new historical period. Against the backdrop of great power rivalry and the era of big data, think tanks, often referred to as the “fourth power” in American political life, integrate and analyze multi-source open data to generate research reports. These reports play a key role in influencing the decision-making process on critical China-related issues in the U.S. government. As institutions with a typical intelligence function, U.S. think tanks hold a crucial position in the formulation of U.S. strategies toward China. Therefore, analyzing the themes and information sources of China-related research reports produced by U.S. think tanks is essential for understanding their concerns regarding China and formulating targeted response strategies. Additionally, examining the patterns in which American think tanks apply open-source intelligence related to China holds significant implications for advancing theoretical research in the field of open-source intelligence. The themes of U.S. think tank research on China reflect the focal points of the U.S. government and decision-making institutions in their strategy toward China, while the selection of information sources in these studies represents the channels of open-source intelligence collection. Based on this, constructing an appropriate system for both offense and defense will help enhance China’s response effectiveness to U.S. strategies toward China, particularly in the context of the restructuring of global governance and the intensification of geopolitical conflicts. Therefore, this study analyzes the issue from the following three aspects: Firstly, this study analyzes the themes and evolution patterns of U.S. think tank research on China. by selecting China-related research reports published by 14 top U.S. think tanks. The content of these reports is segmented into paragraphs, and various techniques such as BERT word embedding, UMAP dimensionality reduction algorithm, hierarchical density clustering algorithm, and c-TF-IDF are employed to conduct thematic analysis of the U.S. think tank research on China. Based on this, the study further examines the thematic evolution characteristics of U.S. think tank research on China across different political periods. Secondly, this study examines the characteristics of information sources in U.S. think tank research on China across different political periods and explores the variations in these characteristics across different themes. By utilizing regular expressions, the study extracts information sources from U.S. think tank reports on China. These sources are classified and analyzed based on their type, affiliated institutions, and countries of origin. A comparative analysis of the information source characteristics under different themes is then conducted. Building on this, a bipartite network of topics and information source institutions is constructed to analyze the degree of reliance of U.S. think tanks on information source institutions from China across different themes. Finally, this study constructs an open-source intelligence (OSINT) offense-defense framework targeting U.S. think tank research on China. Based on an analysis of U.S. think tanks’ cognitive approaches toward China and the potential risks of information leakage through their sources, the study proposes a set of OSINT strategies for both offensive and defensive purposes. Furthermore, by integrating thematic analysis, information source analysis, cognitive analysis of U.S. think tanks toward China, risk assessment of information sources, and corresponding offense-defense strategies, the research adopts a systems theory perspective to develop a comprehensive OSINT offense-defense framework specifically tailored to U.S. think tank research on China. The innovations of this study are reflected in the following three aspects: First, this research explores the themes and evolutionary patterns of U.S. think tank research on China across different political periods, overcoming the limitations of traditional small-data sampling and single qualitative methods. It comprehensively reveals the focal points of U.S. think tank research on China and its evolutionary characteristics, achieving a systematic tracking and dynamic deconstruction of U.S. think tank research on China. Second, the study analyzes the characteristics of information sources in U.S. think tank research on China under different themes, systematically deconstructing the intelligence production chain of U.S. think tank research on China. This fills the gap in existing research concerning the analysis of the dynamic evolution of themes and the interconnectedness of information source networks. Finally, the study constructs an OSINT offense-defense system tailored for U.S. think tanks. Based on the traditional linear model of intelligence analysis, this system integrates perceptions of China and offense-defense strategies, forming an OSINT offense-defense system that includes “China-related themes - perceptions of China - information sources - offense-defense strategies - evaluation feedback.” This system provides both theoretical and practical solutions for China’s open-source intelligence work in response to great power competition. This dissertation contains 19 pictures, 13 tables, 478 references.
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