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论文编号：	15484
作者编号：	2120233686
上传时间：	2025/6/12 18:03:46
中文题目：	创业者如何做出创业退出决策？——基于制度视角和认知视角的单案例过程追踪研究
英文题目：	How Do Entrepreneurs Make Exit Decisions: A Process-Tracing Case Study from Institutional and Cognitive Perspectives
指导老师：	任兵
中文关键字：	创业退出决策；制度环境；政治关联；创业认知；认知冲突
英文关键字：	Entrepreneurial exit decision; Institutional environment; Political connections; Entrepreneurial cognition; Cognitive conflict
中文摘要：	在中国经济转型的宏观背景下，创业活动呈现高增长与高风险并存的特征。随着“十四五”规划对创新创业的政策支持力度加大，新创企业数量持续攀升，但数据显示，中国新创企业平均存活期不足3年，70%的企业在成立前两年面临解散或转型风险。尤其在数字经济快速迭代的竞争环境中，创业退出作为创业过程的关键环节，日益成为学术界与实践界共同关注的焦点，对于创业退出领域的研究具有紧迫性。 中国作为典型的转型经济体，其市场制度存在动态性与不稳定性特征。尽管现有研究已关注到制度环境对创业退出的影响，但多采用静态视角分析影响因素间的因果关系，而对“如何”以及“为何”在不同制度背景下演变为具体的退出行为，尚缺乏系统深入的机理剖析。基于情境－认知－决策路径，笔者关注到制度环境与创业者及创业团队认知会共同作用于创业退出决策，但现有研究未能揭示制度与创业者认知的动态交互过程。同时，国内研究对创业退出决策的过程追踪与情境嵌入分析不足，尤其缺乏对创业者主观认知机制的深度剖析。因此，本研究通过整合制度理论与认知理论，构建“制度－认知”双视角框架，旨在揭示中国情境下创业退出决策的形成机理。提出核心研究问题：“创业者如何做出创业退出决策？”并将其分解为两个子问题：（1）制度环境高度不确定情境下，创业者及创业团队表现出怎样的认知特征？（2）制度环境与创业者及创业团队认知如何互动，从而共同作用于创业退出决策？ 本研究采用单案例过程追踪研究方法，选取A集团P2P项目作为研究对象，追踪其从2013年筹备进入至2015年主动退出的完整创业周期，对案例企业进行过程性纵向研究。基于调研团队通过深度访谈、焦点小组讨论、内部会议观察等多种方式取得的调研数据，展开质性研究。对于调研团队取得的过程性数据，笔者对数据的分析方式采用Langley（1999）的过程数据分析策略组合，结合叙事策略、时序分区策略以及可视化图式策略进行案例分析。对案例企业的创业过程分别进行描述性案例分析和探索性案例分析。 基于以上分析方法，得出以下四个方面的研究结论：第一，外部制度环境的急剧变化为创业决策设定了情境框架，制度环境处于高度不确定性的情况下，政治关联通过为创业者提供信息资源的方式弥补制度空白，为创业者提供认知的环境基础，同时影响创业者的机会感知和风险感知。第二，创业者通过对于分析式和启发式两种认知加工方式解读创业情景，形成不同的认知图式，指导其做出创业进入、业务调整、创业退出等关键决策，政治关联对创业者形成的认知烙印也对创业者认知图式产生影响。第三，创业者与团队之间，以及跨团队之间由于不同的认知机制会导致风险感知差异、战略目标冲突两种类型的团队认知冲突。第四，制度压力的风险感知和团队认知冲突下的业务停滞共同促进创业者做出创业退出决策。
英文摘要：	Under the macroeconomic backdrop of Chinese economic transition, entrepreneurial activities exhibit a dual characteristic of high growth and high risk. With intensified policy support for innovation and entrepreneurship under the 14th Five-Year Plan, the number of new ventures continues to rise. However, data indicate that the average survival period of Chinese startups is less than three years, with 70% facing dissolution or transformation risks within their first two years. Particularly in the rapidly evolving competitive landscape of the digital economy, entrepreneurial exit-as a critical phase of the entrepreneurial process-has become a shared focus for academia and practitioners, underscoring the urgency of research in this field. As a prototypical transitional economy, Chinese market institutions are characterized by dynamism and instability. While existing studies have acknowledged the impact of institutional environments on entrepreneurial exit, they predominantly adopt static perspectives to analyze causal relationships among influencing factors. Systematic and in-depth exploration of the mechanisms explaining "how" and "why" specific exit behaviors emerge under varying institutional contexts remains lacking. Grounded in the context-cognition-decision pathway, this study posits that institutional environments and entrepreneurs’ (or entrepreneurial teams’) cognition jointly shape exit decisions, yet current research fails to uncover the dynamic interplay between institutions and entrepreneurial cognition. Additionally, domestic studies inadequately address process tracing and contextual embedding in exit decision-making, particularly neglecting the subjective cognitive mechanisms of entrepreneurs. To address these gaps, this research integrates institutional and cognitive theories to construct a dual-perspective "institution–cognition" framework, aiming to reveal the formation mechanisms of entrepreneurial exit decisions in China. The core research question is formulated as: How do entrepreneurs make exit decisions? This is further decomposed into two sub-questions: (1) What cognitive characteristics do entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial teams exhibit under highly uncertain institutional environments? (2) How do institutional environments and entrepreneurial cognition interact to jointly influence exit decisions? This study employs a single-case process-tracing research method, selecting Group A’s P2P project as the research object. The full entrepreneurial cycle—from its entry preparation in 2013 to its voluntary exit in 2015—is longitudinally tracked. Qualitative research is conducted using data collected through in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and observations of internal meetings. Processual data are analyzed using Langley’s (1999) processual data analysis strategies, combining narrative techniques, temporal bracketing, and visual mapping for case analysis. Both descriptive and exploratory case analyses are performed on the venture’s lifecycle. Key findings are derived as follows: (1) Rapid shifts in external institutional environments establish the contextual framework for exit decisions. Under high institutional uncertainty, political connections compensate for institutional voids by providing entrepreneurs with informational resources, shaping their cognitive foundations while influencing opportunity and risk perceptions.(2) Entrepreneurs interpret entrepreneurial contexts through dual cognitive processing (analytical vs. heuristic), forming distinct cognitive schemas that guide critical decisions such as market entry, business adjustments, and exit. Political imprinting further modifies these cognitive schemas.(3) Intra-team and inter-team cognitive conflicts arise from divergent cognitive mechanisms, manifesting as discrepancies in risk perception and strategic goal misalignment.(4) Institutionally driven risk perceptions and operational stagnation due to cognitive conflicts collectively drive entrepreneurs toward exit decisions.
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