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论文编号：	15360
作者编号：	1120211207
上传时间：	2025/6/7 10:19:33
中文题目：	气候风险如何影响企业研发投入 ——基于高管认知和显著性理论的实证研究
英文题目：	How Climate Risk Influences Corporate R&D Investment: An Empirical Study Based on Executive Cognition and Salience
指导老师：	古志辉
中文关键字：	显著性理论;极端降水;研发投入;灾害烙印;气候政策不确定性
英文关键字：	Salience Theory; Extreme Precipitation; R&D Investment; Disaster imprint; Climate Policy Uncertainty
中文摘要：	全球变暖所引发的气候变化已经成为影响人类未来发展的关键因素。全球气温的持续上升使得自然界中的热能转化为空气和海洋中的动能，从而导致极端降水及其次生灾害频发。极端降水作为我国东南沿海地区常见的气象灾害，其发生频率、登陆地点和运动路径都具有较大的随机性，所带来的短暂冲击将改变灾害区域企业资产的收益-风险边界。在此背景下，创新成为推动可持续发展的核心战略。但实物期权理论与损失厌恶理论为公司在灾害风险冲击如何调整研发投入决策提供了相反的结论。为此，本文基于显著性理论综合气候灾害类型，利用极端降水强度差异性和企业研发投入环境敏感性特点，试图解释以下四个问题：首先，基于气候灾害风险视角，企业高管对不同程度降水灾害是否存在偏好反转现象，即极端降水灾害与非极端降水灾害如何对企业的研发投入产生非对称影响；其次，基于历史气候灾害视角，CEO记忆敏感时期的灾害经历如何在两类降水灾害影响企业研发投入中发挥作用。再次，基于气候转型风险视角，气候政策不确定性如何在两类降水灾害影响企业研发投入中发挥作用。最后，本文还试图从公司治理水平和风险适应能力这两方面寻找应对上述灾害风险的可行策略来帮助企业提高灾害韧性。 本文在梳理相关理论与研究文献的基础上，从气候风险的内涵出发，基于实物期权理论与损失厌恶理论分别分析了降水灾害对企业研发投入的具体作用机制。从历史灾害的视角，本文利用贝叶斯学习理论与可得性启发理论，讨论了CEO记忆敏感时期的灾害经历对其未来灾害风险认知影响的理论逻辑；从气候政策不确定视角，本文利用实物期权理论讨论了气候政策不确定性与极端降水对企业研发投入共同影响的分析框架。从灾害风险应对的视角，本文分析了企业公司治理水平与风险适应能力对缓解灾害冲击、CEO偏见以及制度不确定性的内在框架。 首先，本文利用显著性理论调和实物期权理论与损失厌恶理论的对立关系，通过建立互补性研究假设验证灾害风险是否会导致企业发生偏好反转现象。具体来说，本文按照世界气象组织建议的极端降水定义和中国气象降雨量等级划分标准，从是否对企业营业利润产生直接损失的角度，建立两类有细微差异的降水灾害情境，并使用2010-2022年A股上市公司为研究样本进行实证检验，得出如下结论：在非极端降水灾害情境下，企业高管由于对损失前景的厌恶，倾向于增加研发投入，而极端降水灾害情境下企业因资源匮乏或市场需求产生不确定等原因延迟研发投入。中介作用机制分析发现：非极端降水灾害会通过增加企业的现金持有和自利行为进而增加企业研发投入，而极端降水灾害会通过减少企业的现金持有和自利行为进而减少企业研发投入，上述结论共同支持了显著性理论中的情境依赖和偏好反转现象。经济后果分析发现：非极端降水导致研发投入的增加反而抑制了企业下一年度的创新产出，是一种“遮掩效应”，而极端降水导致研发投入的减少对企业的利润产生了负面影响。 接着，作者基于中国户籍制度手工整理了CEO出生地的历史暴雨洪涝灾害数据，并将灾害事件按照死亡人数区分为致命灾害事件和非致命灾害事件。通过分析CEO经历的两类灾害烙印在不同灾害情境下对企业研发投入的作用机制，并进行实证检验，得出以下结论：基于创伤后成长理论，CEO的非致命灾害烙印促进了企业的研发投入；基于创伤后应激理论，CEO的致命灾害烙印则抑制了企业的研发投入。这一结论进一步支持了显著性理论的相关观点。此外，基于贝叶斯学习理论和可得性理论双元理论，研究发现CEO的致命灾害烙印促进了极端降水灾害对研发投入的负向影响，而CEO的非致命灾害烙印则抑制了极端降水灾害对研发投入的负向影响；同时，CEO的致命灾害烙印并未直接影响非极端降水灾害对研发投入的正向影响，CEO的非致命灾害烙印则抑制了非极端降水灾害对研发投入的正向影响。 然后，本文基于MacBERT-Base-Chinese模型构建了中国气候政策不确定性指数，分析了气候政策不确定性在两类灾害情境下对企业的作用机制，并进行了实证检验。研究得出以下结论：气候政策不确定性促进了企业的研发投入；此外，气候政策不确定性加剧了极端降水灾害对研发投入的负向影响，而抑制了非极端降水灾害对研发投入的正向影响。同时，在具有致命灾害烙印CEO并位于高气候政策不确性地区的公司中，极端降水对企业研发投入的抑制作用更明显；具有非致命灾害烙印CEO并位于低气候政策不确性地区的公司中，极端降水对企业研发投入的抑制作用更明显；在具有非致命灾害烙印CEO并位于低气候政策不确性地区的公司中，非极端降水对企业研发投入的促进作用更明显。 最后，本文从企业治理水平的视角出发，发现机构持股比例较高、具有国有性质的企业以及女性CEO领导下的公司，在面对灾害风险时，其研发投入决策表现较为优越。同时，基于企业风险适应水平的视角，研究发现那些不易受降水灾害影响、具有浓厚儒家文化氛围以及数字化转型程度较高的公司，在面对灾害风险时，其研发投入决策亦表现出较好的适应性。 综上所述，本文基于显著性理论，通过实证检验探讨了非极端降水与极端降水对研发投入的非对称性影响，揭示了企业高管决策中的偏好反转现象。研究拓展了显著性理论的应用领域，调和了实物期权理论与损失厌恶理论的对立，扩展了气候风险与企业高管决策相关研究的范围。特别地，本文将历史灾害经验与政策不确定性纳入分析框架，系统地考察了三类灾害风险的综合效应，识别了企业在灾害面前的韧性。这一研究不仅深化了利益相关者对灾害风险对企业创新行为影响机制的理解，为企业制定有效应对策略、提升其在灾害环境中的生存和发展能力提供了经验证据，也为灾害管理与风险控制实践提供了新的视角。
英文摘要：	Climate change, driven by global warming, has become a critical determinant in shaping the future trajectory of human development. The persistent rise in global temperatures has resulted in the transformation of thermal energy in the natural world into kinetic energy within the atmosphere and oceans, thereby leading to the frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events and their associated secondary disasters. Extreme precipitation, a common meteorological hazard in China's southeastern coastal regions, is characterized by considerable randomness in terms of its frequency, landfall locations, and movement paths. The transient shocks induced by such events have the potential to alter the risk-return boundary of corporate assets in the affected regions. In this context, innovation emerges as a pivotal strategy to drive sustainable development. However, the theories of real options and loss aversion provide conflicting insights regarding how companies should adjust their research and development investment decisions in response to disaster-induced risks. Therefore, this paper, grounded in the theory of significance, integrates various types of climate disasters and leverages the disparities in extreme precipitation intensity alongside the sensitivity of corporate R&D investments to environmental factors. It aims to address four key questions: First, from the perspective of climate disaster risk, does a preference reversal phenomenon exist among corporate executives concerning varying degrees of precipitation-related disasters, i.e., how do extreme and non-extreme precipitation events asymmetrically affect corporate R&D investment? Second, from the historical climate disaster perspective, how does a CEO's experience during memory-sensitive periods of disasters influence corporate R&D investments in the face of two types of precipitation hazards? Third, from the viewpoint of climate transition risk, what role does uncertainty in climate policy play in shaping corporate R&D investment responses to the two categories of precipitation disasters? Finally, this study seeks to explore feasible strategies for enhancing disaster resilience by examining corporate governance quality and risk adaptation capacity as critical levers for responding to the aforementioned disaster risks. Based on a review of relevant theories and literature, this paper begins with the concept of climate risk and analyzes the specific mechanisms through which precipitation disasters impact corporate R&D investments, drawing on the theories of real options and loss aversion. From a historical disaster perspective, the paper utilizes Bayesian learning theory and the availability heuristic to discuss the theoretical logic behind how CEOs' experiences during memory-sensitive periods of disasters influence their future perceptions of disaster risks. From the viewpoint of climate policy uncertainty, the paper employs the real options theory to develop an analytical framework for understanding the joint effects of climate policy uncertainty and extreme precipitation on corporate R&D investments. From the perspective of disaster risk mitigation, the paper explores the role of corporate governance quality and risk adaptation capacity in mitigating disaster shocks, CEO biases, and institutional uncertainties. Firstly, this paper reconciles the opposing relationship between the real options theory and loss aversion theory by utilizing the theory of significance, establishing complementary research hypotheses to test whether disaster risks can lead to preference reversal phenomena in corporations. Specifically, following the World Meteorological Organization's definition of extreme precipitation and China's rainfall classification standards, two subtly distinct precipitation disaster scenarios are constructed based on whether they cause direct losses to corporate operating profits. Empirical testing is conducted using A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2022 as the research sample, leading to the following conclusions: In non-extreme precipitation scenarios, corporate executives, driven by loss aversion, tend to increase R&D investments. In contrast, under extreme precipitation scenarios, companies delay R&D investments due to resource shortages or market demand uncertainties. Mediation analysis reveals that non-extreme precipitation disasters increase corporate R&D investment through higher cash holdings and self-interested behavior, while extreme precipitation disasters reduce R&D investment through diminished cash holdings and self-interested behavior. These findings collectively support the context-dependent and preference-reversal phenomena in the theory of significance. Economic consequence analysis reveals that the increase in R&D investment caused by non-extreme precipitation suppresses the company's innovation output in the subsequent year, representing a "masking effect," while the reduction in R&D investment caused by extreme precipitation negatively affects corporate profits. Subsequently, the author manually compiled historical data on extreme rainfall and flood disasters affecting CEOs' birthplaces based on China's household registration system. These disaster events were categorized into fatal and non-fatal events according to the number of casualties. Through an analysis of how the imprint of these two types of disasters experienced by the CEO impacts corporate R&D investment under different disaster scenarios, empirical tests were conducted, leading to the following conclusions: based on post-traumatic growth theory, the non-fatal disaster imprint of the CEO enhances corporate R&D investment; conversely, under post-traumatic stress theory, the fatal disaster imprint inhibits such investment. This conclusion further supports the views espoused by significance theory. Moreover, utilizing a dual framework combining Bayesian learning theory and availability theory, the study revealed that the fatal disaster imprint of the CEO exacerbates the negative impact of extreme rainfall on R&D investment, while the non-fatal disaster imprint mitigates this negative effect. Furthermore, the fatal disaster imprint did not directly affect the positive impact of non-extreme rainfall on R&D investment, whereas the non-fatal disaster imprint suppressed this positive impact. Furthermore, the paper developed a China Climate Policy Uncertainty Index based on the MacBERT-Base-Chinese model and analyzed the role of climate policy uncertainty in shaping corporate behaviors under both disaster scenarios. Empirical verification revealed the following findings: climate policy uncertainty fosters increased corporate R&D investment. Additionally, it intensifies the negative effect of extreme rainfall disasters on R&D investment while dampening the positive effect of non-extreme rainfall disasters. Furthermore, in companies with CEOs bearing a fatal disaster imprint and operating in regions with high climate policy uncertainty, the inhibitory effect of extreme rainfall on R&D investment is more pronounced. In contrast, companies with CEOs possessing a non-fatal disaster imprint in low climate policy uncertainty regions exhibit a stronger negative impact of extreme rainfall on R&D investment. Lastly, in firms with non-fatal disaster imprint CEOs located in regions with low climate policy uncertainty, the positive influence of non-extreme rainfall on R&D investment is more evident. Finally, from the perspective of corporate governance, this study reveals that companies with a higher proportion of institutional shareholders, state-owned enterprises, and those led by female CEOs demonstrate superior R&D investment decisions when confronted with disaster risks. Additionally, from the standpoint of corporate risk adaptation, the research identifies that firms less susceptible to precipitation-related disasters, those with a strong Confucian cultural atmosphere, and those with higher levels of digital transformation exhibit better adaptability in their R&D investment decisions when facing such risks. In summary, drawing upon significance theory, this paper empirically examines the asymmetric effects of non-extreme and extreme rainfall on R&D investment, unveiling the phenomenon of preference reversal in executive decision-making. The study broadens the application of significance theory, reconciles the conflict between real options theory and loss aversion theory, and fills the gap in research related to climate risk and corporate executive decision-making. In particular, by incorporating historical disaster experience and policy uncertainty into the analytical framework, this research systematically investigates the cumulative effects of three types of disaster risks, identifying corporate resilience in the face of disasters. This study not only deepens stakeholders' understanding of the mechanisms by which disaster risks affect corporate innovation behavior, providing empirical evidence for businesses to formulate effective coping strategies and enhance their survival and development capabilities in disaster-prone environments, but also offers new perspectives for disaster management and risk control practices.
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