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论文编号：	15350
作者编号：	2120233681
上传时间：	2025/6/6 15:34:02
中文题目：	供应链风险、管理者风险承担与企业投资效率
英文题目：	Supply Chain Risk, Managerial Risk-taking and Corporate Investment Efficiency
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	供应链风险；投资效率；管理者风险承担；存货周转率
英文关键字：	Supply chain risk; Investment efficiency; Managerial risk-taking; Inventory turnover rate
中文摘要：	供应链是现代经济运行的核心脉络，对企业来说，形成良好的供应链关系有利于促进产业跨界和协同发展、加强从生产到消费等各环节的有效对接，实现未来更好的发展。供应链风险是一种潜在的威胁，它会利用供应链系统的脆弱性，对供应链系统造成破坏，给上下游企业以及整个供应链带来损失。投资是现代企业的核心经济活动，实现有价值的投资极有可能帮助企业实现创新突破和市场扩张，所以企业投资是否有价值、是否合理就成为关注的重点，投资效率是指企业通过合理配置资源、优化决策流程，将有限的资金投入到能够产生最大效益领域的能力，关系到企业未来发展、价值提升和可持续发展等多个方面。基于供应链的重要性，企业在进行投资决策时，很可能受到来自供应链方面风险因素的影响，本文据此进行研究，探究供应链风险究竟是否会影响到企业的投资决策、会否对企业的投资效率产生影响，并探究在这之中管理者风险承担水平发挥的作用，本文旨在为企业如何正确认识和应对供应链风险提供理论参考。 本文选用2014-2023年中国A股全部上市公司作为研究样本，利用Python软件以及Word2Vec方法手工对企业MD&A部分的内容进行处理和文本分析去度量供应链风险，利用Richardson模型度量企业的投资效率。最终本文结果显示：（1）供应链风险的存在会倒逼企业、迫使企业审慎并且更合理地规划产能进行投资进而提升投资效率，这种提升是利用管理层风险厌恶的心理抑制过度投资和起到风险警示作用改善投资不足来达到的，并且此结论经过替换解释变量和被解释变量以及内生性检验之后依旧成立；（2）关于管理者风险承担方面，管理者自信会显著抑制供应链风险对投资效率的影响，而管理层的性别比例和金融背景并未起到显著的调节作用；（3）供应链风险对于企业投资效率的影响在非国有企业样本、供应商集中度高、客户集中度高的企业样本中更为明显；（4）企业为应对供应链风险会储备更多的存货，同时企业的存货周转率也会提升，这种提升是通过提升平均存货和营业成本实现的。
英文摘要：	The supply chain is the core vein of modern economic operation. For enterprises, establishing a good supply chain relationship is conducive to promoting cross-industry and collaborative development, strengthening effective connections from production to consumption, and achieving better future development. Supply chain risk is a potential threat that exploits the vulnerability of the supply chain system, causing damage to it and bringing losses to upstream and downstream enterprises as well as the entire supply chain. Investment is a core economic activity of modern enterprises. Achieving valuable investment is highly likely to help enterprises achieve innovation breakthroughs and market expansion. Therefore, whether an enterprise's investment is valuable and reasonable has become a focus of attention. Investment efficiency refers to an enterprise's ability to rationally allocate resources, optimize decision-making processes, and invest limited funds in areas that can generate the greatest benefits. It is related to the enterprise's future development, value enhancement, and sustainable development. Given the importance of the supply chain, enterprises' investment decisions may be influenced by risk factors from the supply chain. This paper conducts research based on this, exploring whether supply chain risk affects enterprises' investment decisions and investment efficiency, and the role played by the risk-taking level of managers in this process. The aim of this paper is to provide theoretical references for enterprises on how to correctly recognize and respond to supply chain risks. This paper selects all A-share listed companies in China from 2014 to 2023 as research samples. It uses Python software and the Word2Vec method to manually process and analyze the content of the MD&A section to measure supply chain risk, and uses the Richardson model to measure the investment efficiency of enterprises. The final results of this paper show: (1) The existence of supply chain risk actually forces enterprises to be more cautious and make more reasonable plans for capacity investment, thereby improving investment efficiency. This improvement is achieved by using the risk-averse psychology of management to suppress overinvestment and serve as a risk warning to improve underinvestment. This conclusion remains valid after replacing the explanatory and explained variables and conducting endogeneity tests. (2) Regarding the risk-taking level of managers, manager confidence significantly inhibits the impact of supply chain risk on investment efficiency, while the gender ratio and financial background of the management team do not play a significant moderating role. (3) The impact of supply chain risk on enterprise investment efficiency is more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprise samples, samples with high supplier concentration, and samples with high customer concentration. (4) To cope with supply chain risks, enterprises will reserve more inventories, and at the same time, the inventory turnover rate of enterprises will also increase. This increase is achieved by raising the average inventory and operating costs.
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