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论文编号：	15107
作者编号：	2320224279
上传时间：	2024/12/10 14:15:51
中文题目：	面向行车事故扰动的地铁站点韧性评价研究
英文题目：	Research on Resilience Evaluation of Subway Stations Facing Traffic Accident Disturbance
指导老师：	张建勇
中文关键字：	行车事故；韧性评价；层次分析法；模糊综合评价法
英文关键字：	Traffic accident；Resilience evaluation；Analytic hierarchy process；Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method
中文摘要：	随着城镇化建设的不断推进，响应“两新一重”建设，全国多个城市均在高效推动轨道交通发展，节能环保、准时便捷等诸多优点使得轨道交通成为市民出行的重要选择。轨道交通诸多优点中正点率是相较其他城市交通方式的关键优势，如若因设备运行不畅、司机臆测行车、人员管理不善等原因发生行车事故，轻则造成延误晚点、重则对乘客生命财产安全造成损害，可见行车事故的扰动对地铁站点而言是不容小觑的。 行车事故的发生与解决是地铁站点内人员、设备、环境、管理四方面因素共同作用的结果，为更充分的研究这一动态作用过程，本文引入韧性理论，从扰动前的保持能力、扰动中的吸收能力、扰动后的响应能力、恢复能力、优化能力，共三阶段五大能力着手，以期进一步促进地铁站点的安全高效运营。 本文首先借助文献研究，结合运营实际对地铁站点的扰动、行车事故、韧性理论与评价等进行阐述与定义。其次，利用事故致因理论案例分析天津地铁近年来多条行车事故，研判与归类事故的成因以确立初步指标，再通过德尔菲三轮专业筛选确定最终评价指标。再次，利用层次分析法确定指标权重后，用模糊综合评价法完成最终模型搭建。最后，以天津地铁10个站点为实例进行横向与纵向分析，纵向上得出限制站点韧性提升的薄弱指标及影响程度，横向上以综合韧性水平为标尺进行各站间韧性对比，进而有针对性地提出改进意见及措施。本文搭建的评价模型对天津地铁完善站点日常运营有较高适用性，并为其他城市优化轨道交通、提高列车运行稳定性等方面提供新的视角与一定借鉴意义。
英文摘要：	With the continuous advancement of urbanization construction, in response to the "two new and one heavy" construction, many cities across the country are effectively promoting the development of rail transit, energy saving, environmental protection, punctuality and convenience, and many other advantages make rail transit an important choice for citizens to travel.One of the key advantages of subway transportation compared to other urban transportation modes is its punctuality rate. If accidents occur due to malfunctioning equipment, driver misjudgment, or poor personnel management, they can cause delays or even endanger the lives and property of passengers. Therefore, the disturbance caused by traffic accidents in subway stations cannot be underestimated. The occurrence and resolution of traffic accidents are the result of the combined effect of four factors: personnel, equipment, environment, and management within subway stations. To study this dynamic interaction process more fully, this thesis introduces the resilience theory and starts from the five major capabilities in three stages: the maintenance capacity before disturbance, the absorption capacity during disturbance, and the response capacity, recovery capacity, and optimization capacity after disturbance, with the expectation of further promoting the safe and efficient operation of subway stations. This thesis first elaborates and defines the disturbance of subway stations, traffic accidents, resilience theory and evaluation by means of literature research and in combination with the actual operation.Secondly, the thesis analyzes a number of traffic accidents in Tianjin Metro in recent years by using accident causation theory cases, studies and classifies the causes of accidents to establish preliminary indicators, and then determines the final evaluation indicators through three rounds of Delphi professional screening.Thirdly, after the index weights are determined by AHP, the final model is built by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Finally, taking 10 stations of Tianjin Metro as examples, the horizontal and vertical analysis is carried out, and the weak indicators and influence degree limiting the improvement of the toughness of the stations are obtained vertically, and the toughness of the stations is compared horizontally with the comprehensive toughness level, and then the improvement suggestions and measures are put forward accordingly.The evaluation model constructed in this thesis has high applicability to the daily operation improvement of Tianjin Metro stations and offers a new perspective and certain references for other cities to optimize their rail transit and enhance the stability of train operation.
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