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论文编号：	15038
作者编号：	2320213493
上传时间：	2024/12/9 18:14:41
中文题目：	H银行城投债投资信用风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Credit Risk Management of H Bank''''s Municipal Bond Investment
指导老师：	王永进
中文关键字：	城投债，信用风险管理，区域集中度，银行，预警
英文关键字：	Municipal bonds, Credit risk management, Regional concentration, Banks, Early warning
中文摘要：	城投债是指城投公司公开发行的公司债券以及银行间债券。城投债作为地 方政府融资的重要渠道，近年来发行规模迅速扩大，对地方经济建设和基础设 施建设起到了关键作用。然而，随着城投债规模的增长，城投债的信用风险也 日益凸显，成为市场关注的焦点。城投债信用风险特征相较于其他种类信用债 存在较大的不同，城投债的信用风险影响因素主要来源于三个方面，分别为区 域经济及地方财政实力、发行主体自身经营情况和宏观环境及监管政策。 H 银行现阶段的城投债投资规模已超过2000亿元，信用风险管理现状在授 信准入环节、投资环节和投后管理环节建立了一些标准和评价体系，但仍然存 在着准入环节缺少区域评价体系、投资环节过度依赖于外部评级、投后管理措 施单一和违约预警机制缺失等问题。本文从信用风险管理制度顶层设计出发， 对 H 银行城投债投资信用风险管理体系建设思路分为三个步骤。首先，针对影 响城投债信用风险最重要的因素区域经济及地方财政实力，本文创新性的提出 了构建区域评价指标体系，根据评价指标体系将全国30个省份进行分层管理， 在区域分层管理的基础上对区域城投债投资实施集中度管控。其次，在有了各 个区域集中度管控的基础上，对区域内单个主体构建评价机制，在区域额度总 量控制的情况下，优先选择区域内的排名靠前的优质主体进行投资。同时，构 建了一套违约预警机制，提出了三个预警指标，分别为商票逾期、信托融资和 租赁融资占比、负面舆情。通过这些研究，可以更好地理解城投债的风险特征 和管理策略，为投资者和政策制定者提供决策支持，同时也为城投债市场的健 康发展提供理论依据。
英文摘要：	Municipal bonds refer to corporate bonds and interbank bonds publicly issued by municipal companies. As an important channel for local government financing, municipal bonds have rapidly expanded in issuance scale in recent years, playing a key role in local economic and infrastructure construction. However, with the growth of the scale of municipal bonds, the credit risk of municipal bonds has become increasingly prominent and has become a focus of market attention. The credit risk characteristics of municipal bonds are significantly different from other types of credit bonds. The credit risk influencing factors of municipal bonds mainly come from three aspects: regional economic and local fiscal strength, the issuer's own operating conditions, and the macro environment and regulatory policies. At present, H Bank's urban investment bond investment scale has exceeded 200 billion yuan. The credit risk management status has established some standards and evaluation systems in the credit admission, investment, and post investment management stages. However, there are still problems such as the lack of regional evaluation systems in the admission stage, excessive dependence on external ratings in the investment stage, single post investment management measures, and the lack of default warning mechanisms. Starting from the top-level design of credit risk management system, this article divides the construction ideas of H Bank's municipal bond investment credit risk management system into three steps. Firstly, in response to the most important factors affecting the credit risk of municipal bonds, such as regional economy and local fiscal strength, this article innovatively proposes the construction of a regional evaluation index system. Based on the evaluation index system, 30 provinces in China will be managed in layers, and concentration control will be implemented for regional municipal bond investment on the basis of regional layer management. Secondly, based on the concentration control of each region, an evaluation mechanism is constructed for individual entities within the region. Under the total quota control of the region, priority is given to selecting high-quality entities ranked high within the region for investment. At the same time, a default warning mechanism has been established, proposing three warning indicators: overdue commercial bills, proportion of trust financing and leasing financing, and negative public opinion. Through these studies, we can better understand the risk characteristics and management strategies of municipal bonds, provide decision support for investors and policy makers, and also provide theoretical basis for the healthy development of the municipal bond market.
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