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论文编号：	1466
作者编号：	2008088
上传时间：	2010/1/14 9:34:47
中文题目：	基于情景规划的企业战略选择与实施研究
英文题目：	Studies of Enterprise Strategy Selection and Implemention Based on Scenario Planning
指导老师：	薛有志
中文关键字：	情景规划;动态战略;战略管理;不确定性
英文关键字：	Scenario Planning;Dynamic Strategy;Strategic Management;Uncertainty
中文摘要：	环境一直都是企业发展所关注的课题。环境变化在一定程度上决定着企业的发展方向，甚至是生死存亡。企业要想实现持续经营，必须正确认识环境因素，合理分析环境因素。而在中国企业的战略实践中，大部分企业仍然停留在静态管理的阶段，战略管理以高层为主导操作，上下观念不一，缺少科学依据。 情景规划理论是针对环境不确定性开创的战略管理理论，在国外已经发展成为战略管理的主流理论之一。而在国内，情景规划理论尚未得到企业的认识和认同，甚至还遭到一些人的质疑。 本文正是基于这样一个背景，对基于情景规划的动态战略管理理论进行一个论述和分析。希望借此能够为国内企业的战略规划实践起到积极的借鉴和指导意义。 情景规划的产生和发展，对应的是战略管理由静态战略向动态战略的转变。一方面，管理理论进一步认识到战略管理的多因素构成，以及明茨伯格提出的“三重谬误”通过管理调整可以得以解决；另一方面，管理实践由先前的处于两种极端的“红灯模式”和“绿灯模式”向“黄灯模式”转变，管理操作更具实用性。情景规划是一套在高度不确定的环境中帮助企业进行高瞻远瞩的方法。它是以对未来的结构化思考和多维度分析为基础的，是对主动应对未来提出发展规划的方法，是一种创造性的思维模式。 情景规划与传统的战略规划有所差别，但二者仍然存在着密不可分的联系，在实践中企业往往将二者综合利用，进行不同周期的战略管理和调整。基于情景规划的战略选择和实施，是一个循环迭代的过程，包括两大环节，六个基本步骤。第一个环节是基于情景规划的战略选择。第一步是阐述经营理念，对公司内部资源和能力进行分析，明确企业的核心能力；第二步是明确竞争定位，通过对环境的分析，明确企业在市场中的地位；第三步是进行情景开发，通过发现驱动因素，开发和构建多个情景；第四步是选择战略方案，基于情景以及企业实际情况拟定战略备选方案，通过风洞测试和利益相关者测试，选择相对较优的方案。第二个环节是基于情景规划的战略实施。首先是通过战略分解，将战略目标落实到各级责任中心，再通过制度建设，保障战略执行；其次是进行指标监控，发现企业内外部的变化，开展动态管理，进行战略的滚动调整。在情景规划操作中，组织管理也尤为重要。情景规划的操作要求设立专门的责任部门，同时设立临时性规划小组，推进战略分析和执行。 壳牌、UPS公司和诺基亚三家集团都是国际知名的优秀企业，他们在战略管理中运用情景规划，实现了企业的不断发展壮大。壳牌公司是情景规划的实践先锋，在多年的实践中积累了丰富的经验，并且通过情景规划有效的发现了未来环境的各种变化，成功规避了企业经营中的风险，逐步成长壮大。UPS集团也通过应用情景规划不断调整业务发展，确立了物流领域的领军地位。诺基亚公司利用情景规划的方法实现创新发展，保持了行业领先地位。
英文摘要：	Environment has been highly concerned by enterprises as the external changes to some extent determine the direction of enterprises’ development. Sometimes, it even plays a fatal role in the survival of a business. To pursue sustainable development, enterprises must have correct understanding and rational analysis of environmental factors. However, most Chinese enterprises are now still stuck in the stage of static management. The management decisions are mainly made by the senior management teams and lack scientific guidance. The Scenario Planning Theory which was created in response to environmental uncertainty in the strategic management has become a main stream management theory overseas. But in China, the theory has not yet been recognized by businesses, and even met with some skepticism. Based on this, the article intends to discuss and analysis the dynamic strategic management theory based on scenario planning, and hopes to provide some reference and guidance for domestic enterprises’ practice in strategic planning. The emergence and development of scenario planning was in response of the shift from static strategic management to a dynamic one. On one hand, there’s increasing recognition of the multi-factors in the constitution of strategic management, as well as Henry Mintzberg’s idea that the three basic fallacies of the process could be solved by management adjustments. On the other hand, the management practice is moving from the two extreme models of “Red-light” and “Green-light” to a more moderate “Yellow-light” model, making the management operation more practical. Scenario planning is the approach that aims to help enterprises to get a visionary sight amid high uncertainty. It is based on structural thinking and multi-dimensional analysis of the future, and an initiative proposed for future development. It is also an innovative model of thinking. There are differences between scenario planning and traditional strategic planning, but they are also closely connected with each other. In practice, enterprises always combine the two approaches to adjust strategic management in different period. Scenario-based strategic option and implementation is a cyclic process, including two stages and six basic steps. The first stage is to choose the strategies. It has four steps: the first is to set out business idea, analysis the company's internal resources and capabilities, and figure out the core competitiveness. The second step is to make sure the enterprise’s position in the market, through analysis on environment. The third step is scenario development, building and developing various scenarios based on key divers. And the fourth step is to select a proper strategic plan based on the enterprise actual situation, after wind tunnel test and stakeholder analysis. The second stage is the implementation of strategies. Firstly, enterprise should decompose strategies and allocate strategic goals to different level of responsible entities. It needs to ensure the implementation of strategies by system construction. Secondly, enterprise should be aware of external changes through monitoring indexes and adjust strategies based on dynamic management theory. Organization management is particularly important in the implementation of scenario planning, as the implementation needs to be pushed by special responsible departments as well as temporary working teams. Successful enterprises such as Royal Shell, UPS and Nokia have all achieved sustainable growth helped by scenario planning in their strategic management. As a pioneer in the practice of scenario planning, Royal Shell has successfully avoided risks and realized gradual growth by monitoring environmental changes through scenario planning. UPS has also secured its leadership in global logistics industry by applying scenario planning to consistently adjust its business development. And Nokia has using scenario planning to help itself maintain innovation capacity. By discussing the three companies’ cases, this thesis is trying to further explain the approach of strategic management based on scenario planning and illustrate difficulties and misunderstanding in practice, in an aim to provide some valuable guidance for enterprises.
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