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论文编号：	14631
作者编号：	1120191040
上传时间：	2024/6/5 15:48:35
中文题目：	客户风险信息披露对企业投资的影响
英文题目：	The Impact of Customer Risk Information Disclosure on Corporate Investment
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	供应链风险；客户风险信息披露；固定资产投资；金融资产投资；商业信用供给
英文关键字：	Supply chain risk; Customer risk disclosure; Fixed investment assets; Financial assets investment; Trade credit provision
中文摘要：	随着全球化进程的不断加速和竞争环境的日趋激烈，供应链关系逐渐成为企业核心竞争力的重要组成部分。然而，稳定的供应链关系在促进企业间互利共赢的同时，也将供应链上下游企业的风险绑定到了一起，链条中任何一个环节断裂都会引发“多米诺骨牌”效应，波及供应链中关联企业的生产经营甚至生死存亡，如何降低供应链风险日益成为供应链管理中不容小觑的问题。尤其是当前全球多重危机叠加的背景下，诸多不确定性因素的骤增进一步加剧了供应链风险，给供应链的安全稳定带来了巨大挑战。在此背景下探究如何维持供应链安全稳定、加强供应链韧性对于维护国家经济安全、保障我国实体经济稳定运行、助力企业高质量发展至关重要。基于此，本文选取2009-2022年我国A股上市公司的数据作为研究样本，并收集整理其前五大客户为上市公司的年报管理层讨论与分析部分的文本分析数据，从供应链风险应对视角考察了客户风险信息披露如何影响企业的投资决策。具体而言，本文分别从企业的固定资产投资、金融资产投资和商业信用供给三个方面展开研究。本文主要研究发现如下： 第一，通过对客户风险信息披露与企业固定资产投资的研究，本文发现：（1）客户风险信息披露显著降低了企业固定资产投资水平，且将客户风险信息细分为市场风险信息、经营风险信息和财务风险信息后，无论是客户市场风险信息、经营风险信息还是财务风险信息的披露均会显著降低企业固定资产投资。（2）影响机制检验显示，客户风险信息披露导致企业未来经营风险提高和融资约束加剧，从而降低了企业进行固定资产投资的动机和能力。（3）本文从对客户依赖程度、企业融资约束水平、经济政策不确定性三个方面进行异质性检验，结果显示，企业对客户依赖程度越高、企业融资约束越严重以及经济政策不确定性水平越高时，客户风险信息披露对企业固定资产投资的影响越显著。（4）通过更换客户风险信息披露度量方式、更换固定资产投资度量方式、Heckman两阶段法、工具变量检验、PSM检验、熵平衡检验以及风险信息有效性检验等一系列稳健性测试后，结果依然稳健。 第二，通过对客户风险信息披露与企业金融资产投资的研究，本文发现：（1）客户风险信息披露与企业金融资产投资存在显著正相关关系，说明企业有动机增加金融资产投资提高资产的流动性来应对客户风险。具体将客户风险信息细分为市场风险信息、经营风险信息和财务风险信息后，仅客户经营风险信息披露会显著促进企业金融资产投资水平的增加，客户市场风险信息披露和客户财务风险信息披露与企业金融资产投资之间不存在显著相关性，说明企业金融资产投资决策对客户不同类型风险信息的反应具有异质性。（2）机制检验发现，企业金融资产投资通过“投资替代”效应和“蓄水池”效应应对客户风险信息披露所引发的企业固定资产投资不足和资金短缺问题。（3）本文从企业对客户依赖程度、企业融资约束水平以及股票市场风险三个方面进行异质性检验，结果显示，企业对客户依赖程度越高、企业融资约束越严重以及股票市场风险越低时，客户风险信息披露对企业金融资产投资的影响越显著。（4）本文通过更换客户风险信息披露度量方式、更换金融资产投资度量方式、Heckman两阶段法、工具变量检验、PSM检验、熵平衡检验以及风险信息有效性检验等一系列稳健性测试后，结果依然稳健。 第三，通过对客户风险信息披露与企业商业信用供给的研究，本文发现：（1）客户风险信息披露显著降低了企业商业信用供给水平，具体将客户风险信息披露类型区分为市场风险披露、经营风险披露和财务风险披露后，发现客户经营风险信息披露与企业商业信用供给显著负相关，而客户市场风险信息披露和客户财务风险信息披露与企业商业信用供给之间不存在显著相关性，说明企业商业信用供给决策对客户不同类型风险信息的反应具有异质性。（2）影响机制检验显示，客户风险信息披露导致企业对客户违约风险感知增加，并降低了企业贷款可获得性、增加了企业贷款成本，从而降低了企业为客户提供商业信用的动机和能力。（3）异质性检验结果显示，当客户集中度越高、客户可替代性越低以及企业业务越为单一时，客户风险信息披露对企业商业信用供给的抑制效应越显著，意味着企业对客户依赖程度越高，客户风险披露对企业的影响越大，企业越可能减少对客户的商业信用供给来降低客户对企业的风险溢出。（4）通过更换客户风险信息披露度量方式、更换商业信用供给度量方式、Heckman两阶段法、工具变量检验、PSM检验、熵平衡检验以及风险信息有效性检验等一系列稳健性测试后，结果依然稳健。 本文可能存在以下研究贡献：第一，本文从供应链风险应对视角探究了企业如何通过改变投资组合策略以应对客户风险，为供应链风险防范措施的相关研究提供了新的证据。目前关于客户风险对供应商企业行为决策影响的相关研究相对较少，已有文献主要从企业现金持有决策、创新、资本结构调整以及信息披露等角度进行研究，却鲜有文献关注企业如何改变投资策略应对客户风险。与本文最为相近的是Chiu et al.（2019）的研究，他们研究了客户风险披露对企业投资效率的影响，认为客户风险信息披露得越多，供应商企业投资效率越高。但不同于Chiu et al.（2019）的研究，他们更侧重于探究风险信息披露的详细程度，从“信息观”的角度分析了客户风险披露对企业投资效率的影响，而本文则更为注重风险信息的具体内容，从“风险观”的角度阐述了不同类型风险信息对企业投资决策的影响。另外，我国资本市场的信息环境相较于美国成熟的资本市场也具有一定差距，同时，我国企业对客户的依赖程度也远高于美国企业，却尚未有文献基于我国制度背景考察客户风险信息披露对供应商企业投资决策的影响，本文则补充了中国情景下企业如何改变投资策略应对潜在客户风险的相关文献。 第二，本文从供应链这一重要利益相关者视角拓展了风险信息披露经济后果的相关文献。现阶段国内对风险信息披露的研究，大多从企业的资本市场动机和经济后果对风险信息披露进行研究，仅有少量文章从客户年报披露的风险信息角度考察了客户文本信息是如何影响供应商企业的股票市场反应、现金持有水平以及投资效率等。风险信息披露作为具有前瞻性和风险警示效应的信息，不光在资本市场上发挥着重要作用，对于企业了解供应链关联企业风险状况以及评估市场需求情况，发现“供应链”线条上可能存在的风险，并及时采取应对措施也同样至关重要。本文则从客户这一重要利益相关者视角验证了风险信息披露的供应链溢出效应，为从供应链视角理解风险信息披露的经济后果提供了重要的经验证据。 第三，本文将风险信息细分为市场风险、经营风险和财务风险三类，从多维度风险信息披露视角为不同类别的风险信息披露经济后果的异质性提供了经验证据，并为风险信息披露指标的度量做出了贡献。Campbell et al.（2014）指出，已有关于风险信息披露的相关研究之所以存在“无效观”、“风险观”和“信息观”三类不同观点，是由于之前的研究没有区分具体风险信息类型导致的。本文克服了已有关于风险信息披露度量指标的局限性，对风险信息细分为市场风险、经营风险和财务风险三类，分别从年报中爬取具体类别的风险信息作为本文风险信息的度量指标。一方面，为不同类型的风险信息披露的经济后果是否存在差异提供了证据，同时，本文所构建的风险信息披露度量指标包含了风险具体内容，具有更高的信息含量。 第四，本文从供应链环境不确定性视角，丰富了企业投资决策影响因素的相关研究。已有研究主要从经济政策不确定性、政治不确定性以及贸易政策不确定性等宏观环境的不确定性视角对企业投资决策的影响进行研究（Gulen and Ion，2016；饶品贵和张会丽，2015；李凤羽和杨墨竹，2015）。而客户作为供应商企业的主要收入来源，供应商企业需要依据客户信息预测其未来需求、估计预期的销售收入和现金流进而调整企业自身投资决策，却鲜有文献从供应链环境不确定性视角探究客户风险信息披露如何影响企业投资行为。本文运用供应商与客户上下游企业关系的独特场景，从客户年报的风险信息披露出发，深入考察客户的年报风险信息披露对供应商企业投资决策的影响，有助于丰富企业投资决策影响因素的相关文献。
英文摘要：	In the context of accelerating globalization and increasingly competitive environments, supply chain relationships have emerged as a crucial component of a firm’s core competitiveness. Stable supply chain relationships, while facilitating mutual benefits among businesses, also bind the risks of upstream and downstream enterprises together. A disruption in any part of the chain can trigger a domino effect, impacting the production, operations, and even the survival of associated enterprises within the supply chain. Consequently, mitigating supply chain risks has become an increasingly significant issue in supply chain management. Particularly in the current era, overlapping global crises, the surge in uncertainties further exacerbates supply chain risks, posing substantial challenges to the security and stability of supply chains. Therefore, it is crucial to explore strategies that maintain supply chain security and enhance resilience. These measures are essential for safeguarding national economic security, ensuring the stable operation of the physical economy, and supporting the high-quality development of enterprises. This study selects data from A-share listed companies in China from 2009 to 2022 and adopts text analysis from the management discussion and analysis section of the annual reports of these companies’ top five customers, examining how the disclosure of customer risk information affects the investment decisions of supplier. Specifically, the research investigates the impacts on fixed asset investment, financial asset investment, and trade credit supply of suppliers. The main findings of this study are as follows: First, this study examines the relationship between customer risk information disclosure and firm fixed asset investment. This research reveals that the disclosure of customer risk information significantly reduces corporate investment in fixed assets. This reduction is consistent across different types of risk information disclosure, including market risk, operational risk, and financial risks. The study suggests that such disclosures lead to increased perceived future operational risks and heightened financing constraints for firms, thereby reducing their willingness and ability to invest in fixed assets. Furthermore, the impact of customer risk disclosure on fixed asset investment is more pronounced in firms with higher dependency on clients, greater financing constraints, and higher economic policy uncertainty. The robustness of these findings is confirmed through various tests, including alternative metrics for customer risk information disclosure and fixed asset investment, Heckman's two-stage method, instrumental variable tests, Propensity Score Matching (PSM), and entropy balancing, all of which uphold the baseline results. Secondly, this study examines the relationship between customer risk information disclosure and firm financial asset investment. This study finds a positive association between customer risk information disclosure and corporate financial asset investment, indicating firms’ strategic shift towards enhancing asset liquidity to counteract customer risks. This positive relationship is particularly evident with operational risk disclosures, whereas market risk and financial risk disclosures show no significant correlation. This suggests a nuanced corporate response to different types of customer risk information. The mechanism analysis shows that “investment substitution” and “reservoir” effects as firms’ strategies to mitigate the repercussions of reduced fixed asset investment and capital shortages triggered by customer risk disclosures. The influence of customer risk information on financial asset investment becomes more significant with increasing client dependency, tighter financing constraints, and higher economic policy uncertainty. The robustness of these insights is validated through various methods, including alternative measures of customer risk information disclosure and corporate financial asset investment, Heckman's two-stage method, instrumental variable tests, and PSM, underscoring the reliability of this study’s conclusions. Third, this study explores the relationship between customer risk information disclosure and the provision of trade credit by firms. The results show that customer risk disclosure significantly lower the level of trade credit provision, with operational risk disclosures showing a significant negative correlation, while market and financial risk disclosures do not show a significant relationship. This indicates that firms’ decisions on trade credit provision are heterogeneously affected by different types of customer risk information. The mechanism involves increased perceptions of customer default risk, reduced loan availability, and higher loan costs, thus diminishing firms’ motivation and ability to offer commercial credit. The results of heterogeneity tests suggest that the suppressive effect of client risk disclosure on trade credit provision is notably stronger for firms with higher customer concentration, lower customer substitutability, and more specialized operations, suggesting that higher customer dependency amplifies the impact of risk disclosures, firms might reduce the trade credit extended to their customer to minimize the risk spillover. Robustness tests with alternative measures and methods also support these conclusions, including alternative measurement of customer risk information disclosure and provision of trade credit, Heckman’s two-stage method, instrumental variable tests, PSM, and entropy balancing. This study potentially contributes to research in several ways: Firstly, by exploring how supplier firms adapt their investment decisions in response to customer risks, this study provides new evidence for measures to mitigate supply chain risks. Current literature on the impact of customer risks on supplier firms’ decision-making is relatively scarce, with existing studies primarily focusing on decisions regarding cash holdings, innovation, capital structure adjustment, and information disclosure, but seldom addressing how firms alter investment strategies to counter customer risks. The closest research to this study is by Chiu et al. (2019), which examined the impact of customer risk disclosures on firms’ investment efficiency, suggesting that more extensive customer risk disclosures are associated with higher investment efficiency among supplier firms. However, unlike Chiu et al. (2019), which mainly explored the detail level of risk information disclosures, and the impact of customer risk disclosure on corporate investment efficiency from an “information perspective”. This study delves into the specific content of risk information, discussing from a "risk perspective" how different types of risk information affect corporate investment decisions. Additionally, the information environment in China’s capital market, compared to the mature U.S. market, has notable differences. Chinese firms also tend to have a higher dependency on their clients than U.S. firms, yet there has been little research based on the Chinese institutional context examining the impact of customer risk information disclosure on supplier firms’ investment decisions. This study fills the gap in the literature on how firms in China adapt their investment strategies to mitigate potential client risks. Secondly, by examining the impact of customer risk information disclosure from the important stakeholder perspective of the supply chain, this paper provides empirical evidence for the “risk perspective” of risk information disclosure and enriches the literature on the economic consequences of risk information disclosure. Current domestic research on risk information disclosure mostly examines corporate capital market motivations and economic outcomes, with only a few studies investigating the impact of customer risk information disclosure on supplier firm investment efficiency by exploring how customer risk information disclosed in annual reports affects supplier firm stock market reactions, cash holdings, and investment efficiency. Risk information disclosure, with its forward-looking and risk-warning effects, plays a crucial role not only in capital markets but is also vital for firms to understand the risk status of supply chain linked enterprises, assess market demand, identify potential risks along the supply chain, and take timely countermeasures. This paper verifies the “risk perspective” of risk information disclosure from the viewpoint of the supply chain as an important stakeholder, by examining the impact of client risk information disclosure on supplier firm investment decision-making, unveiling the supply chain contagion effect of risk information, and providing significant empirical evidence for understanding the economic consequences of risk information disclosure from a supply chain perspective. Thirdly, this study expands the literature on the economic consequences of different types of risk information disclosures from a multi-dimensional perspective and contributes to the measurement methods for risk information indicators. Previous literature often used generic risk-related terms (e.g., risk, uncertainty, impact, volatility, potential, crisis, danger, ambiguity) from annual reports without specifying the types of risk. Campbell and Chen (2014) highlighted that the existing divergences in perspectives on risk information disclosure, namely, the “non-utility view”, ”risk view”, and “information view”, stem from previous studies’ failure to differentiate among specific types of risk information. This study overcomes the limitations of existing risk disclosure metrics by categorizing risk information into market, operational, and financial risks, and extracting specific risk information from annual reports as the risk indicators. By constructing risk disclosure metrics that include specific risk content, this study provides a more informative measure of risk information. Additionally, by investigating the heterogeneity in the economic consequences of market, operational, and financial risk disclosures, this study offers empirical evidence on the diversity of economic outcomes associated with different types of risk information. Fourth, this study extends the research on factors influencing corporate investment decisions from the perspective of supply chain environmental uncertainty. Existing research has primarily focused on the impact of macroeconomic uncertainties, such as economic policy uncertainty, political uncertainty, and trade policy uncertainty on corporate investment decisions (Gulen and Ion, 2016; Rao and Zhang, 2015; Li and Yang, 2015). However, as customers are the primary source of revenue for supplier firms, there is a need to adjust corporate investment decisions based on customer information to forecast future demand and estimate anticipated sales revenue and cash flows. Yet, there is scant literature exploring how the disclosure of customer risk information, within the context of supply chain environmental uncertainty, affects corporate investment behavior. By utilizing the unique setting of upstream and downstream relationships between suppliers and their customers, this study delves into how the disclosure of risk information in customer annual reports influences the investment decisions of supplier firms. This approach helps to broaden the literature on the factors that impact corporate investment decisions.
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