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论文编号：	14521
作者编号：	2320213863
上传时间：	2024/5/31 17:27:14
中文题目：	基于实物期权法的W公司项目投资决策优化研究
英文题目：	Research on Investment Decision Optimization of W Company''''s Project Based on Real Options Method
指导老师：	陆宇建
中文关键字：	决策投资；净现值法；实物期权法；期权定价模型
英文关键字：	decision-making investment; Net present value method; Real options method; options pricing model
中文摘要：	随着我国对农牧业发展的大力支持，近年来，农牧固废资源化利用成为一个新的热点。在此背景下，W公司采用净现值法对其农牧固废无害化处理项目进行投资决策。而该项目具有实物期权的明显特征，本文基于此，在净现值法的基础上通过实物期权法计算本项目收益。这对W公司的投资决策来说十分重要。 本文首先介绍了W公司农牧固废无害化处理项目的概况，并对项目中的某些问题提出了合理的假设和解释；其次预测项目投资所面对的经营风险和发展机遇可能会带来的不确定性，这些不确定性直接会影响企业项目的投资决策；再次，计算W公司农牧固废无害化处理一期项目的净现值，根据一期项目的净现值结果对其经济效益进行财务分析，阐明净现值法在项目投资决策中存在的局限性，以及没有确认期权价值所带来的不准确性；最后针对W公司项目存在的不确定性，阐述了实物期权法在该项目中的应用，为W公司在该项目的投资提供了更合理的指导。 经过研究，本文发现W公司农牧固废无害化处理项目由于前端原料提供、销售渠道和合作方等不确定因素预期会给本项目带来期权价值，且根据政策导向和市场环境，极有可能低估了本项目的盈利能力。通过对W公司农牧固废无害化处理项目中蕴含的实物期权性质进行分析后确认为扩张期权，选择适合W公司农牧固废无害化处理项目连续时间节点下扩张期权的模型——布莱克-舒尔斯模型，根据B-S模型计算时需要的相关数据获取和估算相应参数。最后通过各个参数带入计算后得到基于实物期权法的W公司农牧固废无害化处理项目中的实际价值，比净现值法计算的结果更为乐观，应该积极进行二期项目的投资。提醒投资者在进行投资时，应参考产业发展现状，并根据项目的实际状况和投资环境做出决策。
英文摘要：	In recent years, with China's strong support for the development of the agricultural and animal husbandry industry, the resource utilization of agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste has become an emerging hot topic. In this context, W Company adopts the net present value method to make investment decisions on its agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste harmless treatment project. And this project has obvious characteristics of physical options. Based on this, this dissertation calculates the income of this project through the physical options method on the basis of the net present value method. This is very important for W Company's investment decision. This dissertation first introduces the overall situation of W Company's agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste harmless treatment project, and makes reasonable assumptions and explanations for some issues in the project; Secondly, analyzing the risks and opportunities faced by the project will bring uncertain factors to the investment decision of the project, which will then affect the judgment of the investment decision; Once again, calculate the net present value of W Company's agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste harmless treatment project (Phase I), conduct a financial analysis of its economic benefits based on the net present value results of the Phase I project, and explain its limitations in project investment decision-making, as well as the uncertainty caused by the lack of confirmation of option value; Finally, based on the uncertain factors contained in W Company's project, the applicability of the real options method in this project is explained, and it provides more reasonable guidance for W Company's investment in this project. After research, this dissertation found that the W Company's agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste harmless treatment project may bring option value to this project due to uncertain factors such as front-end raw material supply, sales channels, and partners. Moreover, based on policy orientation and market environment, it is highly likely to underestimate the profitability of this project. By identifying the physical option types included in the W company's agricultural and animal husbandry solid waste harmless treatment project as expansion options, the Black Scholes model. Therefore, it is necessary to actively invest in the second phase of the project.
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