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论文编号：	14157
作者编号：	2320190795
上传时间：	2023/12/7 13:03:26
中文题目：	D新能源汽车供应链金融信用风险评价与溢出效应研究
英文题目：	Research on Credit Risk Evaluation and Spillover Effects of D New Energy Vehicle Supply Chain Finance
指导老师：	林润辉
中文关键字：	新能源汽车;供应链金融;金融风险;风险溢出
英文关键字：	New energy vehicles；Supply chain finance；Financial risks；Risk spillover
中文摘要：	作为我国融资结构改革、资金服务实体经济、服务中小企业的重要抓手，供应链金融正在经历快速发展的历程。然而，其在给参与主体带来利润的同时，也给市场带来了新的风险，特别是供应链金融业务之间的关联性，会使金融风险以链式形式不断扩散，这给企业发展与管理带来了新的挑战。新能源汽车作为供应链金融业务中较为集中的行业之一，其相关的供应链金融业务发展对我国经济高质量发展具有重要作用。因此，对于汽车制造商来说，急需更加科学和严谨的风险评估理论为企业良好发展保驾护航。 D汽车集团是我国汽车行业的大型骨干企业，其新能源汽车销量连续多年排名全国前10。受业务发展和国家政策是支持，D汽车集团也搭建了自身的供应链金融业务服务平台，提供了多种模式的产品。但从实际情况来看，其业务运行过程中违约风险事件不断，企业暴露在风险之下。因此，本文以D汽车集团为主要对象，使用数理模型评估企业的风险水平及企业间风险溢出情况，从而为企业发展提出更加科学的管理意见。 本文以D汽车集团及其新能源汽车锂离子电池供应链上的密切合作企业（比亚迪、宁德时代、欣旺达、赣锋锂业、国轩高科、广汇汽车、特锐德）为样本，利用KMV模型分析每个企业的违约距离和预期违约概率，分析D汽车集团及其上下游企业的风险情况，并利用TVP-VAR模型分析上下游企业与D汽车集团之间的风险溢出过程。研究发现，D汽车集团锂离子电池供应链上对企业整体信用风险水平较低，有利于整条供应链及其金融业务的良好运行，但在经历新冠肺炎这样的外部冲击时整体风险也在上涨。另外，供应链上游企业对D汽车集团的风险溢出水平均高于来自D汽车集团的风险溢入，而供应链下游企业对D汽车集团的风险溢出水平则均低于来自D汽车集团的风险溢入，这表明相对于核心企业D汽车集团汽车，供应链上游企业总体处于风险溢出地位，供应链下游企业则总体为风险溢入方，供应链股价波动风险总体呈现由上游向下游的传导过程。
英文摘要：	As an important lever for China’s financing structure reform, funds servicing the real economy, and serving small and medium-sized enterprises, supply chain finance is experiencing rapid development. However, while bringing profits to the participating entities, it also brings new risks to the market, especially the interconnectivity between supply chain finance businesses, which can cause financial risks to continuously spread in a chain-like manner, posing new challenges to enterprise development and management. As one of the industries with a relatively concentrated supply chain finance business, the development of supply chain finance business related to new energy vehicles plays an important role in China’s high-quality economic development. Therefore, for automobile manufacturers, there is an urgent need for more scientific and rigorous risk assessment theories to support the sound development of enterprises. D Automobile Group is a large backbone enterprise in China's automobile industry, with its sales of new energy vehicles ranking in the top 10 nationwide for consecutive years. With business development and support from national policies, D Automobile Group has also built its own supply chain finance service platform, providing various product models. However, from the actual situation, risk events of default continue to occur during its business operations, exposing the company to risks. Therefore, this thesis takes D Automobile Group as a major research object and uses mathematical models to evaluate the company’s risk level and inter-enterprise risk spillover, in order to propose more scientific management recommendations for enterprise development. This thesis takes D Automobile Group and its closely cooperating enterprises in the supply chain of lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles (BYD, CATL, LG Chem, Ganfeng Lithium, Guoxuan High-Tech, GHG, Teruide) as samples. The KMV model is used to analyze the default distance and expected default probability of each company, and analyze the risk situation of D Automobile Group and its upstream and downstream enterprises. The TVP-VAR model is used to analyze the risk spillover process between upstream and downstream enterprises and D Automobile Group. The research found that the overall credit risk level of D Automobile Group’s lithium-ion battery supply chain is relatively low, which is beneficial to the smooth operation of the entire supply chain and its financial business. However, the overall risk also increases when experiencing external shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the risk spillover level of upstream enterprises in the supply chain to D Automobile Group is higher than the risk spillover from D Automobile Group, while the risk spillover level of downstream enterprises to D Automobile Group is lower than the risk spillover from D Automobile Group. This indicates that compared to the core enterprise D Automobile Group, the upstream enterprises in the supply chain are generally in a risk spillover position, while the downstream enterprises are generally in a risk spillover-in position. The overall fluctuation risk of the supply chain stock price shows a transmission process from upstream to downstream.
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