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论文编号：	1415
作者编号：	032907
上传时间：	2009/12/15 22:48:46
中文题目：	我国上市公司知识资本估价及其业绩相性研究
英文题目：	Research on Both Valuation Models and Performance Relevance of Intellectual Capital of Listed Companies in China
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	知识资本 上市公司 实物期权 业绩相关性
英文关键字：	Intellectual capital Listed companies Real option Performance relevance
中文摘要：	知识资本是“公司中所有成员所知晓的能为企业在市场上获得竞争优势的事物之和”，包括员工的技能和知识(人力资本)、顾客忠诚(顾客资本)以及公司的组织文化、制度和运作中所包含的集体知识等(结构性资本)。知识资本随着科技进步和全球经济一体化进程，对企业生存发展和壮大日愈重要，知识资本可以使企业获取持续竞争优势，在企业价值中的比重不断增大，是企业创新和增值的源泉。 相对于实物资本，知识资本在企业价值中的比重不断增大。世界经济合作组织在一项研究报告中估计，在发达国家，以知识为基础的行业的产值已占到国内生产产值的50%以上。专家预言，知识对经济增长的贡献率，将可能由20世纪初的5%-20%提高到21世纪的80%。 本文在对知识资本概念、特性以及相关概念梳理的基础上，对已有的知识资本估价模型进行比较分析，发现已有估价模型中，无论非财务的方法，如：Skandia导航仪模型（Skandia navigator )、技术代理指数(Technology broker)等；还是财务的方法，如资产收益模型（Calculated Intangible Value）、VA1C (Value Added Intellectual Coefficient)、Tobin's Q值法和预期收益推算法等，都存在一定的不足之处。非财务的方法需要许多内部数据，指标繁多，已超出财务的范畴；财务的方法比较简单，估计数据容易获得，但它们忽略了知识资本收益的不确定性带来的风险等，以及收益的随机特性，有片面性；另外二者的估价理论基础比较薄弱，估价模型理论依据不足。所以本文尝试利用已有的财务理论和方法，建立知识资本的估价模型，并对所建模型进行数据分析。然后利用所建立的估价模型，选取我国上市公司2005、2006和2007年的样本数据，对我国上市公司知识资本及其业绩相关性进行实证研究，探讨知识资本与相关财务变量的关系，深化对知识资本的认识。同时将基于知识资本的随机估价模型下和VAIC模型下知识资本与公司业绩的相关性问题研究作比较，以提高研究结论的可靠性，并从中检验知识资本估价模型本身的适用性、合理性等。 本文除第一章绪论、第二章文献综述和第七章对全文的总结外，第三、四、五和六章为主体部分。具体来说，主要内容为： 第一章绪论，主要介绍本研究的背景和意义，研究内容和方法，研究思路、研究的创新点等内容。 第二章是文献综述，主要包括国内外知识资本概念、知识资本估价理论综述，和一般估价理论和实物期权理论综述，指出已有研究存在的问题，和本文要研究的内容。 第三章对知识资本的概念进行了界定，对其构成、特性进行了探讨，以加深对知识资本的理解和认识，并对于知识资本相关的一些概念作了比较和辨析。 第四章在第三章基础上，建立知识资本的随机定价模型。知识资本是一种智力资源，具有独特性、无形性、可规范性和难以模仿性等，能为企业带来未来的收益和提升企业竞争优势，增加企业的价值。但知识资本的收益具有随机性，本章将利用相关连续随机理论和实物期权理论，在如下情况建立知识资本的估价模型。第一、企业知识资本的构建和投资具有持续性，而一旦投入其付出便作为沉淀成本不可收回，因此知识资本投资具有作为不可逆(Irreversibility)项目的特点; 第二、如果把知识资本的投入成本和其收益相比，支出超过收益时，或者当收益低于变动成本时，说明再进一步的投入已经无利可图，那么投入就应该关闭（Shut down），这时知识资本的投资具有可以关闭项目的性质。并对所建模型进行数据分析和相关参数的讨论。 第五章利用第四章所建的估计模型，选取我国上市公司2005、2006和2007年的样本数据，对我国上市公司知识资本及其业绩相关性进行实证研究，通过进行相关分析和回归分析，从中探讨知识资本与相关财务和市场变量之间的关系，有助于对知识资本进一步的认识。实证研究结论有：知识资本与企业资产报酬率存在正相关关系，支持知识资本与会计业绩存在正相关关系； 知识资本与企业市场回报率存在正相关关系；知识资本与企业市账比之间存在正相关关系。 第六章将基于知识资本的随机估价模型下和VAIC模型下知识资本与公司业绩的相关性问题研究作比较，以提高研究结论的可靠性，并从中检验知识资本估价模型本身的适用性、合理性等。首先在VAIC模型下，对所选样本公司2005、2006和2007年的数据进行了相关分析和回归分析；然后将两种模型下知识资本业绩相关性问题进行比较。主要结论有：知识资本与企业资产报酬率存在正相关关系；知识资本与企业市场回报率具有正相关关系；知识资本与企业市账比之间存在低度负相关关系。 和基于知识资本的随机估价模型下知识资本与公司业绩的相关性研究相比可知：两模型都验证了知识资本与公司资产回报率之间具有显著的相关性；基于知识资本的随机估价模型下，知识资本与市账比之间存在显著的正相关关系，而VAIC模型下二者的正相关关系没有得到验证；基于知识资本的随机估价模型下，知识资本与公司在资本市场的年收益率之间存在显著的正相关关系，而VAIC模型下二者的正相关关系没有得到验证。 以上差异可能是因为VAIC模型计算完全依据静态的会计数据，而会计数据和市场数据相比，所反映的公司价值过于局限，而知识资本的随机估价模型则弥补这些不足。 第七章结论、意义与局限性。将对全文的主要结论进行归纳和总结，在此基础上总结对我国知识资本实践所具有的启示，最后探讨了本研究的局限和不足，以利于未来的进一步研究。
英文摘要：	Intellectual capital is that all members of the company understand the things which can get the competitive advantage for the enterprise in the market. It includes Human Capital, Customer Capital and Structural Capital which is the collective knowledge that is included in the company's organizational culture, systems and operations. Intellectual capital is important to survival and development of the enterprises as the scientific development and global economic integration process. Intellectual Capital can enable companies to obtain sustainable competitive advantage, which is increasing in the enterprise value. It is the source of the innovation and value-added. Relative to physical capital, the proportion of the Intellectual capital is increasing in the enterprise value. The Economic Cooperative Organization of the World in a research report estimated that knowledge-based industry output has accounted for more than 50% in domestic production of the developed countries. Experts predict that the contribution rate of the knowledge for economic growth would be rise from 5% -20% in the early 20th century to 80% in 21st century. In this paper, we analyzes the former valuation models of the Intellectual Capital on the basis of systemizing the conception、character and the relevant conception of intellectual capital. And we found that the former valuation models had weakness regardless of non-financial methods and financial methods, such as Skandia navigator, Technology broker, Calculated Intangible Value, VAIC, Tobin's Q and Expected Revenue Projection. The non-financial methods need many internal data. The indicators are numerous. They have been beyond the scope of the finance. The financial methods are very simple. The data can be easily collected. But they overlook the risks that the uncertainties of revenue of the intellectual capital caused. In addition, the estimation of theory basis of them was relatively weak. And the theoretical basis of the valuable models was insufficient. Therefore, we try to use financial theory and method to establish a valuation model for intellectual capital, and analyze it. Then we select the sample data of the listed companies in China in 2005, 2006 and 2007 by using valuation models. Then we research on the intellectual capital and its relevant performance to discuss the relation between intellectual capital and financial variables. It can deepen the understanding of the intellectual capital. At the same time, we have a comparison about conclusions of the study of the intellectual capital and its relevant performance under stochastic valuation model and VAIC model of intellectual capital in order to improve the reliability of conclusions of the study and test their applicability and rationality of the two valuation models of the intellectual capital. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter is literature review. The summary is in the seventh chapter. The remaining are the main contents. In second chapter, there is a literature review. It includes domestic and abroad concept of intellectual capital, the appraisal theory review of intellectual capital, general appraisal theory and the theory review of real options. The research has pointed out that the existing problems. And we study the contents of this article. In third chapter, the concept of intellectual capital is defined. Its composition, properties are discussed in order to deepen the understanding of intellectual capital. We also compare and analyze the concept of intellectual capital The fourth chapter establishes random pricing model on the basis of the third chapter. The intellectual capital is a kind of intellectual resources. And it is unique, intangible, and normative. It is difficult to imitate. The intellectual capital can bring about the future revenue, enhance competitiveness and increase value. However, the revenue of intellectual capital is random. This chapter will use relevant continuous stochastic theory and real options theory, and establish the valuation model in the following circumstances. Firstly, the construction and investment of intellectual capital is continuous. It can not be regained in case being inputted. Therefore, it is irreversible. Secondly, if comparing its input costs and revenue, the input should be terminated when the input is more than the revenue or revenue is lower than the variable cost. Then the investment of intellectual capital can be closed. We should discuss the data analysis and the relevant parameters. . In the fifth Chapter, we use the valuation model in the fourth Chapter and selects the sample data of the listed companies in 2005, 2006 and 2007. We have an empirical research on the intellectual capital and its relevance to the performance of the listed companies in China. It mainly makes the correlation analysis and the regression analysis to explore the relation between intellectual capital with related finance and market variables. It contributes to further understanding of intellectual capital. Main conclusions are as follows: Intellectual capital is positive with ROA, it is means that intellectual capital is positive with the performance of the listed companies; Intellectual capital is positive with return on stock market and M/B. In the sixth chapter, we have comparison research of relevance about intellectual capital and company performance under stochastic valuation model and VAIC model of intellectual capital in order to improve the reliability of conclusions of the study and to test the applicability, reasonable for the models used. First of all, we cope with sample data from 2005 to 2007 by means of the correlation analysis and the regression analysis; then we have comparison research of relevance about intellectual capital and company performance under stochastic valuation model and VAIC model of intellectual capital. Main conclusions are as follows：Intellectual capital is positive with ROA; Intellectual capital is positive with return on stock market but is lower negative with M/B. In conclusion, it is tested significantly that intellectual capital is positive with ROA under the two models. With stochastic valuation model, we can test that intellectual capital is positive with return on stock market and M/B significantly but it is not tested under VAIC model. These differences may result from that VAIC is based on accounting data and stochastic valuation model is based on market data. However, market data have more information than accounting data. The seventh chapter includes conclusion, significance and limitations. The main conclusions will be summarized and summed up. Then we summarize the revelations the practice of Intellectual capital of our country has. At last, we conclude the limitations and weakness in order to further research.
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