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论文编号：	14070
作者编号：	2120213270
上传时间：	2023/6/8 16:42:07
中文题目：	考虑老人偏好的家庭护理服务预约机制与调度方法研究
英文题目：	Appointment Mechanism and Scheduling Method of Home Care Service Considering the Preferences of the Elderly
指导老师：	梁峰
中文关键字：	家庭护理服务；预约调度；马尔科夫决策；带时间窗的车辆路径问题；前景理论
英文关键字：	Home care services; Appointment scheduling; Markov decision; VRPTW; Prospect theory.
中文摘要：	随着全球人口老龄化进程显著加快，我国医疗资源、护理资源、养老资源短 缺的问题逐渐凸显，老年人的医护康养成为民生领域重要的管理问题。家庭护理 服务在解决医疗资源短缺，提高医护资源利用率中有着独特的优势。我国家庭护 理服务发展发展起步较晚，目前仍处于初级发展阶段，开展此项服务的城市较少， 家庭护理服务人员的资源也较为稀缺，相关研究多集中在政策研究等宏观管理 上，而对其运作管理机制的研究较少，且研究集中于解决客户点已知的护理服务 人员调度路径规划上，未考虑将护理服务纳入预约调度范畴。而护理服务对象大 多为患有慢性病的老年人，其服务需求较为稳定，若将护理服务请求纳入提前预 约周期考虑，将大大提高护理服务人员与老人之间的匹配度，且在降低护理中心 运营成本的同时，提高老人的满意度。 因此，本文考虑老年人对护理服务的服务时间与服务人员的偏好，建立家庭 护理服务从提前预约期到护理服务当天的调度系统，共分为三个阶段，在提前预 约周期内，考虑老人的护理服务时间偏好以及位置偏好，基于马尔科夫决策过程 模型，平台将对到达系统的护理服务预约请求做出决策与排程；提前预约期结束， 服务开始前，考虑老人预约信息的服务类型偏好以及时间窗偏好，建立以护理中 心运营总成本最小为目标的带时间窗的路径规划模型，对护理服务当天护理人 员的服务路径进行规划，形成初始服务方案；在护理服务当天，考虑老人对原服 务方案分配的护理人员以及护理人员上面服务时间偏好，在老年人临时取消预 约、更改期望护理人员上门的服务时间窗、新增紧急护理需求这三个随机事件的 干扰下，引入前景理论对护理服务过程中老年人、护理人员、护理中心三大主体 的主观感知价值进行刻画，建立三大主体综合前景值最大的动态调度方案，在干 扰事件发生的时刻，对服务计划进行滚动式更新，生成对初始调度方案扰动最小 的路径重调度方案。通过动态规划中的值迭代策略与改进后的遗传算法，对每个 阶段的模型进行仿真数值算例计算，验证了本文所建立的家庭护理服务预约调 度系统模型及算法设计的有效性，并结合仿真算例求解与灵敏度分析结论，得出 家庭护理服务管理启示，最后对本文的不足及未来的研究展望进行总结。
英文摘要：	With the acceleration of the global population aging process, the shortage of medical resources, nursing resources and old-age resources in China has gradually become prominent, and the cultivation of medical care for the elderly has become an important management issue in the field of people's livelihood. Family nursing service has unique advantages in solving the shortage of medical resources and improving the utilization rate of medical resources. The development of home care service in China started late, and it is still in the primary development stage. There are few cities to carry out this service, and the resources of home care service personnel are scarce. The relevant research focuses on macro management such as policy research, but less on its operation and management mechanism, and the research focuses on solving the scheduling path planning of nursing service personnel with known customer points, without considering the inclusion of nursing service in the category of appointment scheduling. However, the nursing service targets are mostly elderly people with chronic diseases, and their service demand is relatively stable. If the nursing service request is considered in the advance appointment cycle, the matching degree between nursing service personnel and the elderly will be greatly improved, and the operating cost of the nursing center will be reduced, while the satisfaction of the elderly will be improved. Therefore, this thesis considers the preference of the elderly for nursing service time and service personnel, and establishes a scheduling system for home nursing service from the advance appointment period to the day of nursing service, which is divided into three stages. In the advance appointment period, considering the preference of the elderly for nursing service time and location, based on Markov decision process model, the platform will make decisions and schedule the nursing service appointment request that arrives at the system; At the end of the early appointment period, before the service starts, considering the service type preference and time window preference of the old people's appointment information, a path planning model with time window is established with the goal of minimizing the total operating cost of the nursing center, and the service path of the nursing staff on the day of nursing service is planned to form an initial service plan; On the day of nursing service, considering the preference of the elderly for the nurses assigned by the original service plan and the service time of the nurses, under the interference of three random events, namely, the elderly temporarily canceled the appointment, changed the service time window of the expected nurses, and added emergency nursing demand, the prospect theory was introduced to describe the subjective perceived value of the elderly, nurses and nursing centers in the process of nursing service, and a dynamic scheduling plan with the maximum comprehensive prospect value of the three subjects was established, and the service plan was updated in a rolling way at the time of interference events. Through the value iteration strategy in dynamic programming and the improved genetic algorithm, the model of each stage is calculated by simulation numerical examples, which verifies the effectiveness of the model and algorithm design of home care service reservation scheduling system established in this thesis. Combined with the simulation example solution and sensitivity analysis conclusion, the enlightenment of home care service management is obtained. Finally, the shortcomings of this thesis and the future research prospect are summarized.
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