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论文编号：	13974
作者编号：	1120170871
上传时间：	2023/6/7 10:57:52
中文题目：	公司战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响及其经济后果研究
英文题目：	Research on the Impact of Corporate Strategic Aggressiveness on Stock Mispricing and Its Economic Consequences
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	战略激进度;股票错误定价;信息不对称;经营不确定性;经济后果
英文关键字：	strategic aggressiveness; stock mispricing; information asymmetry; operational uncertainty; economic consequence
中文摘要：	?在创新驱动发展、经济结构升级和债务风险积聚的背景下，建立高质量的股票市场、提高直接融资比重成为促进经济高质量发展、化解潜在金融风险的重要路径。证监会主席易会满指出，“发展直接融资是资本市场的重要使命，提高直接融资比重是服务创新驱动发展战略的迫切要求，要充分发挥直接融资特别是股权融资风险共担、利益共享机制的独特作用”。习近平主席明确指出，要建设一个规范、透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的资本市场，促进金融风险防控和经济高质量发展。随着北交所、全面注册制等相继落地实施，我国股票市场在“量”上获得巨大发展。然而，要发挥股票市场提高公司经营质量、促进经济增长和维护社会稳定的作用，还必须在“质”上下功夫。股票市场的核心功能是通过定价机制实现资源优化配置，其定价效率是衡量股票市场发展质量的重要指标。在我国新兴加转型的股票市场中，股票价格往往严重偏离公司内在价值，产生股票错误定价（指股票在二级市场上的错误定价）。较为严重的股票错误定价不仅会降低资源配置效率，增加资本市场波动，甚至诱发系统性金融风险，引发社会动荡。基于以上现实背景，探究股票错误定价的影响因素及其机制是一个迫切而重要的课题，对于优化我国资本市场资源配置效率、防范重大金融风险、促进宏微观经济高质量发展具有重要的实践意义。 ? 从理论上看，关于股票错误定价影响因素的文献主要从市场因素（如，卖空限制、资本市场开放、噪音交易者、投资者过度自信、投资者情绪、异质信念等）、外部治理因素（如，机构投资者网络等）和公司内部因素（如，上市公司信息披露质量、会计政策选择、股权激励、股权质押、创新强度等）三个方面展开。就公司内部因素方面而言，已有文献均是从某个单一维度进行考察的，缺少从整体和更深层次的战略视角的考察。公司战略决定了公司经营的内部环境，全面统筹和影响其财务行为决策。公司战略定位不同，其业务特征、组织特征、信息环境和经营环境也会存在显著差异，这种差异必将影响投资者对公司内在价值的估计判断，进而影响股票错误定价的严重程度。以此为逻辑起点，本文进一步分析了公司战略定位差异影响股票错误定价的机制、边界条件。同时，本文还探讨了公司战略定位差异与股票错误定价交互作用对资本市场发展产生何种影响。 ? 具体来讲，本文从公司战略的激进程度视角，分四部分探究战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响及其经济后果。具体来讲，首先，本文试着探讨公司战略激进度可能对股票错误定价程度以及股票错误定价方向产生怎样的影响。然后，为了探求公司战略激进度影响股票错误定价的内在机制，本文从信息不对称视角分析了公司战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响。战略越激进的公司，越倾向于将资源配置到高风险、收益周期长的研发创新和新市场开拓中去，这将导致其因专有成本、融资需求、代理冲突、管控松散而信息披露质量较低，加剧公司与外部投资者之间的信息不对称，进而导致更严重的股票错误定价。本文还从经营不确定视角分析并检验了战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响。公司战略进度越高，经营不确定性也越高，这不仅使得投资者难以对公司价值形成稳定预期，也会加剧投资者非理性程度，同时还会降低市场套利有效性，导致更严重的股票错误定价。接着，为了明晰公司战略激进度影响股票错误定价的边界条件，本文从政策环境和外部公司治理环境视角进一步分析并检验了不同经济政策不确定性、不同分析师关注度、不同媒体关注度以及不同监管强度下，战略激进度对股票错误定价关系的影响是否存在差异。最后，本文考察了战略激进度与股票错误定价交互对资本市场发展的影响。错误定价相关文献指出，股票错误定价可能成为别有用心者谋取私利的工具，损害中小投资者利益，扰乱资本市场秩序，加剧资本市场动荡，诱发系统性金融风险。因此，本文进一步探究了战略激进度与股票错误定价的交互作用对未来资本市场稳定带来何种影响。 ? 按照以上研究思路，本文选取 2006-2021 年沪深 A 股上市公司（不包括科创板公司）为研究样本，实证检验了战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响、机制、边界条件以及经济后果，得出如下结论： ? 第一，战略激进度加大了股票错误定价程度，且主要表现为股价高估。在通过工具变量法、滞后自变量法、Heckman 两阶段、替换变量法进行内生性和稳健性检验后，战略激进度对股票错误定价的显著正向影响仍然成立。第二，基于信息不对称视角的实证结果表明，战略激进度显著加剧了公司与外部投资者之间的信息不对称，进而导致了更加严重的股票错误定价。更具体地，本文分别检验了盈余信息不对称和前瞻性信息不对称的中介作用，发现战略激进度不仅通过加剧盈余信息不对称，而且通过加剧前瞻性信息不对称导致了更严重的股票错误定价。基于经营不确定性视角的检验结果显示，战略激进度增加了公司经营不确定性，进而导致了股票错误定价。第三，基于政策环境差异的检验发现，公司战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响在高经济政策不确定性下更强。基于公司治理环境差异的检验发现，公司战略激进度对股票错误定价的影响在分析师关注度高、媒体关注度高的公司中更强，而在非处罚性监管强度高的公司中更弱。第四，经济后果检验发现，战略激进度与股票错误定价交互作用会进一步加剧公司过度负债和未来一期股价崩盘风险，影响资本市场稳定。 ? 总体来讲，本文丰富了战略激进度和股票错误定价的研究框架，在一定程度上为未来相关研究提供了启示。本文的结论有利于深化资本市场参与者深化对战略激进度与股票错误定价关系的理解，为其未来行为决策提供有益的理论参考。
英文摘要：	In the context of innovation-driven development, economic structural upgrading, and the accumulation of debt risks, establishing a high-quality stock market and increasing the proportion of direct financing have become important ways to promote high-quality economic development and defuse potential financial risks. Yi Huiman, chairman of China Securities Regulatory Commission, pointed out that "developing direct financing is an important mission of the capital market, and increasing the proportion of direct financing is an urgent requirement of the service innovation-driven development strategy. Direct financing, especially equity financing, should play the unique role of risk sharing and benefit sharing mechanism." Along with the Beijing Stock Exchange and the comprehensive registration system, the stock market has made great progress in "quantity". However, in order to play the role of the stock market in improving the quality of corporate management, promoting economic growth and maintaining social stability, we must also make efforts in "quality". The core function of the stock market is to realize the optimal allocation of resources through the pricing mechanism, and its pricing efficiency is an important index to measure the development quality of the stock market. In our emerging and transforming stock market, the stock price often deviates from the intrinsic value of the corporate seriously, resulting in stock mispricing(mispricing of a stock in the secondary market). Serious stock mispricing will not only reduce the efficiency of resource allocation, increase capital market volatility, but also induce systemic financial risks and social unrest. Based on the above background, it is an urgent and important topic to explore the influencing factors of stock mispricing and its mechanism, which is of great practical significance to optimize the efficiency of resource allocation in our capital market, prevent major financial risks and promote the high-quality development of macro and micro economy. Theoretically, the literature on influencing factors of stock mispricing mainly focuses on three aspects: market factors (such as short selling restrictions, capital market openness, noise traders, investor overconfidence, investor sentiment, and heterogeneous beliefs, etc.), external governance factors (such as institutional investor networks) ?and internal factors (such as the quality of information disclosure, accounting policy choices, equity incentives, equity pledge, innovation intensity, etc.). In terms of the internal factors of a corporate, the existing literatures are all conducted from a single dimension, and lack an overall and deeper strategic perspective. Corporate strategy determines the internal environment of a corporate's operation and comprehensively coordinates and influences its financial behavior decisions. Different strategic positioning will lead to significant differences in its business characteristics, organizational characteristics, information environment and operating environment. Such differences will certainly affect investors' estimation and judgment of the corporate's intrinsic value, and thus affect the severity of stock mispricing. Taking this as a logical starting point, this paper further analyzes the mechanism and boundary conditions of corporate strategic positioning difference affecting stock mispricing. At the same time, this paper also discusses the impact of the interaction between corporate strategic positioning and stock mispricing on the development of the capital market. Specifically, this paper investigate thoroughly the effect of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing and its economic consequences from the perspective of the aggressiveness degree of corporate strategy in four parts. Specifically, first of all, this paper attempts to investigate how corporate strategic aggressiveness may affect the extent and direction of stock mispricing. Then, in order to explore the internal mechanism that corporate strategic aggressiveness affects stock mispricing, this paper analyzes the effect of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing from the perspective of information asymmetry. The more aggressive a company's strategy is, the more inclined it is to allocate resources to high-risk, long-term R&D innovation and new market development. This not only leads to high business and operational complexity, but also may lead to lower information disclosure quality due to proprietary costs, financing needs, agency conflicts, management power, etc, and exacerbates information asymmetry between the company and external investors. Secondly, this article also analyzes and tests the effect of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing from the perspective of operational uncertainty. The higher the strategic aggressiveness, the higher the operational uncertainty, which not only makes it difficult for investors to form stable expectations of the company's value, but also increases the degree of investor irrationality. At the same time, it will also reduce the effectiveness of market arbitrage, leading to more serious stock mispricing. Thirdly, the external environment can affect company operations and the efficiency of stock pricing. This paper further analyzes and tests whether there are differences in the effect of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing relationships under different economic policy uncertainties, different analyst attention, different media attention, and different regulatory intensities from the perspective of the policy environment and external corporate governance environment, to clarify the boundary conditions under which the company's strategic aggressiveness affects stock mispricing. Finally, this paper examines the impact of stock mispricing under strategic aggressiveness on the development of capital markets. According to relevant literature on stock mispricing, stock mispricing can become a tool for individuals with ulterior motives to seek personal gain, harm the interests of small and medium-sized investors, disrupt the order of the capital market, and even bring turmoil to the capital market, inducing systemic financial risks. Therefore, this paper further explores the impact of the interaction between strategic aggressiveness and stock mispricing on the future development of capital market. In accordance with the above research ideas, this paper selects A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen (excluding science and innovation board companies) from 2006 to 2021 as research samples to empirically test the effect, mechanism, boundary conditions, and economic consequences of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing, and draws the following conclusions: First, strategic aggressiveness lead to more serious stock mispricing, and mainly manifested in overvaluation of stock prices. After conducting endogenous and robust tests using instrumental variable method, lagged independent variable method, Heckman two-stage method, and substitution variable method, the significant positive effect of strategic aggressiveness on stock mispricing remains valid. Secondly, empirical results based on the perspective of information asymmetry indicate that strategic aggressiveness significantly exacerbates information asymmetry between companies and external investors, leading to more serious stock mispricing. More specifically, it is found that strategic aggressiveness leads to more serious stock mispricing not only by intensifying earnings information asymmetry but also by intensifying forward-looking information asymmetry. The test results based on the perspective of operational uncertainty show that strategic aggressiveness increases the corporate's operational uncertainty, leading to stock mispricing. Thirdly, based on the test of policy environment differences, it is found that the influence of corporate strategic radicalism on stock mispricing is stronger under high economic policy uncertainty. Based on the difference of corporate governance environment, it is found that the influence of corporate strategic radicalism on stock mispricing is stronger in the corporates with high analyst and media attention, but weaker in the corporates with high non-punitive supervision intensity. Fourth, the economic outcome test shows that the interaction between strategic radicalism and stock mispricing will further aggravate the risk of excessive debt and stock price collapse in the future period, and affect the stability of the capital market. Overall, this paper enriches the research framework of strategic aggressiveness and stock mispricing, and to some extent provides inspiration for future related research. The conclusions of this paper are conducive to deepening the understanding of the relationship between strategic aggressiveness and stock mispricing among corporate stakeholders and capital market participants, and provide useful theoretical references for their future behavior decisions. ? ? ?? ?
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