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论文编号：	13645
作者编号：	2320190787
上传时间：	2022/12/5 14:58:08
中文题目：	A公司铁路专用线项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	The Research on Risk Management of Enterprise A-specific Railway-line Project
指导老师：	方磊
中文关键字：	铁路专用线；风险分析；解释结构模型法；层次分析法；风险事件应对
英文关键字：	enterprise-specific railway line; risk assessment; Interpretative Structural Modelling Method; Analytic Hierarchy Process; risk event response
中文摘要：	随着经济发展的持续增速，铁路道网建设正加速进行。在此进程中，全国铁路专用线建设规模增长显著，面对如此快速增长的专用线建设，传统针对国有铁路、地方政府投资铁路的定性风险因素评估管理方案已经无法满足投资方对项目管理的要求，同时仅着眼于筹备阶段、施工阶段风险的相对单调的风险评估管理方案也造成了项目建设与运营期的人为割裂，因此，铁路专用线工程项目需要应用可量化的、涵盖全部项目生命周期的风险管理。 本论文阐述铁路专用线行业发展趋势与专用线项目区别于国有铁路、地方铁路的建造、运营特征，提出了基于项目全实施阶段视角的铁路专用线项目可量化风险分析的研究方向，使用WBS-RBS矩阵法对铁路专用线项目全生命周期内各阶段风险事件与风险因素进行逐一识别，通过解释结构模型法（ISM）和层次分析法（AHP）等方法对各阶段各环节风险因素进行层次结构分析和风险权重量化分析。最后以黄骅港A公司铁路专用线项目为实际分析案例，应用上述方法与模型进行分析，确定该项目风险因素七大类共19项，划分深层风险因素3项，中层风险因素6项，表层风险因素10项，并对三层风险划分内各因素进行权重计算排序，对高权重风险因素导致的风险事件进行针对性对策研究，依据风险规避、转移、降低、接受四种处理策略提出47项A公司铁路专用线项目风险应对措施，并简要阐述项目风险监控工作构思。 通过本论文的研究，探索了铁路专用线项目全生命周期视角下的风险识别、风险评估、风险应对、风险监控等风险管理具体方法，通过ISM及AHP法将传统铁路建设领域定性风险分析转变为多层次可量化风险评价，对与此项目类似的其他铁路专用线项目风险管理工作具有参考意义。
英文摘要：	As the economic development speeds up, the construction of railway net has been promoted. In this process, the scale of enterprise-specific railway lines shows a significant growth. Facing this growing scale of enterprise-specific railway lines，the traditional qualitative risk assessment program suitable for national railways and local railways funded by the government is hard to satisfy the demand for project management from the investor．Meantime the fairly tedious risk assessment program that only focus on the preparatory stage and the construction stage will lead to the division of project construction phase and project operation phase which run by exactly one enterprise. So we need a measurable risk assessment program that focus on full life cycle in enterprise-specific railway-line projects. In this thesis a measurable risk assessment program suitable for full life cycle of enterprise-specific railway-line projects were fetched, by studying the trend of enterprise-specific railway line development and the comparison of the characteristic in construction and operation phase between enterprise-specific railway and national railway projects. Using the WBS-RBS matrix the risk factors in full life cycle of enterprise-specific railway-line projects were identified, the risk factors were stratified using ISM, and the weight of risk factors were calculated by using AHP. At the end of this thesis, A Project in Huanghua port area was studied as an example, a total of 19 items in seven categories of risk factors of the project were identified, 3 deep risk factors, 6 middle risk factors, and 10 surface risk factors were identified, and the weight calculation and ranking of each factor within the three-tier risk division was carried out, and the risk events caused by the high-weight risk factors were studied in a targeted manner, and 47 risk response measures for Company A's railway special line project were proposed according to the four treatment strategies of risk avoidance, transfer, mitigation and acceptance,and briefly expounds the project risk monitoring concept. Through the research of this thesis, the specific methods of risk identification, risk assessment, risk response and risk monitoring from the perspective of the whole life cycle of railway special line projects are explored, and the qualitative risk analysis in the traditional railway construction field is transformed into multi-level quantifiable risk evaluation through ISM and AHP methods, which is significantly referenced for the risk management work of other railway special line projects similar to this project.
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