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论文编号：	13387
作者编号：	2320180343
上传时间：	2022/6/14 9:49:52
中文题目：	A航空公司现金流管理优化
英文题目：	Cash Flow Management Optimization of A Airline
指导老师：	王永进教授
中文关键字：	航空公司；现金流管理；财务分析
英文关键字：	Airlines; financial analysis; cash flow management
中文摘要：	现金流是企业在经济活动过程中产生的现金流入、流出，反映了企业真实的资金流动情况。现金流管理是对资金的管理，在确保资金平衡的基础上，做好预警，进一步减少风险，提高资金使用效率，作为公司重要战略组成部分，对公司的平稳运营、扩张及未来发展至关重要。 民用航空旅客运输业是运输行业不可或缺的组成部分，在社会经济发展中有至关重要的推动作用。根据《2019 年民航行业发展统计公报》显示，中国民用航空公司收入利润率仅为5.1%，资产负债率高达70%，也就是说，民航业是重资产、高负债、高投入、低产出的产业。而航空公司往往拥有账龄短、收入规模大、资金流动性强等优势，基于此种优势，航空业本身的现金流管理并不如生产制造型企业一样被管理者重视。一般来说，航空公司管理者更加关注与风险直接相关的航空安全，安全是航空公司的生命线，一旦突破，航空公司将陷入万劫不复的境地。 中国民航相比世界民航的发展，有起步慢，增速快的特点，疫情前，中国民航旅客运输量占世界民航旅客运输量比例已达14.54%，中国民航业发展状况已达到世界领先水平。从增速来看，民航旅客运输量在2017年以前均保持高增长姿态。2018、2019年，受宏观经济环境及趋于饱和的中国民航机场时刻资源影响，旅客运输量及飞机数量增速明显放缓。 根据行业生命周期理论(Industry Life Cycle)，在2018年，中国民航业已开始步入成熟期，这一时期，市场及需求增长率相对稳定，行业竞争状况也更加激烈，疫情过后，如宏观经济环境未有明显好转，且匹配的民航发展政策未发生重大变化，而技术革新短时间内可能不会出现，中国民航业将长期处于成熟期，行业发展增速将进一步降低。 2020年至2021年，新冠肺炎疫情全球蔓延，全球民航业遭受史无前例的冲击，因停飞航班数量众多，收入锐减，现金流风险极高。一旦发生资金链断裂，公司将寸步难行，如何能活下去，成为当前航空公司最重要的目标，航空公司现金流管理能力是航空公司生存、发展的关键。疫情后，将有越来越多的航空公司将现金流管理放在首要位置。 A航空公司是我国支线航空商业模式的引领者和主要践行者，是我国目前唯一一家长期专注于支线航空运输的独立航空公司。受疫情影响，公司现金流问题逐步显现。在经营性现金流管理方面，A航空公司将主要精力用于资金流入、流出的监控，并根据实际资金状况，对每日的付款进行安排，疫情后，公司经营性收入将大幅下降。问题在于，A航空公司对经营性现金流流入缺少预测，对于应收款账期关注不够，同时对业务发生额合理性及付款缺少主动管理的行为，对客观环境及公司经营状况影响经营性现金流的分析不够，无法引导业务开展，同时，对于内外部环境变化（季节变化）而对经营性现金流产生的影响缺少预警。 从筹资性现金流管理来看，A航空公司为配合公司飞机、飞行员引进及日常经营业务，被动开展长短期融资，在管理上，通过台账管理、确保还本付息不受影响。问题在于，A航空公司对人民币汇率、贷款利率关注不够，同时，并未结合公司实际经营、资产负债结构来对筹资性现金流进行管理，对于内外部环境变化（如利率、汇率变化）而对筹资性现金流产生的影响缺少预警。 从投资性现金流管理方面，现金流管理被动跟随公司战略，问题在于，A航空公司未主动分析公司内部状况如飞机日利用率、机长飞机比等情况，对投资性现金流管理做出增加或减少的安排。 基于上述情况，本文以A航空公司为研究对象，首先就中国民航业已经步入成熟期的事实进行阐述；其次，简要说明了A航空公司所处的竞争环境，指出了A航空公司现金流管理存在滞后与被动的问题。结合公司财务状况及管理层需要，确定优化方向为“做好预警，引导业务开展”；随后，从财务报表出发，通过同行业间横向对比及历史数据纵向对比方式，分析A航空公司与现金流直接相关的特定财务指标情况，并根据指标反映的问题，分析产生的原因，并从业务端出发，确定影响现金流的预警指标因素为应收账款账龄、支线补贴政策、航油价格、季节变化、人民币汇率、贷款利率、资产负债率、利息保障倍数、偿债保障比率、流动比率、速动比率、净资产收益率、飞行员人机比、飞机日利用率，并建立了A航空公司现金流预警指标关注等级。 最后，基于现金流预警指标情况，对应收账款管理方式、补贴政策、航油、汇率、利率的变动分析给予建议，并对股权融资与债权融资的选择、负债期限结构的调整、飞机及飞行员的引进提出管理意见。 本文的核心思路为，基于宏观环境因素变化及A航空公司现金流管理情况，指出现金流管理中存在问题，并将后续优化方向确定为做好预警、深入业务、最终引导业务优化，可能会对其他航空企业现金流管理优化的方向和思路给予启发和参考。本文的实践价值主要体现在以下几个方面： 1. 根据行业及公司实际财务状况，并结合公司管理层实际需要，有针对性地实施现金流管理优化； 2. 现金流预警以财务报表为基础，通过行业及历史数据对比分析，找出异常指标，分析诱因，建立现金流预警指标关注等级； 3. 从业务端入手，对于现金流预警指标进行分析，并逐一提出了现金流管理优化工作建议。
英文摘要：	Cash flow refers to the cash inflow and outflow generated by an enterprise economic activity, and reflects the true capital flow of the enterprise. Cash flow management is the management of funds. The basic cash flow management is ensuring the balance of funds. The further way to do cash flow management is to make warnings，reduce risks, and improve the efficiency of capital use. As an important part of the company's strategy, cash flow management is essential to the company's stable operation, expansion and future development. Civil aviation passenger transportation is an indispensable part of the transportation industry which plays a vital role in promoting social and economic development. According to the statistical bulletin on the development of civil 2019, the profit margin of civil aviation of China is only 5.1% and the asset-liability ratio is as high as 70%. That is to say, the civil aviation industry is heavy assets, high debt, high input and low output. Usually, the corporations of civil aviation of China have the advantages of short account aging, large income scale, and strong capital liquidity. Based on these advantages, the cash flow management of the aviation industry is not as important as the management of manufacturing enterprises. Generally speaking, the managers always pay more attention to aviation safety, which is directly related to risks. Safety is the lifeline of the corporation. Once a breakthrough is made, the corporation will be in a state of doom. Compared with the development of world civil aviation, the civil aviation of China has the characteristics of slow start and fast growth. Before the epidemic, the chinese passengers traffic accounted for 14.54 % of the world's civil aviation passenger traffic, and the development of civil aviation industry of China has reached the world's leading level. From the perspective of growth rate, the passenger traffic volume of civil aviation maintained a high growth posture until 2017. In 2018 and 2019, affected by the macroeconomic environment and the increasingly saturated time slots resources of civil aviation airports of China, the growth rate of passenger traffic and the number of aircraft slowed down significantly. According to the industry life cycle theory, in 2018, the civil aviation industry of China has entered a mature stage. During this period, the growth rate of the market and demand is relatively stable, and the industry competition became more and more intense. If the environment has not improved significantly, and the matching civil aviation development policies have not undergone major changes, technological innovation may not occur in a short period of time, he civil aviation industry of China will be in a mature period for a long time. The growth rate of industry development will be further slowdown. 2020 to 2021, with the global spread of the COVID-19, the global civil aviation industry has suffered an unprecedented impact. Due to the large number of grounded flights which has even no route to fly, the revenue has dropped sharply, and the cash flow risk is extremely high. Once the capital chain breaks, the corporation will be unable to move a single step. How to survive through the epidemic has become the most important issue of the corporation. The cash flow management capability is the key to the survival and development of the corporation. Nowadays more and more corporation will give top priority to cash flow management. A Airline is the leader and main practitioner of the regional aviation business model in China. It is the only independent airline in China that has been focusing on regional aviation transportation for a long time. Affected by the epidemic, the cash flow issues of A Airline have gradually emerged. A Airline focused on monitoring the inflow and outflow of funds, and arrange daily payments according to the actual capital situation. Affected by the epidemic, the company's operating income drop significantly. The problem is that A Airline lacks forecasts on the inflow of operating cash flow and does not pay enough attention to the accounts receivable period, and lacks active management of the rationality of business occurrences and payments, which affects the objective environment and the company's operating conditions at the same time. The analysis of the flow is not enough to guide the business development. At the same time, there is a lack of pre-warning for the impact of internal and external environmental changes (seasonal changes) on the operating cash flow. From the perspective of financing cash flow management, A Airline passively conducts long-term and short-term financing in order to cooperate with the company's strategy of purchasing aircraft and pilots. A Airline uses ledger management to ensure that the payment of debts and interests is not affected. The problem is A Airline does not pay enough attention to the RMB exchange rate and loan interest rate and it does not manage the financing cash flow in combination with the corporation's actual operation and asset-liability structure. There is a lack of pre-warning of the impact of funding cash flows. From the perspective of investment cash flow management, cash flow management passively follows the company's strategy. The problem is A Airline has not actively analyzed the company's internal conditions such as daily aircraft utilization, captain-to-aircraft ratio, etc., for increasing or decreasing the investment cash flow. Based on the above situation, this paper takes A Airline as the research object. Firstly, the paper reviews the fact that China's civil aviation industry has entered a mature stage. Secondly, the paper briefly explains the competitive environment of A Airline, and points out the lack point of cash flow management of A Airline which is lag and passivity. Combined with the company's financial status and manager demands, the optimization is determined as "pre-warning and guiding business development". Then, starting from the financial statements, through horizontal comparison between the same industry and vertical comparison of historical data, the paper analyze A Airline and the specific financial indicators that are directly related to cash flow. Based on the abnormal indicators reflected by the comparison, the paper analyze the causes, and determine the pre-warning indicator factors that affect cash flow which is accounts receivable aging, branch line subsidy policy, jet fuel price, seasonal changes, RMB exchange rate, loan interest rate, asset-liability ratio, interest coverage ratio, debt service coverage ratio, current ratio, quick ratio, return on equity, pilot-to-machine ratio, aircraft daily utilization rate. The paper established an A Airline cash flow pre-warning indicators concern level. Finally, based on the cash flow pre-warning indicators, the paper gives suggestions on the management of accounts receivable, subsidy policies, aviation fuel, exchange rates, and changes in interest rates. The core idea of this paper is to point out the existing problems in cash flow management based on the changing environment and the lack point in cash flow management of A Airline and determines the direction of optimization as pre-warning and ultimately guides business optimization. The paper may affect ideas of cash flow management optimization of aviation enterprises and provide inspiration and reference. The practical value of this paper is mainly reflected in the following aspects: 1.Cash flow management should be implemented in accordance with the development of the industry and the company, and based on the needs of the manage tier. 2.Cash flow pre-warning based on financial statements. Through the industry data and historical data comparative analysis, the article finds out abnormal indicators, analyze incentives, establish a cash flow warning indicator system. 3.Starting from the business, cash flow warning indicators are analyzed, and cash flow management optimization suggestions put forward one by one.
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