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论文编号：	13366
作者编号：	2120202930
上传时间：	2022/6/13 12:36:15
中文题目：	AR评级公司城投行业评级方法优化
英文题目：	Research on City Investment Industry Rating Method Optimization of AR Credit Rating Company
指导老师：	张晓农
中文关键字：	评级机构；信用评级；城投行业；模糊层次分析评价法
英文关键字：	Rating Company；Credit Rating；City Investment Platforms；Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process
中文摘要：	伴随着我国分税制的改革、地区经济发展及城市建设的需要，各地方政府纷纷通过成立城投平台，发行债券来进行融资，截至2020年底全国共有近2800家城投平台，累计发行债券近19万亿。但随着城投债券规模不断扩大，信用评级问题愈发突显，风险预警能力差、评级偏高且区分度差被市场普遍诟病，也导致投资者对信用评级行业的公信力产生质疑。因此，评级机构亟需加强城投行业的信用风险评估研究，提高评级的有效性。 本文研究对象AR评级公司，2018年获批进入信用评级行业，目前城投行业评级是其主要业务类型。本文在查阅和梳理国内外信用评级文献及相关理论的基础上，结合城投行业信用风险特点，采用对比分析、文献研究等方法，对AR公司在城投行业的信用评级方法进行系统研究。针对AR评级体系中表现的初步评级指标有效性不足、调整因素挖掘不到位、评价要素赋重不合理及评级流程不规范等问题，依照定量与定性分析相结合的原则，本文重新构造区域经济环境、经营实力、财务实力及调整因素四大维度三级的核心评价指标，并运用模糊层次分析法赋予指标权重。随后，使用模糊综合分析法对信用风险因素进行评价确定城投主体的初始信用级别，再考虑调整因素后，确定主体最终信用级别，由此构造出一套更加有效合理、实务操作可行，易于理解的城投行业评级体系。 最后本文通过ABC城投作为应用案例进行验证，结果表明优化后的评级方法能够改善原AR评级模型结果，使其更符合实际情况和市场预期，证明优化后的AR评级体系有效性得到提高。
英文摘要：	With the reform of tax distribution system, regional economic development and city construction in China, local governments have established city investment platforms and issued bonds to finance. By the end of 2020, local governments set up almost 2,800 city investment enterprises and issued nearly 19 trillion yuan of bonds in China. Whereas, as the scale of government investment and financing platform bonds continues to expand, credit rating problems become increasingly prominent. Poor risk warning ability, high rating and poor differentiation are widely criticized by the market, which also leads to doubts on the credibility of the credit rating industry. Therefore, rating agencies urgently need to strengthen the city investment industry credit risk assessment research, improve the effectiveness of rating. AR Rating Company, the research object of this paper, was approved to enter the credit rating industry in 2018. At present, city investment business is its main business type. Basing on consulting and classificating at home and abroad credit rating literature and related theories, combining with the credit risk characteristics of city investment industry, this paper combines comparative analysis with literature research and other methods to systematically study the credit rating methods of AR Rating Company in city investment industry. There are four problems in AR rating system. Firstly , preliminary rating index for AR performance rating system effectiveness is insufficient. Secondly, mining does not reach the designated position adjustment factors. Thirdly,the evaluation elements assigned. Becoming a more effective and reasonable city investment credit rating system, this paper uses the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to give the indicators weight .Then, the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method is used to comprehensively evaluate the results to determine the evaluation process of the initial credit level of the city investment body in the paper . And the final credit level of the body is determined after considering the adjustment factors. Finally, this paper uses ABC city investment company as an application case for verification. The results show that the optimized rating method can improve the situation that the rating results in the original AR rating model are higher than the industry average. The rating results are more consistent with the actual situation and market expectations, proving that the effectiveness of the optimized AR rating system has been improved.
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