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论文编号：	13178
作者编号：	1120160805
上传时间：	2022/6/7 10:25:24
中文题目：	企业参与“一带一路”倡议、盈余管理与政策支持
英文题目：	Enterprises'''' Participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, Earnings Management and Policy Support
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	“一带一路”倡议；股票市场反应；盈余管理；信贷融资；政府补助
英文关键字：	Belt and Road Initiative; Stock Market Reaction; Earnings Management; Credit Financing; Government Subsidies
中文摘要：	党的十九大报告指出，中国经济已经从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段。在经济新常态背景下，“一带一路”倡议的提出旨在提升资源配置效率、促进区域间经济要素有序自由流动以及跨境市场的不断融合，从而推动中国产业优化升级，实现国民经济高质量发展。当前，已有关于“一带一路”倡议对宏观经济影响的研究较为丰富，但围绕“一带一路”倡议对微观企业影响的研究尚且不足。基于此，本文以“一带一路”倡议的实施为准自然实验背景，研究了企业参与“一带一路”倡议进行跨境投资的动机及影响因素，并从投资者对参与企业的市场反应、参与企业的盈余管理行为、参与企业获取的信贷优势和政府补助资金支持四个不同视角深入考察“一带一路”倡议对微观企业的影响。具体地，企业参与“一带一路”倡议的动机与影响因素是什么？股票市场投资者对企业的“一带一路”投资会做出怎样的反应？在面临多重压力的情况下，参与倡议的企业是否会采取盈余管理这一机会主义行为以满足不同利益相关者的需求？企业通过参与“一带一路”倡议是否能获得更多的信贷支持和政府补助？盈余管理会对参与倡议企业的债务融资成本和政府补助的获取产生何种影响？迄今为止，上述问题尚未引起广大学者的充分关注。本文以2009-2019年中国A股上市公司为研究样本，聚焦于主动在“一带一路”国家进行投资的参与企业，试图对上述问题进行深入系统地研究。 本文共分为八章。第一章为绪论，依次阐述了本文的研究背景、研究动机、研究问题、研究意义、研究思路、研究内容、研究框架、研究方法与技术路线，并由此引出本文可能存在的创新之处。第二章为文献综述，主要从宏观经济政策与微观企业行为、“一带一路”倡议的微观经济后果两方面对已有文献进行系统性总结和评述，以此引出本文的研究动机。第三章，企业参与“一带一路”倡议的动机与影响因素。首先，对企业参与“一带一路”倡议进行收益-风险分析，并对企业参与“一带一路”倡议的影响机制进行理论分析；其次，构建了企业参与“一带一路”倡议的影响因素模型，并从政治动机、市场寻求动机、企业风险承担、公司治理、海外投资经验和公司特征等视角对企业参与“一带一路”倡议的动机与影响因素进行实证检验与分析。第四章，企业参与“一带一路”倡议与股票市场反应。首先，对企业参与“一带一路”投资后所引发的股票市场反应进行理论分析，并提出研究假设；其次，构建实证模型对研究假设实证检验与分析，并进一步检验和分析了企业参与“一带一路”倡议所引发的股票市场反应在不同产权性质、是否属于重点支持产业和注册地是否位于重点省份的企业中是否存在差异。第五章，企业参与“一带一路”倡议与盈余管理。首先，围绕参与“一带一路”倡议对企业盈余管理行为的影响进行理论分析，并提出研究假设；其次，构建实证模型对研究假设进行实证检验与结果分析；再次，从市场反应、分析师跟踪和融资约束角度检验了参与“一带一路”倡议对企业盈余管理行为影响的调节机制；最后，进一步从东道国制度风险和经济风险、是否属于重点产业角度进行了异质性检验。第六章，企业参与“一带一路”倡议与信贷融资。首先，围绕“一带一路”倡议对企业信贷融资可能产生的影响展开理论分析，并提出研究假设；其次，通过构建实证模型对研究假设进行实证检验与结果分析；再次，检验了参与倡议对企业信贷融资影响的中间机制；接着，检验了盈余管理对参与倡议企业债务融资成本的影响，并探讨了东道国风险、企业产权性质、是否属于重点支持产业和注册地是否位于重点省份对参与倡议企业信贷资源获取的影响。此外，还进一步检验了企业参与“一带一路”倡议对贷款成本、贷款可获得性、贷款期限和贷款条件等其他信贷决策内容的影响。第七章，企业参与“一带一路”倡议与政府补助。首先，对企业参与“一带一路”倡议可能影响其所获得的政府补助进行理论分析，并提出研究假设；其次，通过构建实证模型对研究假设进行实证检验与分析；再次，检验了盈余管理对参与倡议企业政府补助获取的影响；最后，进一步检验分析了企业产权性质、是否属于重点支持产业和注册地是否位于重点省份对参与倡议企业政府补助获取的影响。第八章，对本文的研究结论进行总结提炼，在此基础上为上市公司、政府部门、金融机构和投资者提出了相应的政策建议，指出本文的局限性和未来研究方向。 通过理论分析和实证检验，本文主要得到以下结论： 一是，动机方面，本文发现企业参与“一带一路”倡议具有明显的“政治动机”，具体表现为国有企业和属于倡议重点支持战略性产业内的企业更倾向于响应“一带一路”倡议；而所属行业垄断程度较高或在国内成长性不佳的企业有强烈的“市场寻求动机”，更倾向于参与“一带一路”投资；特别地，企业整体的风险承担水平越高、管理者能力越强、第一大股东持股比例越高、具有“一带一路”国家相关的投资经验的企业更愿意参与“一带一路”倡议。 二是，市场反应方面，本文发现相比投资其他非“一带一路”国家，投资“一带一路”国家的企业会获得更加正向的股票市场反应，表现为投资当月的累计超额回报率更高，这一结论经稳健性检验和内生性问题解决后，依旧保持不变。进一步地，本文发现由非国有企业、重点支持产业的企业以及注册地位于重点省份的企业参与的“一带一路”投资会引发更加积极的股票市场反应。股票市场投资者的正向市场反应意味着对参与企业跨境投资的未来预期收益更高，也诠释了“一带一路”倡议在资本市场中具有积极的政策信号。 三是，盈余管理方面，本文发现相比未参与“一带一路”倡议的企业，参与“一带一路”倡议的企业盈余管理水平更高，这一结论在进行稳健性检验和解决内生性问题后，依然成立。在调节机制检验中发现，投资者的市场反应起到了负向调节作用，即投资者的反应越差企业管理层为了证明其投资决策的正确性进而扭转投资者负面预期而越有可能进行盈余管理；市场中分析师的监督会抑制企业盈余管理；而融资约束更高的企业为了获取更多的资金支持进行向上盈余管理的动机更强；之后将东道国的制度风险和经济风险纳入研究框架，发现企业的盈余管理水平与东道国的制度风险、经济风险显著正相关；最后，发现当企业属于重点产业，尤其是新兴优势产业时其盈余管理更明显。 四是，信贷融资方面，本文发现相比未参与“一带一路”倡议的企业，参与“一带一路”倡议的企业会获得更多的信贷资源支持。具体地，参与“一带一路”倡议的企业能够获得更多的银行贷款、享受更低的贷款成本、获得银行贷款的机会更多、享受贷款的期限更长。机制分析表明，提高企业获取资源的能力、改善企业财务业绩和降低企业信息不对称是“一带一路”倡议对参与企业信贷融资影响的重要机制。在调节机制检验中发现，盈余管理水平越高越有助于降低参与倡议企业的债务融资成本；之后，将东道国制度风险和经济风险纳入研究框架，发现参与倡议企业的信贷融资规模与东道国制度风险、经济风险显著负相关；且非国有企业、重点支持产业的企业以及注册地位于重点省份的企业参与“一带一路”倡议后会获得更多的信贷资源。从而揭示了信贷市场资金配置规律，打开了“一带一路”倡议影响银行信贷决策的“黑箱”。 五是，政府补助方面，本文发现相比未参与“一带一路”倡议的企业，参与“一带一路”倡议的企业会获得更多的政府补助，对于非国有企业、重点支持产业的企业以及注册地位于非重点省份的企业尤为如此。特别地，参与倡议企业的盈余管理水平越高，其获取政府补助的规模越大。从而揭示了“一带一路”倡议背景下政府资源的配置规律。 综上，本文对参与“一带一路”倡议对企业盈余管理行为的影响进行了着重研究，一是发现参与“一带一路”倡议会提升企业的盈余管理水平，从而为企业的盈余管理行为找到一个新的影响因素；二是发现企业通过盈余管理向上调节利润，从而为了降低融资成本并获取更多的政策支持，背后反映了企业的机会主义动机。全文围绕参与“一带一路”倡议对我国企业会带来哪些影响进行了深入分析，研究结论对推动“一带一路”高质量建设，促进我国企业产业结构优化升级和中国经济高质量发展具有重要的理论和现实意义，同时为政府部门、企业、金融机构和投资者的决策制定提供了一定的参考。
英文摘要：	According to the report of the 19th CPC National Congress, China's economy has shifted from high-speed growth to the stage of high-quality development. In the context of the new normal of China's economy, the Belt and Road Initiative aims to improve the efficiency of resource allocation, promote orderly and free flow of regional economic factors and markets integration, to optimize and upgrade industries and achieve high-quality of the nation’s economy development. There has been abundant research on the macroeconomic effects of the Belt and Road Initiative, but there is still insufficient research on the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on micro enterprises. Then, taking the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative as quasi-natural experiment context, this dissertation studies the motivation and influencing factors of corporates' Cross-border investment with their participation of the Belt and Road Initiative, and examines the policy effects of the Belt and Road Initiative from the perspectives of investors, enterprises, creditors, and governments. Specifically, what are the motivations and influencing factors of the corporates' participation in the Belt and Road Initiative? How will the stock market react to companies' Belt and Road related investments? Under multiple pressures, whether the company's managers will meet the needs of multiple stakeholders through earnings management? Whether enterprises can get more credit support and government subsidies through participating in the Belt and Road Initiative? How will earnings management affect the participating corporates' debt financing costs and its access to government subsidies? Up to now, the above problems have not attracted full attention of scholars. This paper takes China A-share listed companies from 2009 to 2019 as samples to conduct deep and systematic research on the above issues. This dissertation is divided into eight chapters. Chapter one is the introduction, which describes the research background, research motivation, research questions, research significance, research ideas, research content, research framework, research methods and technical route of this paper in turn and leads to the possible contributions. The second chapter is a literature review, which systematically summarizes and reviews the existing literature from the perspectives of macroeconomic policies, micro-corporate behavior, and the micro-economic consequences of the belt and Road Initiative, thus leading to the research motivation of this dissertation. Chapter three, the decision-making motivation and influencing factors of corporates' participation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Firstly, benefit-risk analysis of corporates' participating the Belt and Road Initiative is conducted, and the influence mechanism of corporates' participating in the Belt and Road Initiative is theoretically analyzed. Secondly, the dissertation builds a model of influencing factors of corporates' participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, and empirically tests and analyzes the decision-making motivations and influencing factors from the perspectives of political motivation, market motivation, enterprise risk taking, corporate governance, overseas investment experience and corporate characteristics. Chapter four, the corporate's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and its stock market reaction. Firstly, the stock market reaction caused by corporates' participation in the Belt and Road related investment is theoretically analyzed, then the research hypothesis is proposed. Secondly, an empirical model is constructed to empirically test and analyze the research hypothesis and further test and analyze whether the stock market reaction to corporate's participation in the belt and Road Initiative is different among corporates' different property rights, whether they belong to key industries and whether their registration is in key provinces. Chapter five, the Belt and Road Initiative and the participating corporate's earnings management. Firstly, analysis the impact of participating in the Belt and Road Initiative on corporate's earnings management, and research hypotheses are proposed. Secondly, an empirical model is constructed to test the hypotheses, then analyze the results. Thirdly, from the perspectives of market reaction, analyst attention and financing constraints, this paper examines the moderating mechanism of the corporate's participating in the Belt and Road Initiative on earnings. Finally, heterogeneity is further tested from the perspectives of institutional risk and economic risk, and whether the host country belongs to key industries. Chapter six, the corporate's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative and credit financing. Firstly, theoretical analysis is carried out on the possible impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on corporate's credit financing, then research hypotheses are proposed. Secondly, empirical test and result analysis are carried out by constructing empirical model. Thirdly, the dissertation examines the intermediate mechanism of the impact of participating in the Belt and Road initiative on corporate credit financing. Then, the dissertation examines the impact of earnings management on the corporate's debt financing cost, and discusses the impact of host country risk, the nature of corporate's property rights, whether its belonging to supporting industry and whether its registration is in key provinces influence the access to its credit resources. In addition, it further examines the impact of corporate's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative on other aspects of credit decisions, such as loan cost, loan availability, loan term and terms. Chapter seven, corporate's participation in the belt and Road Initiative and government subsidies. Firstly, the dissertation makes a theoretical analysis on how corporate's participation in the belt and Road Initiative may affect their government subsidies, then puts forward research hypotheses. Secondly, empirically test and analyze the research hypothesis by constructing an empirical model. Thirdly, the dissertation examines the impact of the participating corporate's earnings management on government subsidies. Finally, the dissertation further examines and analyzes the influence of the property right nature of enterprises, belonging to key supported industries and whether their registration is in key provinces on the corporate's access to government subsidies. Chapter eight summarizes the research conclusions of the dissertation, and puts forward corresponding policy suggestions for listed companies, government departments, financial institutions, and investors, then point out the limitations of this paper and future research direction. Through theoretical analysis and empirical test, this dissertation mainly draws the following conclusions: Firstly, in terms of the motivation, this dissertation finds that the corporate's participation in the Belt and Road Initiative has obvious "political motivation", that is, the state-owned and strategic industries corporates that the initiative focuses on supporting are more inclined to respond to the Belt and Road Initiative. However, the corporate with high degree of industry monopoly or low growth in China have strong "market seeking motivation" and are more inclined to implement the Belt and Road related investment. Especially, corporate with higher overall risk bearing level, stronger management ability, higher stakeholder shareholding, and investment experience in Belt and Road countries are more willing to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. Secondly, in terms of the market reaction, this dissertation finds that compared with other Non-Belt and Road countries, enterprises investing in the Belt and Road countries will get more positive stock market reaction, characterized by higher cumulative excess return on investment month, after robustness test and endogenous problem solving, this conclusion remains. Furthermore, grouping regression is used to find that the participation of non-state-owned corporate, corporate in key supporting industries and registered in key provinces in the Belt and Road investment will trigger more positive stock market reaction. The positive market reaction in the stock market means that they have a better expectation of the future value of participating corporate, which also interprets the positive policy signals sent by the Belt and Road Initiative in the capital market. Thirdly, in terms of the earnings management, this dissertation finds that compared with the corporate's not participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, the participating corporate's earnings management level is higher. This conclusion is still valid after the robustness test and the solution of endogenous problems. In the regulatory mechanism test, it is found that the market reaction of investors has a negative moderating effect, that is, the worse the reaction, the more earnings management, to prove the correctness of their investment decisions. Analysts' attention in the market will inhibit earnings management, corporate with higher financing constraints have stronger motivation to manage earnings to obtain more financial support. Then the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country are brought into the research framework, and it is found that the level of earnings management is significantly positively correlated with the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country. Finally, it is found that earnings management is more obvious when corporate belongs to key industries, especially emerging industries. Fourth, in terms of credit financing, this paper finds that enterprises participating in the Belt and Road initiative will receive more credit resources than those not participating in the Belt and Road initiative. Specifically, enterprises participating in the "the Belt and Road" initiative can obtain more bank loans, enjoy lower loan costs, have more opportunities to obtain bank loans and enjoy longer loan terms. In the test of adjustment mechanism, it is found that the higher the level of earnings management is, the more helpful it is to reduce the debt financing cost of participating enterprises; After that, the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country are brought into the research framework. It is found that the credit financing scale of the participating enterprises is significantly negatively correlated with the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country; Moreover, non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises in key supporting industries and enterprises registered in key provinces will obtain more credit resources after participating in the Belt and Road initiative. Thus, the law of capital allocation in the credit market has been revealed, and the "black box" of the "the Belt and Road" initiative affecting bank credit decisions has been opened. Fourthly, in terms of the credit financing, this dissertation finds that compared with the corporate that does not participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, participate corporate will gain more credit support resources. Specifically, enterprises participating in the Belt and Road initiative can obtain more bank loans, enjoy lower loan costs, have more opportunities to obtain bank loans and enjoy longer loan terms. Mechanism analysis shows that improving the ability of enterprises to obtain resources, improving their financial performance and reducing enterprise information asymmetry are important mechanisms for the impact of the Belt and Road initiative on enterprise credit financing. In the regulatory mechanism test, it is found that the higher the level of earnings management is, the more helpful it is to reduce the debt financing cost of participating enterprises; After that, the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country are brought into the research framework. It is found that the credit financing scale of the participating enterprises is significantly negatively correlated with the institutional risk and economic risk of the host country; Moreover, non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises in key supporting industries and enterprises registered in key provinces will obtain more credit resources after participating in the Belt and Road initiative. Thus, the law of capital allocation in the credit market has been revealed, and the "black box" of the "the Belt and Road" initiative affecting bank credit decisions has been opened. Fifthly, in terms of the government subsidies, this dissertation finds that compared with enterprises not participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, corporate participating in the Belt and Road Initiative will receive more government subsidies, especially for non-state-owned enterprises, enterprises in key supporting industries and enterprises registered in non-key provinces. In particular, the higher the level of earnings management, the larger the scale of government subsidies. Thus, it reveals the allocation law of government resources under the background of the Belt and Road initiative. To sum up, this dissertation focuses on the impact of participating in the Belt and Road initiative on earnings management behavior of enterprises. First, we find that participating in the Belt and Road initiative will improve the level of earnings management of enterprises, which find a new influencing factor for earnings management behavior of enterprises. Second, we find that enterprises use earnings management to adjust profits upward to obtain more policy support, which reflects the opportunistic motives of enterprises. The full text of the Belt and Road initiative to participate in China's enterprises will bring what micro specific impact on the in-depth analysis. The conclusion of this dissertation has important theoretical and practical significance for promoting the high-quality development of the Belt and Road, promoting the optimization, and upgrading of Chinese corporate and the high-quality development of Chinese economy. Meanwhile, it provides certain reference for the decision-making of government departments, corporates, financial institutions, and investors.
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