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论文编号：	13136
作者编号：	2120202840
上传时间：	2022/6/6 20:56:56
中文题目：	公司内部治理对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响
英文题目：	Research on Influence of Corporate Internal Governance on Analyst Earnings Forecast Accuracy
指导老师：	牛芳
中文关键字：	公司内部治理；战略差异度；证券分析师；盈余预测
英文关键字：	Corporate Internal Governance; Deviant Strategy; Security Analyst; Earnings Forecast
中文摘要：	截止到2021年底，在我国投资者的总人数为1.97亿人，同比增加了10.67%。仅2020年投资者总人数就增加了1802.25万人，与2019年的环比增加的投资者人数相比，2020全年度比2019年环比多增加了36%。尽管投资者数量猛增，但学者们普遍认为我国仍未达到强式有效市场，信息不对称、委托代理问题等现象以及由此带来的问题普遍存在。因此，证券分析师作为企业和市场的中间力量发挥好其作用就显得尤为重要了。证券分析师通过专业的盈余预测可以帮助投资者进行决策，也可以作为重要的外部治理力量来监督公司的信息披露和盈余管理等情况，还可以及时地传递市场和上市公司的信号，减缓信息的不对称。 本文从分析师预测的对象——上市公司的情况出发，通过研究公司内部治理对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响，来进一步探索分析师盈余预测的影响因素这一“黑箱”，并探究可能的影响路径。本文选取2015-2019年中国A股上市公司的数据作为研究样本，根据中介效应三步法，并通过描述性统计分析、相关性分析、回归分析等实证研究分析方法分析了公司内部治理、战略差异度、分析师盈余预测准确度之间的关系。进一步，本文做了稳定性检验，以证明战略差异度在其中的中介效应的结论的稳定性。 本文得出了以下结论：①若上市公司的企业内部治理水平越高，则分析师关于盈余预测的相关准确度越高。②在上市公司的公司内部治理对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响中，战略差异度可起到部分中介作用。最后，本文提出了一些针对提高对公司战略关注度、提高分析师盈余预测准确度及改善投资者投资的建议，以进一步提高证券市场的效率。
英文摘要：	The total number of investors in China reached 197 million by the end of 2021, which showed a year-on-year increase of 10.67%. Only the growth number of new investors in 2020 have reached 18.0225 million, which increased 36% compared with the total growth number of new investors in 2019. However, the amount of investors increase rapidly,scholars generally held the opinion that China has not yet realized a strong efficient market, in which we can see the common phenomenon of information asymmetry and the problems caused by it. Therefore, it’s particularly important for securities analysts as an intermediary force between the market and enterprises to play a positive role. Through professional earnings forecasts, the securities analysts are able to help investors make decisions, and the company's information disclosure and other situations can be supervised by using it as an important external governance force. What's more, the signals from the market and listed companies can be transmitted in a timely manner, so that it would mitigate the information asymmetry. In this thesis, by researching the influence of corporate internal governance on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy, the "black box" of the influencing factors of analyst earnings forecast is further explored, and the possible impact paths are explored. The data of China's A-share Listed Companies from 2015 to 2019 is taken as the research sample, the relationship of the company's internal governance, deviant strategy and the analyst earnings forecast accuracy is analyzed according to the three-step mediation effect, and through descriptive statistical analysis, statistical, regressio-n and correlation analysis and other empirical research and analysis methods. For further，this research tests the stability to prove the conclusion of the mediation effect of strategic difference. This research starts with the listed companies that analysts focus on listed company. To sum up, the conclusions as follow: (1) The analyst earnings forecast accuracy will be higher if the internal governance of listed companies is higher. ②The deviant strategy can play a partial mediation role in the influence of the internal corporate governance of listed companies on the analyst earnings forecast accuracy. Finally, there are some perfect opinions of the governance structure of listed companies, the improvement of analyst earnings forecast accuracy and the enhancement of investors' investment, so that the efficiency of the securities market environment can be further improved.
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