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论文编号：	13098
作者编号：	2120202880
上传时间：	2022/6/6 16:46:25
中文题目：	基于文本分析的分析师预测准确性研究
英文题目：	Research on the Accuracy of Analyst Forecast Based on Textual Analysis
指导老师：	牛芳
中文关键字：	文本分析；分析师；预测准确性；乐观偏好
英文关键字：	textual analysis; analyst; forecast accuracy; optimism bias
中文摘要：	证券分析师是重要的市场参与者，其分析决策行为的作用与有效性也一直是学者们所重点关注的内容。分析师作为专业的金融信息中介，能够有效降低投资者和上市公司之间的信息不对称，会计师也会利用分析师的盈利预测作为资本市场盈利预期的替代值，因此了解预测准确性的影响因素对研究报告使用者十分重要。国内现有研究大部分是根据分析师的跟踪数量或分析师报告中给出的定量指标来考察分析师的作用，但分析师报告的主体应该是文本信息，目前这方面的相关研究相对有限，所以本文利用文本分析的方法来探索分析师报告所包含内容和信息对预测准确度的影响。本文选取Wind数据库研究报告平台上2017年至2018 年年报公布日之后生物医药行业上市公司的深度研究报告，通过人工判定识别研究报告摘要中的文本，将其分成政策、行业现状、公司战略、市场地位、产品、技术、销售、项目投资、融资策略、会计业绩、高管团队、内部经营与管理、公司治理、供应商、经销商、公司风险、品牌等17个维度，以此考察证券分析师研究报告中研究总量、关注行业比例、关注风险比例对分析师盈余预测乐观程度以及准确度的影响。本文研究发现，这些信息不能有效的解释分析师预测准确度。研究发现在一定程度上说明，证券分析师发布的报告中所呈现的信息和分析师具体利用的信息可能存在差异，报告文本对分析师的盈余预测准确性解释力不足；如何加工信息是影响证券分析师盈余预测准确性的重要因素，分析师的预测准确度更多的依赖分析师的经验判断。本文丰富了分析师研究报告文本分析、信息含量及其效果的研究，对证券分析师盈余预测准确性的影响因素研究增加新的实证检验证据，对分析师研究框架具有一定的参考意义；本研究对投资者科学地看待和关注研究报告信息有所帮助，能够鼓励上市公司披露相关文本信息，提高资本市场配置效率。
英文摘要：	Securities analysts are important market participants,and the role and effectiveness of their analysis and decision-making behavior have been the focus of scholars. As a professional financial information intermediary, analysts can effectively reduce the information asymmetry between investors and public corporates, and accountants can also use analysts’ earnings forecasts as a substitute value for capital market earnings expectations. Therefore, it is important for the users of the research report to understand the factors influencing the accuracy of the prediction. Most of the existing research in China examined the role of analysts according to the number of analysts tracked or the quantitative indicators given in the analysts’ reports, but the main body of the analysts’ reports should be text information. At present, the related research is relatively limited, so this paper uses textual analysis method to explore the impact of the content and information contained in the analysts’ reports on forecasting accuracy. This paper selected in-depth research reports of public companies in biopharmaceutical industry after the publication date of 2017 and 2018 annual report from the Wind database, and then identified the texts in the research report summary by manual judgment. These texts were divided into 17 dimensions： policy, industry status, corporate strategy, market position, product, innovation and R&D, marketing strategy, investment, financing strategy, accounting performance, executive team, internal operation, corporate governance, supply chain, agency, risk, brand, etc.. to examine the effects of the quantity, the percentage of industry and the percentage of risk on the optimism and accuracy of analysts earnings forecast. It was found that these information can not effectively explain the forecast accuracy. There may be differences between the information presented in the reports issued by the securities analysts and that used by the analysts, so the text of the reports did not explain the forecast accuracy. How to process information is an essential factor that affects the forecast accuracy of earnings of securities analysts, and the accuracy depends more on analysts’ experience. This paper enriched the research on the textual analysis, the information content as well as the effect of research reports, and added to new empirical evidence to the research on the factors influencing the accuracy of analysts forecast. It is helpful for investors to view and pay attention to the information in research report scientifically. It can also encourage public companies to disclose relevant information and improve the efficiency of capital market allocation.
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