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论文编号：	13027
作者编号：	2320190693
上传时间：	2022/3/7 13:10:48
中文题目：	实物期权估值模型在商业地产项目投资决策中的应用——以T项目为例
英文题目：	Application of Real Option Valuation Model in Investment Decision of Commercial Real Estate Project- T Project as An Example
指导老师：	刘志远、高玉章
中文关键字：	投资决策；房地产；实物期权；商业地产
英文关键字：	Investment Decision；Real Estate；Real Option；Commercial Real Estate
中文摘要：	进入2021年，随着国内经济迅速地发展，商业地产已经成为经济腾飞不可或缺的产物，在经济发展中承担着重要任务。商业地产拥有极为复杂的商业模式，包含商业、地产、投资三重属性。这也意味着在涉及商业地产的决策，如投资过程中，决策者需要考虑的问题不单纯是回报率高低，还应兼顾多个维度去做出决策，一个成功的商业地产投资决策所带来的丰厚回报，不仅仅是以单一维度如利润表现为基础。由商业地产独特的商业模式属性带来的其自身的投资特点：规模大、周期长、不可逆等方面，使得其在项目投资阶段充满了不确定性。在这样的前提下，传统的投资决策理论已经不能够满足实际需要，不能完全表现出商业地产的独特价值，也就是商业地产所拥有的不确定性，所带来的项目的潜在价值。以实物期权为基础的估值方法，较传统方法而言，可以考虑到项目的不确定性，从而可以将项目的潜在价值包含进来。 J房地产开发公司从战略角度考虑，即将涉足商业地产业务，投资位于天津市河西区的T商业地产项目，针对该项目的投资决策进行研究后，发现其用传统估值方法并不能展现 T 项目带来的潜在价值，由于从战略角度考虑，该公司应尽快投资T项目。为解决J房地产公司面临的投资决策问题，首先回顾期权、实物期权等理论的研究发展过程，其次将J房地产公司的背景以及 T 商业地产项目进行了介绍，根据 J 房地产公司实际情况,以及T项目的开发流程，以传统方法如净现值（NPV）法对进行估值，结合估值结果以及T商业地产项目的特点，重点识别传统方法如净现值（NPV）法的局限性。随后对T商业地产项目的不确定性进行说明，识别出该项目的期权特性，并对该项目蕴含的实物期权类型进行发掘。以项目蕴含的开发阶段的延迟期权为例，灵活运用 B-S 模型，对该期权价值进行计算。最后，将传统方法和实物期权法对项目的应用结果进行对比，并且结合定性分析的方法，将项目的延迟期权价值进行说明，进而得出实物期权更能全面考虑T商业地产项目的价值。
英文摘要：	Commercial real estate has developed rapidly in China in recent years, and as a development project with high investment and high risk, the correctness of investment decisions has become the basis for the success of the project.Because commercial real estate projects have long investment cycle, large investment scale and irreversible investment, the investment process is full of uncertainty.Facing the investment environment full of many uncertainties, the traditional investment decision-making theory exposes its theoretical defects in its practical application, and can not reflect the potential value of the project, so it cannot accurately evaluate the project.Based on the relevant theory of physical options, the commercial real estate project delayed option model to study the investment decision of the project.The main work of the paper is reflected in the following aspects: Relevant theory of commercial real estate investment decision is elaborated systematically.Through the comparative study of commercial real estate investment theory, the limitations and deficiencies of traditional investment decision methods and the advantages of real option methods in investment decision are indicated.The T project is based on the analysis of the uncertainty factors of the project,the environmental uncertainty and the flexibility of the factors affecting the investment decision of the commercial real estate project.This paper analyzes the characteristics of the commercial real estate project, and then constructs the development process of the T commercial real estate project.A delayed option model for T commercial real estate projects was constructed and applied.By revising the model, the delay option model of the project is determined, and through the practical application of the T commercial real estate projects, the project value including the delay options is far greater than that calculated by the traditional investment evaluation methods.
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