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论文编号：	12976
作者编号：	2320190638
上传时间：	2021/12/16 11:38:01
中文题目：	CN集团并购UK公司的市场预测偏差及风险研究
英文题目：	Study on the market forecast deviation and risk of the M&A of CN Group and UK Company
指导老师：	薛有志
中文关键字：	天然气；企业并购；预测偏差；风险应对
英文关键字：	Natural gas；Mergers and acquisitions；Predicted deviations；Risk response
中文摘要：	随着我国经济发展的加快和社会生产力的增强，我国能源应用领域发生了较大变化，取得了令人侧目的巨大成就，能源勘探开发及生产不断迎难而上，实现跳跃式发展，能源需求总体呈现较快增长态势。天然气消费量增长最为明显，2020年我国天然气年度消费量约为3262亿m3，较2019年增加近220亿m3，占全部一次能源消费比例8.7%。虽然中国的天然气消费量逐年上涨，但供应形势并不乐观，天然气产量仍处于相对较低水平，2020年国内天然气产量1888.5亿m3，进口量1373.5亿m3，对外依存度高达42.1%。在此背景下，优化能源结构, 推动天然气的高效利用成为迫在眉睫的问题。鉴于天然气行业自然垄断的特殊属性，以及行业整合提高市场集中度，努力践行国家政策的现实要求，天然气企业开展项目并购成为主流形式。 天然气企业通过横向一体化开展收并购活动是行业整合的重要手段。因我国城市燃气从起步初期就参考了美国、欧洲和日本的特许经营制度，成熟区域大多已被占据，新开发市场又需要经历漫长的招投标和市场培育，燃气企业为了实现快速扩张和优势经验输出只能以收并购的方式开展业务拓展。本文以CN集团并购UK公司为例，从企业并购中市场预测与实际差异展开研究和分析，梳理导致企业并购中出现市场预测差异的风险因素，其中包括前期尽职调查、政策变动、经济发展、文化融合以及其他能够影响市场预测的因素。并结合案例对各项影响市场预测因素进行分解，分析成因、影响程度和应对措施。在分析总结中，使用五力模型、PEST分析法对竞争环境和宏观环境进行分析，指出企业所处环境对市场预测几大因素的影响。 企业并购是企业扩张的主要形式之一，但企业并购存在较大的风险和不确定性，这些风险可能很难完全避免，这就需要并购企业认真细致的研究企业并购涉及的方方面面，充分总结行业并购经验，为进行一次完美的并购打好基础。
英文摘要：	With the development of China's economy and the improvement of social productivity, great changes have taken place in the field of energy application and it has made remarkable achievements that energy exploration, development and production continue to grasp the nettle and achieve leap-forward development, while the energy demand shows a rapid growth trend. The natural gas consumption increased significantly and accounted for 8.7% of the total energy consumption amount and its annual consumption, which has increased nearly 22 billion m3 comparing with the last year, arrived to 326.2 billion m3 in 2020. Although China's natural gas consumption is rising year by year, the supply situation is not optimistic and the production is still at a relatively low level. In 2020, our domestic natural gas output was 188.85 billion m3, while the import was 137.35 billion m3, and import dependence degree is as high as 42.1%. Under these circumstances, optimizing the energy structure and promoting the efficient use of natural gas has become urgent. Due to the natural monopoly nature of the natural gas industry and the reality of industry integration improving market concentration to implement national policies, the merger and acquisition of natural gas project has become the mainstream. Through horizontal integration to carry out M&A activities is an important means of industry integration. Since referring to the franchise system of the United States, Europe and Japan from the initial stage, China's urban gas industry has occupied most of developed regions, and the new market needs to go through a long period of bidding and market cultivation. In order to achieve rapid expansion and output advantageous experience, gas enterprises can only carry out business expansion through merger and acquisition. This thesis takes M&A between CN group and UK gas company as a case study, and then analyzes the difference between market forecast and actual situation in the enterprise M&A, finally sorts out the factors leading to the difference of market forecast in the enterprise M&A, which include advanced due diligence, policy changes, economic development, cultural infusion, and other factors that can affect the market forecast. On the basis of the case studying and interfering factors disassembling, this thesis analyzes the causes, degree of influence and countermeasures of the factors affecting the market forecast. In the analysis and summary part, this thesis uses the Porter’s Five Forces Model together with PEST analysis method to analyze the competitive environment and macro environment, and then points out the influence of the enterprise's environment on the market forecast. M&A is one of the main forms of enterprise expansion, but there are great risks and uncertainties in the process, which may be difficult to avoid completely. Therefore, M&A enterprises need to carry out extensive research into each aspect of merger and acquisition, learn from the abundant industry experience, and make fully preparation for a perfect M&A.
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