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论文编号：	12925
作者编号：	1120160804
上传时间：	2021/12/14 12:01:46
中文题目：	企业技术创新对现金持有的影响研究：基于经营风险与激励效应的双重视角
英文题目：	Research on the Impact of Corporate Technological Innovation on Cash Holdings: A Dual Perspective Based on Operating Risk and Incentive Effects
指导老师：	李姝
中文关键字：	技术创新；现金持有；经营杠杆；激励效应；外部环境不确定性
英文关键字：	Technological Innovation; Cash Holdings; Operating Leverage; Incentive Effects; External Environmental Uncertainty
中文摘要：	现金是企业中流通性最强及最具普遍可接受性的资产，长期以来，备受学界与业界关注。近年来，西方发达国家的企业现金持有水平显著增加，诸多学者从税收动机、交易性动机和代理动机等角度做出了相应的解释。有证据表明，以中国为代表的新兴市场国家中，企业现金持有同样在逐年增多，而创新型企业现金持有增幅更加明显。根据CSMAR数据库统计结果可知，企业现金持有由2007年度的1.12万亿元增加到2020年度的8.87万亿元，上涨了6.9倍。现金占比由2007年的18.15%增加到2020年的20.22%，年均增长率为0.83%。创新型企业2007年度的现金持有为1167亿元，2020年度为14870亿元，上升了11.7倍。现金占比由2007年的19.58%增加到2020年的23.66%，年均增长率为1.46%。上市企业尤其是创新型企业为何对现金资产如此偏好？企业高持现的动机是什么？是否和企业的创新相关联？有鉴于此，在“创新驱动发展战略”的背景下，本文以技术创新为切入点，对创新理论、现金持有理论、不确定性理论、优序融资理论和激励理论进行系统梳理。依据理论分析提出研究假设，以沪深A股非金融类上市企业2007-2020年数据为样本，着重探讨企业高持现是否由技术创新引起、作用机制如何，并考察该作用机制在不同调节因素下是否具有异质性，考虑到企业面临外部环境的不确定性越来越高，本文还检验了宏观经济不确定性、政策不确定性及行业不确定下，企业技术创新对现金持有影响的变化。 本文的主要研究结论如下： 第一，企业技术创新是否引发了高持现？本文研究发现，技术创新会显著增加现金持有。具体来说，一方面，技术创新的延迟性较高，失败概率大，从有创新思想的产生到市场价值的实现时间跨度较大。在此期间，每一阶段的风险因素不同，但贯穿于创新始终，任何一种风险因素都可能引起创新失败，导致前期大量的创新投入无法获得合理回报，此时基于预防性动机进行高持现显得尤为必要。另一方面，技术创新需要机器设备等专用性投入。创新的独特性使得企业需要购进更多、更先进的机器设备。由于创新是不断迭代的过程，当拥有更先进的机器设备后，更容易实现创新的突破，从而研发出更具领先性的创新产品。机器设备和原材料等需要重金从外部购入，因此，企业会出于交易性动机而选择高持现。那么，技术创新在何种情况下更易引发高持现？本文还发现以下结论。首先，“双创”政策的提出将技术创新上升到了新的高度。“双创”政策提出之后，鼓励创新的政策投入在不断加大，通过营造良好的创新环境、分担创新风险等途径缩短从创新投入到创新产出间的时间跨度，提升了企业的创新积极性，企业的创新投入水平迅速增加。因此，“双创”政策之后，技术创新与高持现间的正向关系更为显著。其次，专利保护能够有效防止当前与潜在的竞争对手出售对企业专利进行“山寨”的产品，避免了创新带来的短期垄断利润受到商业剽窃影响，刺激了创新，在加强专利保护力度后，技术创新更易引发企业高持现行为。最后，技术密集型企业的立足根本是创新，其研发的多为高精尖技术，难度大、周期长的创新项目，期间任何一种风险因素都可能会导致创新项目的失败，出于预防性而高持现的动机更为强烈。所以技术密集型企业中，创新引起高持现行为也更加普遍。 第二、对企业技术创新影响现金持有的作用机制进行分析。本文研究发现：首先，技术创新的独特性会促使企业进行一些专用性固定资产投资，从而增加了新产品固定成本占比，推升经营杠杆，具体表现为经营杠杆的升高，企业经营风险和破产风险随之上升，融资约束加剧，此时企业会缩减其他非必要投资节约资金，并持有以应对流动性不足。中介效应得到验证的情况下，进一步发现在微观、中观和宏观因素下，中介效应发挥的作用存在差异。具体表现为，融资约束较高时，高经营杠杆企业会持有更多现金；销售收入较高时，高经营杠杆企业会持有更少现金；处于高新技术、产品市场竞争程度较高、经济景气指数较低、贸易政策宽松情形下的企业，高经营杠杆会引发高持现。其次，技术创新的成功与否离不开人力资本的作用，对研发人员的激励能够提升其主观能动性，将创新投入更多转化为创新产出，开发出更多专利。激励效应对现金持有的影响，体现为对研发人员等高人力资本的激励要“高投入”和“长投入”，需要企业持有更多现金保证激励有效，维持人力资本稳定性。激励效应的中介机制得到验证，同理，进一步检验与激励效应相关的微观、中观和宏观因素的影响，发现在员工流失威胁较大、劳动力市场竞争较弱、劳动保护力度较大的情况下，激励效应的存在会显著增加企业现金持有。 第三、对外部环境不确定性在企业技术创新与现金持有间的调节作用进行分析，本文研究发现：宏观经济不确定性、政策不确定性和行业不确定性均正向强化了二者间的关系，即企业面对宏观经济不确定性较高、政策不确定性较高和行业不确定性较高情形时，技术创新对高持现的影响更为强烈。 总之，上述问题的研究既丰富了技术创新的经济后果，也为现金持有逐年增多的现象找到了另一合理解释。通过对技术创新影响现金持有的内在机制进行分析，为未来的相关研究提供了可供参考的分析框架。本文研究结论还可能对企业的管理者和政策制定者产生一定启示意义。
英文摘要：	Cash is the most liquid and universally acceptable asset in a business and has long been of interest to academics and industry. In recent years, the level of corporate cash holdings in Western developed countries has increased significantly, and many scholars have provided explanations from tax, transactional and agency motives. Evidence shows that corporate cash holdings in emerging market countries, such as China, are also increasing year by year, and the increase in cash holdings of innovative companies is even more pronounced. According to the CSMAR database, corporate cash holdings increased 6.9 times from CNY 1.12 trillion in 2007 to CNY 8.87 trillion in 2020. The holding level increased from 18.15% in 2007 to 20.22% in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 0.83%. The cash holdings of innovative enterprises were CNY 116.7 billion in 2007 and CNY 148.7 billion in 2020, an 11.7-fold increase. The holding level increased from 19.58% in 2007 to 23.66% in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 1.46%. Why do public companies, especially innovative companies, have such a preference for cash assets? What are the motivations for high corporate cash holdings? Are they linked to corporate innovation? In view of this, under the background of "innovation-driven development strategy", this dissertation takes technological innovation as the entry point and systematically reviews innovation theory, cash holding theory, uncertainty theory, optimal financing theory and incentive theory. Based on the theoretical analysis, the research hypotheses are proposed, and the data of non-financial listed enterprises in Shanghai and Shenzhen A-shares from 2007 to 2020 are used as a sample to explore whether the high cash holdings of enterprises are caused by technological innovation, how the mechanism of action works, and whether the mechanism of action is heterogeneous under different moderating factors. uncertainty and industry uncertainty, and examine the changes in the impact of firms' technological innovation on cash holdings. The main findings of this dissertation are as follows. First, does corporate technological innovation trigger high cash holdings? This dissertation finds that corporate technology innovation significantly increases cash holdings. Specifically, on the one hand, technological innovation has a high delay, a high probability of failure, and a large time span from the generation of an innovative idea to the realization of its market value. During this period, each stage has different risk factors, but throughout the innovation, any kind of risk factors may cause the innovation to fail, resulting in a large amount of innovation investment in the early stage can not get a reasonable return, and this time based on the preventive motive to hold cash is particularly necessary. On the other hand, technological innovation requires specialized inputs such as machinery and equipment. The uniqueness of innovation makes it necessary for companies to acquire more and more advanced machinery and equipment. Since innovation is an iterative process, when more advanced machinery and equipment are available, it is easier to achieve breakthroughs in innovation and thus develop more leading-edge innovative products. Machinery and equipment, raw materials, etc. require heavy external purchases, and therefore, firms will choose to hold high cash for transactional motives. Under what circumstances are firms' technological innovations more likely to trigger high cash holdings? First, the "Double Innovation" policy has raised technological innovation to a new level. After the introduction of the "Double Innovation" policy, the policy investment to encourage innovation has been increasing, and the time span between innovation input and innovation output has been shortened by creating a favorable innovation environment and sharing the innovation risk, which has enhanced the innovation enthusiasm of enterprises and increased their innovation investment level rapidly. Therefore, the positive relationship between technological innovation and high cash holdings is more significant after the "Double Innovation" policy.Patent protection can effectively prevent current and potential competitors from selling products that are "copycats" of corporate patents, avoiding short-term monopoly profits brought by innovation from being affected by commercial plagiarism and stimulating innovation, and after strengthening patent protection, technological innovation is more likely to trigger high corporate holdings. Technology-intensive enterprises are based on innovation, and most of their research and development are highly sophisticated technologies, difficult and long-period innovation projects, during which any kind of risk factors may lead to the failure of innovation projects, and the motive of high holding is stronger for preventive reasons. Therefore, innovation-induced high holding behavior is also more common in technology-intensive companies. Second, the mechanism of the effect of corporate technological innovation on cash holdings is analyzed. This dissertation finds that: first, the uniqueness of technological innovation will prompt enterprises to purchase some specialized machines and other equipment, which increases the proportion of fixed costs of new products and pushes up the operating leverage, specifically in the form of higher operating leverage, the consequent rise of enterprise operating risk and bankruptcy risk, and the intensification of financing constraints, when enterprises will curtail other non-essential investments to save money and hold to cope with the lack of liquidity. With the intermediation effect verified, it is further found that there is heterogeneity in the intermediation effect under the moderation of micro, meso and macro variables. Specifically, high operating leverage firms hold more cash when financing constraints are higher; high operating leverage firms hold less cash when sales revenue is higher; and high operating leverage triggers high cash holdings for firms in high-tech, high product market competition, low economic boom index, and trade policy easing scenarios. Second, the success of technological innovation cannot be achieved without the role of human capital. Incentives for R&D personnel can enhance their subjective motivation to convert more innovation inputs into innovation outputs and develop more patents. The impact of incentive effect on cash holdings is that the incentive for high human capital such as R&D personnel should be "high" and "long", which requires the company to hold more cash to ensure the incentive is effective and maintain the stability of human capital. The mediating mechanism of the incentive effect is verified. Similarly, the moderating variables related to the incentive effect are added, and it is found that the existence of the incentive effect will significantly increase the cash holdings of enterprises under the circumstances of higher threat of employee turnover, weaker labor market competition, and stronger labor protection. Third, to analyze the moderating role of environmental uncertainty between firms' technological innovation and cash holdings, this dissertation finds that macroeconomic uncertainty, policy uncertainty and industry uncertainty all positively strengthen the relationship between them, i.e., the impact of technological innovation on high cash holdings is stronger when firms face higher macroeconomic uncertainty, higher policy uncertainty and higher industry uncertainty. In conclusion, the study of the above issues both enriches the economic consequences of technological innovation and finds another plausible explanation for the increase in cash holdings from year to year. By analyzing the intrinsic mechanisms through which technological innovation affects cash holdings, it provides an analytical framework for future related research. The findings of this dissertation may also have some implications for managers and policy makers of firms.
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