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论文编号：	12598
作者编号：	2320180543
上传时间：	2021/6/16 15:44:18
中文题目：	敌意收购的市场公告效应——基于宝万之争的案例研究
英文题目：	The Market Announcement Effect of Hostile Takeover ——A Case Study based on the Baowan Dispute
指导老师：	古志辉 教授
中文关键字：	万科股权之争；敌意收购；跨市场并购；公告效应；AH股溢价
英文关键字：	The equity dispute of Vanke; Hostile takeover; Cross-border M&A; Announcement effect; AH share premium
中文摘要：	在股权分置时代，国内大部分上市公司的并购案例都是通过与控股股东达成协议善意并购的方式。随着股权分置改革进入全流通时代，上市公司大股东持股比例持续下降，在股权分散化的市场背景下，上市公司控制权争夺的案例逐渐增多，万科做为深港两地交叉上市的蓝筹公司，宝万之争是跨市场敌意并购的代表性案例，具有重要的研究意义。 本文将案例中万科A股和H股公告市场效应和溢价率作为研究对象，首先总结梳理相应的文献，对有效市场假说、交叉上市理论，公司控制权市场及并购公告市场效应的相关理论研究做了回顾总结。 其次，对案例中万科公司的发展历程、财务状况、股权结构作了系统总结，结合当时的内外部环境进一步分析宝能和其他险资并购万科的主要动因，在梳理宝万之争案例发展的整体脉络后，对万科反收购策略进行总结和分析。 再次，在实证分析部分，采用事件分析法对公告的超额回报率进行研究，发现举牌增持公告有明显正向收益，但超额回报主要来自于公告前5天，存在明显内幕效应。举牌窗口内万科H股市场效应基本符合半强式市场的检验。同时对宝能集团，恒大地产，深铁集团不同利益主体的并购公告效应进行独立分析，发现内地和香港投资者对不同利益主体举牌公告市场反应并不同步，其反映两地投资者对并购事件价值判断的分歧。而案例后期宝能退出质押解除的公告效应两地都为正向收益。利用调整后AH溢价率这个指标对案例中四个举牌期AH溢价变化趋势进行研究，发现AH溢价率变化和A股波动幅度明显正相关，结合两地市场投资者结构差异，表明A股市场中存在更多噪音交易者，进一步验证了交叉上市溢价理论中的投资者理念差异假说。文中还对宝万之争结束后宝能退出阶段AH溢价率进行总结分析。 最后基于研究结论，虽然宝万之争最终给万科公司市场价值和公司治理都带来正向的影响，但在监管环节和各方参与过程中有很多问题有待解决，从交易制度、投资者保护等角度对监管部门提出了政策建议。
英文摘要：	In the context of Split share structure, most of the domestic M&A cases are through friendly takeover by reaching an agreement with the controlling shareholders. With the reform of non-tradable shares entering the era of full circulation, the shareholding ratio of major shareholders of listed companies continues to decline, and the decentralization of shares leads to the gradual increase of control battle, As a blue-chip cross-listed company in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, the dispute between Baoneng and Vanke is a representative case of cross-market hostile merger and acquisition, which has important research significance. First, the thesis takes the announcement market effect in the Baowan dispute as the research object, reviews and summarizes efficient market hypothesis, market for corporate control theory, merger and acquisition and anti-merger concept, cross-listing theory and research results on the market effect of merger announcement. Secondly, summarizes the development history, financial status, and equity structure of Vanke, combined with the internal and external environment to analyzed the main motivations of Baoneng and other insurance capital's acquisition of Vanke, and summarize Vanke anti-takeover strategy. Thirdly, in the part of empirical analysis, the event analysis method is used to study the announcement of excess return, and it is found that the announcement of increasing holdings has significant positive return, but the excess return is mainly from 5 days before the announcement, there is an obvious insider trading effect. The market effect of Vanke's H-share in the event window basically conforms to the test of semi-strong market. At the same time, independent analysis of the announcement effect of Baoneng group, Hengda group and Shenzhen metro group was conducted, and it was found that the market reaction of traders of Shenzhen and Hongkong stock market to the acquisition of different interest subjects was not consistent, reflecting the difference in investment philosophy of investors from two places. Using the adjusted AH premium rate as an indicator to study the variation trend of AH premium in the four acquisition periods in the case, it is found that the variation of AH premium rate is significantly positively correlated with the fluctuation range of A shares. combined with our market investors structure difference, suggests that more noise traders exist in the A-share market, further verify the cross-listing premium investors concept differences in the theory hypothesis. The thesis also summarizes and analyzes the AH premium rate after the Baowan dispute. Finally, based on the research conclusion, although the Baowan dispute has a positive impact on the market value and corporate governance of Vanke, there are many problems to be solved in the process of supervision and the participation of all parties. Policy suggestions are put forward to the regulatory authorities from the perspectives of trading system and investor protection etc.
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