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论文编号：	1255
作者编号：	2120071947
上传时间：	2009/6/12 12:50:02
中文题目：	管理者过度自信、企业扩张与可持
英文题目：	The Empirical Research on Mana
指导老师：	周宝源
中文关键字：	管理者过度自信、企业扩张、扩张
英文关键字：	Managerial Overconfidence、 Fi
中文摘要：	处于新兴市场中的中国企业具有强烈的扩张冲动，“做大做强”成为近年来我国企业的流行语，这种提法在各种报刊、企业管理者的谈话甚至是企业章程中都高频率的出现。在这种竞争日趋激烈的市场环境下，我国企业不断通过各种方式来扩大企业的规模，增强企业的竞争力，从而实现企业的增长。 从我国上市公司来看，企业扩张一直都处于较高水平，国家统计局网站公布的数据显示：2004-2007年企业的固定资产投资景气指数分别为117.0、115.3、120.8、123.2，均处于景气区间，表明我国企业的投资热情比较高。另外，我国企业的国内外并购案件也频频发生，并购金额逐年攀升等等，2006年被中国的经济界誉为“并购年”，2007年中国资本市场上的并购交易延续了2006年的欣欣向荣，可以用”深刻”两个字来描述。在企业高速扩张的背后，存在着许多的扩张动机，本文从行为财务学角度，研究管理者的过度自信对企业扩张的速度、扩张方式的选择的影响。企业扩张的本意是为了增强企业的市场竞争力，提高企业可持续发展能力，但在管理者过度自信影响下的企业扩张会加大企业的扩张风险，对其长期发展产生负面的影响。 本文从过度自信理论出发，结合企业扩张理论和企业可持续发展理论，研究管理者过度自信对企业扩张及企业长期发展能力的影响。首先，分别介绍管理者过度自信理论、企业扩张理论和财务可持续增长理论。其次，结合我国特殊的经济发展背景，说明我国管理者产生过度自信心理的原因，并深入分析管理者过度自信与企业扩张的关系，过度自信的管理者实施的企业扩张对企业可持续发展的影响。企业扩张是出于取得持久竞争优势、增强企业竞争力的目的，因此企业的总投资应该带来企业可持续增长能力的提升，然而受管理者过度自信的影响，却可能给企业的业绩及长期发展能力带来负面的影响，短期内带来的企业规模的扩大却不利于企业的长期发展。 本文采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法，在理论分析基础上提出相关的研究假设，并利用中国上市公司深沪两市A股上市公司2005-2007年的数据，采用描述性统计、相关性检验、多元线性回归、逻辑回归及三阶段最小二乘回归的实证方法验证本文的假设。研究发现，管理者过度自信对我国企业的扩张产生显著的影响，管理者过度自信与企业的总投资水平、内部扩张和外部扩张均存在显著的正相关关系，过度自信的管理者会采用激进的内外部扩张方式来实现企业的扩张，并且过度自信的管理者所实施的扩张战略会减弱企业的长期竞争能力。本文的贡献在于进一步丰富了关于管理者过度自信的相关研究，并从企业可持续发展这一新角度进行扩展，使得管理者在制定企业财务战略时以可持续增长思想为指导，根据企业的实际状况制定更加有效的发展战略，实施基于核心能力的扩张战略，取得企业扩张成功和可持续发展。另外，从管理者过度自信角度对企业扩张进行研究，能够解释传统扩张理论所不能解释的现象，有助于企业发现扩张失败或低效的原因，也有助于加强企业内外部的监督约束机制，来平衡管理者的过度自信心理，使企业的发展更加健康化。
英文摘要：	Enterprises in China have a strong impulse to expand in the emerging markets.To be "bigger and stronger" has become popular in recent years.And such references can be seen in a variety of newsthesiss, business managers’ talks and even the enterprise's charter in a higher frequency. Under the increasingly competitive market environment, enterprises in China expand their business scale and enhance the competitiveness of enterprises through various ways. So they can achieve business growth. Judging from listed companies in China, enterprises have been expanding at a high level. The data published on the website of the National Bureau of Statistics shows: from 2004 to 2007, enterprises’ fixed-asset investment business climate indexes are 117.0、115.3、120.8、123.2 respectivey. And under the economy range, enterprises’ M&A events occur frequently at home and abroad, the amounts of acquisition also rise yearly. So 2006 was called the "M&A Year" by China economic circles. In the capital marke of 2007, M&A transaction continues its prosperity as 2006, so we can use the word "deep" to describe it. There are many motives behind the high-speed expansion in the enterprise. In this thesis, we study the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm expansion from the prespective of behavioral finance. This thesis studies the impact of managerial overconfidence on firm expansion and corporate’s long-term development capacity from managerial overconfidence theory, combined with business expansion theory and the corporate sustainable growth theory. Firstly, this thesis introduces the managerial overconfidence theory、firm expansion theory and financial sustainable growth theory respectively. Secondly, combined with special economic development background of China, this thesis gives the reasons why managers in China are overconfident and deep analysis the relationship between managerial over-confidence、 firm expansion and the firm’s sustainable development. Investment or expansion is able to enhance enterprises’ long-term development, achieve a lasting competitive advantage and sustainable development. So the total investment should bring the enterprises’ sustainable growth. However, owing to the managers’ non-rational decision-making behavior, it may have negative impact on business long-term performance and development capacity. The bigger scale brought by expansion in the short-term is not conducive to the enterprise’ long-term development. In this thesis, both the standardize research and the empirical research methods are used, some assumptions are given related to research based on the theoretical analysis. Based on the data of listed companies from 2005 to 2007, statistical tests, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and three-stage least-squares regression methods are used to condut the empirical test and verify the assumptions. The results show that managerial overconfidence influense significantly the velocity of firm expansion, and it is significantly positive with firm total inwestment, internal expansion and external expansion, we can see overconfident manager may use any means that can be used to achieve the expansion of enterprises. Furthermore, we study the relationship of managerial overconfidence, firm expansion and firm’s performance and find that the expansion strategy implement by the overconfidence manager has a significant negative impact on the firm’s sustainable development capacity. The expansion behavior under the impact of non-rational factors will weaken the firm’s long-term competitiveness capacity. The contribution of this thesis is to enrich the further research about managerial overconfidence and give some suggestions from the point of business sustainable development.
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