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论文编号：	12510
作者编号：	2120192824
上传时间：	2021/6/14 21:32:32
中文题目：	经济政策不确定性对企业并购的影响研究
英文题目：	Research on the Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Corporate M&A
指导老师：	李姝
中文关键字：	经济政策不确定性；企业并购；融资约束；产权性质
英文关键字：	Economic Policy Uncertainty; Corporate M&A; Financial Constraints; Ownership
中文摘要：	政府出台的经济政策是否连贯、一致是影响宏观经济稳定性的重要因素。对于整个资本市场而言，并购是优化资源配置的一个重要途径，对于微观企业而言，并购是一项高风险与高投入并存的投资决策，既会受到企业自身内部因素的影响，也会不可避免地被外部环境所左右。本文结合实物期权理论、信息不对称理论等经典理论进行分析，发现微观企业的并购意愿和并购频次可能会受到宏观经济政策不确定性的抑制。 为了验证本文猜想，作者搜集了2008-2019年上市公司相关数据进行实证分析。研究发现，经济政策不确定性与并购意愿及频次负相关。一方面，基于实物期权理论，并购的宏观环境不明朗时，期权的等待价值会上升，会使企业并购意愿降低、并购频次减少。另一方面，当经济政策不确定性较高时，企业内外部的信息不对称、不透明程度也会随之升高，加剧企业的融资约束，减弱其对外并购的能力，由此带来并购意愿和并购频次的缩减。另外，本文发现经济政策不确定程度与企业融资约束的严重程度呈同向变动。而融资约束的强弱程度会显著影响企业的并购意愿和并购频次。通过使用中介效应检验，本文发现融资约束在经济政策不确定性抑制并购活动过程中发挥着部分中介作用。 此外，本文关注了国有企业与非国有企业在经济政策不确定时期的并购决策是否存在差异。研究发现，非国有企业的并购意愿和并购频次在不确定时期的削减幅度远远高于国有企业的同期水平。
英文摘要：	Whether the government's economic policies are coherent and consistent is an important factor affecting macroeconomic stability. For the entire capital market, M&A could help to allocate resources effectively. For micro-enterprises, M&A is a coexisting decision of high risk and high investment, which will not only be affected by internal factors but also is inevitably influenced by the outside factors. Combing theories related to real option and information asymmetry, the author that found the increase in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) may inhibit enterprises' M&A. To verify the conjectures, the author collected the M&A data and financial data of listed companies from 2008 to 2019 for empirical analysis. The thesis found that EPU is negatively correlated with the willingness and frequency of M&A. On the one hand, based on the theory of real options, when the macro environment is highly uncertain, the waiting value of options will increase, which will reduce the willingness and the frequency of M&A. On the other hand, when the EPU is high, the information asymmetry will aggravate the principal-agent problem, intensifying the financing constraints faced by the enterprise, and weakening the ability of enterprises to make outbound M&A. This thesis found the more uncertain economic policies are, the stronger the financial constraints faced by companies, and the degree of financial constraints will significantly affect the willingness and frequency of M&A. By using the intermediary effect test method, this thesis found that financing constraints play a part of the intermediary effect in the EPU restraining M&A activities. In addition, this thesis focuses on whether there are differences in the M&A decisions of state-owned enterprises and non-state-owned enterprises during the uncertain economic policy period. The thesis found that the reduction of non-state-owned enterprises' willingness and frequency of M&A during the uncertain period is much higher than that of state-owned enterprises in the same period.
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