联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	1247
作者编号：	2120071942
上传时间：	2009/6/12 13:33:44
中文题目：	流动性紧缩与上市公司投资行为研
英文题目：	Research on Liquidity Crunch a
指导老师：	陆宇建
中文关键字：	流动性紧缩、货币政策、法定存款
英文关键字：	Liquidity crunch、Monetary pol
中文摘要：	2003年以来，我国经济快速发展，但也存在一些影响经济、金融持续健康发展的矛盾和问题：经济快速增长主要由固定资产投资需求拉动，且经济的快速增长主要依靠的是原材料和能源的高投入，基本上还属于粗放型经济；房地产投资居高不下，价格一路攀升，资本市场出现泡沫。经济运行中存在的投资需求进一步膨胀、货币信贷增长持续偏快、通货膨胀压力等问题进一步显现，加剧了经济的结构性矛盾，使我国经济不能够持续、健康、稳定、快速地发展。抑制信贷、投资和顺差过快增长和流动性过剩逐渐成为宏观调控的重要任务，货币政策由“稳健”转为“稳中偏紧”。人民银行综合运用法定存款准备金率、公开市场业务操作为代表的多种货币政策工具大力回收银行体系多余流动性。此外，以“区别对待、有保有压”的信贷政策引导，限制对过热行业和不符合国家产业政策的企业的信贷投放。另一方面，证监会提高了上市公司再融资分红比例，规定上市公司发行新股须符合“最近三年以现金或股票方式累计分配的利润不少于最近三年实现的年均可分配利润30%”。中国社会主义市场经济处在初级阶段，间接融资居于主导地位，一方面是从紧的货币政策，一方面是提高的直接融资要求，企业在严峻的货币、信贷政策下，该如何调整投资行为是值得关注的问题。 本文运用理论研究和实证分析相结合的研究方法，首先分析政策背景和货币政策传导机制，推导出流动性紧缩对上市公司投资行为的作用机理；在理论研究的基础上，运用实证研究的方法以法定存款准备金率的提高作为流动性紧缩的替代变量，研究流动性紧缩对上市公司投资行为的影响，研究结果表明：宏观经济流动性紧缩与上市公司内部流动性显著负相关；宏观经济流动性与上市公司投资规模显著负相关。在流动性紧缩背景下，房地产业的投资规模有较大缩减；规模小的公司投资规模对流动性的敏感度强于规模大的公司；筹资活动现金流量与投资规模显著正相关，并且在流动性紧缩背景下，投资规模对筹资活动现金流量的依赖性更强。本文进一步以公开市场业务操作作为自变量的替代变量，以购建固定资产、无形资产及其他长期资产支付的现金流出量作为企业投资的替代变量进行稳健性检验，检验结果与原结果一致。本文的创新之处在于将宏观经济变量与微观公司变量结合起来，考察货币政策及信贷政策的有效性。结尾部分提出改进宏观经济政策和微观公司财务政策的建议，指出本研究尚存在的不足,并展望了今后的研究方向。
英文摘要：	Though the GDP of China has been developing rapidly since the year 2003, there are several contradictions and problems which restrict the development of economy and finance in China. These problems go as follows: rapid development of economy mostly depends on the consumption of raw materials and energy; the investment in real estate is still so hot that the price keeps going high and the capital market exists bubble. Moreover, the requirement of investment becomes more increasing, monetary credit increases excessively and the pressure of inflation and all these things increase structural contradiction of economy, further more, constrict the healthy and steady development . Solving all these problems above becomes the most important task of macro-control. So the monetary policy becomes “tight ”contrasting with the old “steady monetary policy”. The people’s bank of China applies statutory deposit reserve ratio and open market operation and other monetary tools to bring back the excessive liquidity in bank system. Besides, using the credit policy which calls for “ treat differently : promotes certain industries and limits others” to guide that our economy develops structurally. Meanwhile, the CSRC enhances the proportion of net income using as dividend when issuing of new shares which require that the proportion of net income of latest three years using for dividend mustn’t be less than 30%. Economy of China is in its junior stage, and indirect finance is dominate. So facing to tight monetary policy and more strict requirement for direct finance, it is an attractive topic of how enterprises adjust their investment behavior under serious monetary and credit policy. This thesis uses theoretical study and empirical analyzing. Firstly, it analyzes the political background and monetary policy transmission mechanism, deduce the mechanism how liquidity crunch has effect on enterprises’ investment behavior. Secondly, it uses the enhancing statutory deposit reserve ratio as the proxy of liquidity crunch to test the objective effect of liquidity crunch has on enterprises’ investment. The results are: Macro-liquidity crunch is negatively correlate with listed companies’ inner liquidity significantly. Macro-liquidity crunch is negatively correlate with the scale of listed companies’ investment. Under the condition of liquidity crunch, the investment of the real estate industry decrease seriously. The sensitivity of investment to liquidity of small companies is more serious than big companies. The cash flows of financing activities is positively correlated with investment significantly. Under the condition of liquidity crunch, investment is more dependent on cash flows of financing activities. In order to ensure the credibility of the results, a robust test is made in which open market operation is used as the proxy as liquidity crunch, while cash flows to purchase fixed assets, intangible assets and other long time assets is used as the proxy of investment. Result of robust test is correspond with the former. The biggiest innovation of this thesis is associate macro economic variables with micro economic variables to study the effect of monetary and credit policy. In the end, some suggestions are made to improve the macro economic policies and micro financial policies. Finally, the thesis points out drawbacks of this study and looks forward to the direction for future study.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)