联系我们

论文查询结果	返回搜索

论文编号：	12466
作者编号：	2120192835
上传时间：	2021/6/11 21:24:27
中文题目：	企业战略差异对分析师盈余预测准确性的
英文题目：	The Impact of Enterprise Strategic Differences
指导老师：	牛芳
中文关键字：	企业战略；战略差异；分析师预测；信息披露
英文关键字：	Corporate strategy; Strategic difference; Analyst forecast;
中文摘要：	战略是企业为了获取竞争优势指定的规划与采取的行动，在行业发展过程中企业会逐渐形成一致的常规战略。由于企业资源、经营目标存在不同，为了获取更高的业绩和利润，企业有动机偏离行业常规战略，偏离的程度就是战略差异度。战略差异会影响企业的经营业绩，提高盈余波动，加剧市场信息不对称。证券分析师依靠市场信息进行盈余预测，企业战略信息是分析师参考的依据。分析师盈利预测准确性作为预测质量的一个关键指标，是否会因为企业战略差异受到影响，本文将对此问题展开研究。本文选取 2008-2019 年的全部沪深 A 股上市公司为研究样本，手工搜集分析师对上市公司的 56496 份预测报告数据。首先，根据已有文献计算战略差异度以及盈余预测误差，检验二者之间的关系；其次，手工搜集企业信息披露质量、网络媒体关注度与行业竞争程度数据，从信息不对称的角度出发，探究信息披露质量、网络媒体关注度与行业竞争程度的调节作用。本文的研究结果显示，企业战略差异度越大，分析师盈余预测准确性越低。进一步研究发现，信息披露质量可以削弱这种负面影响，网络媒体关注度会增强差异度对分析师预测准确性的影响，行业竞争程度会削弱战略差异度对分析师预测准确性的影响。本文可能的贡献在于，从信息不对称的视角出发，丰富和补充了战略差异与分析师预测的研究框架，本文的研究结果有助于企业审慎选择经营战略，也有助于分析师提高预测质量。
英文摘要：	Strategy is a designated plan and action taken by an enterprise in order to obtain a competitive advantage. During the development of the industry, the enterprise will gradually form a consistent conventional strategy. Due to differences in corporate resources and business objectives, in order to obtain higher performance and profits, companies have the motive to deviate from the industry's conventional strategy. Strategic deviance will affect the business performance of companies, increase earnings volatility, and aggravate market information asymmetry. Securities analysts rely on market information to make earnings forecasts, and they need to refer to corporate strategy information. The accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts is a key indicator of forecast quality. Whether the increase in strategic deviance will affect the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts is the main issue to be discussed in this article. This study uses the forecast data of each securities analyst of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2008 to 2019 as a research sample to explore the impact of corporate strategic deviance on the accuracy of individual analysts’ earnings forecasts. Firstly, this study calculates the degree of strategic deviance and the earnings forecast error based on the existing literature to test the relationship between the two. Secondly, this study collects data on the quality of corporate information disclosure, media attention and industry competition, starting from the perspective of information asymmetry to explore the moderating effects of information disclosure quality, media attention and industry competition. The results of this study show that the greater the degree of corporate strategy deviance, the lower the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Further research found that the quality of information disclosure can weaken the negative impact of strategic differences on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts. Online media attention will increase the impact of strategic differences on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. The degree of industry competition will weaken the impact of strategic differences on the accuracy of analysts’ forecasts. The possible contribution of this study is that it enriches and supplements the research framework of strategic differences and analyst forecasts, which helps companies choose business strategies prudently and also helps analysts improve the quality of forecasts.
查看全文：	预览  下载(下载需要进行登录)