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论文编号：	12430
作者编号：	2320170842
上传时间：	2021/6/10 23:33:57
中文题目：	A跨省天然气管道工程项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of A Trans-provincial Natural Gas Pipeline Project
指导老师：	林润辉
中文关键字：	天然气管道工程；风险管理；工程项目；应对措施；风险评价
英文关键字：	Natural gas pipeline engineering; Risk management; Engineering project; Countermeasures; Risk assessment
中文摘要：	摘要 近年来中国经济一直保持“快车道”发展模式，同时我国也一直强调经济发展顺应生态文明建设的要求，因此对在21世纪能源改革中扮演至关重要角色的天然气等优质能源的需求也在与日俱增。天然气凭借其绿色、高热能的特性在能源结构改革中发挥着至关重要的作用，因此全国多地开始建设长距离天然气管道，项目建设数量逐渐累积，投资规模也持续扩大。但我们不能忽视在工程数量及规模不断提升，投入的资金、人力等资源不断累积，管道项目的距离和复杂程度日益增加的同时，如果忽略风险管理，在天然气管道施工和运营各环节中容易受到安全生产以及内部资源的协调和外部客观环境带来的影响，加大不可控因素的干预程度，进而造成项目投资失败及不良的社会影响。因此,有必要在天然气管道工程立项和设计阶段对风险管理全流程开展研究,对项目风险进行系统的识别、评价，并采取有效的应对策略，使得项目能够高效完成，同时保证项目安全性，提高项目经济效益。 在本次研究中，首先应用文献研究法，广泛收集国内外与风险管理相关的 研究成果，并进行全面细致的分析，详细了解天然气管道项目建设中风险管理的发展形势，为本次研究奠定理论基础，确定风险管理的特征，并选择适宜的风险管理策略。其次是利用案例研究法，结合实际案例A跨省天然气管道工程项目特点，利用德尔菲法对天然气管道工程项目具备的风险因素进行识别,并设计出更为科学严谨的专家综合权重模型。通过层次分析法和模糊综合评价法相结合,构建天然气管道工程项目风险评价模型。并以A跨省天然气管道工程项目的已识别出的风险以及相应的专家评分，对风险评价模型进行实证量化分析,计算得出A跨省天然气管道工程项目的风险情况和评价等级。最后,以A跨省天然气管道工程项目风险评价所得结果作为依据，根据实际需要提出风险因素应对思路，并制定应用于各具体风险因素的风险管理方案并加以监控和优化。 本文研究了天然气管道工程项目的风险管理,创建风险因素评价模型，以期能够提高风险管理水平，同时促进天然气行业风险评价管理意识的提升，为天然气管道工程项目的风险管理提供积极的参考。 关键词：天然气管道工程；风险管理；工程项目；应对措施；风险评价
英文摘要：	Abstract In recent years, China’s economy has maintained a "fast track" development model. At the same time, my country has always emphasized that economic development should comply with the requirements of ecological civilization construction. Therefore, the demand for high-quality energy such as natural gas, which plays a vital role in the energy reform in the 21st century, is also increasing day by day. Natural gas plays a vital role in the reform of the energy structure due to its green and high-heat characteristics. Therefore, long-distance natural gas pipelines have been built in many parts of the country. The number of projects has gradually accumulated and the scale of investment has continued to expand. However, we cannot ignore the continuous increase in the number and scale of projects, the continuous accumulation of invested capital, manpower and other resources, and the increasing distance and complexity of pipeline projects. At the same time, if risk management is ignored, it will be vulnerable to natural gas pipeline construction and operation. Safety production, the coordination of internal resources and the impact of the external objective environment increase the degree of intervention of uncontrollable factors, which in turn causes project investment failures and adverse social impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to carry out research on the whole process of risk management during the project approval and design phases of natural gas pipeline projects, systematically identify and evaluate project risks, and adopt effective response strategies, so that the project can be completed efficiently, while ensuring project safety and improving Project economic benefits. In this thesis, the literature research method is first applied to extensively collect research results related to risk management at home and abroad, and conduct a comprehensive and detailed analysis to understand in detail the development situation of risk management in the construction of natural gas pipeline projects, so as to lay the theory for this research Foundation, determine the characteristics of risk management, and select appropriate risk management strategies. The second is to use the case study method, combined with the characteristics of the actual case A cross-provincial natural gas pipeline project, use the Delphi method to identify the risk factors of the natural gas pipeline project, and design a more scientific and rigorous expert comprehensive weight model. Through the combination of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, the risk evaluation model of natural gas pipeline engineering project is constructed. And based on the identified risks of the A cross-provincial natural gas pipeline project and the corresponding expert scores, the risk evaluation model is empirically and quantitatively analyzed, and the risk situation and evaluation level of the A cross-provincial natural gas pipeline project are calculated. Finally, based on the results of the risk evaluation of the A cross-provincial natural gas pipeline project, the risk factor response ideas are proposed according to actual needs, and the risk management plan applied to each specific risk factor is formulated and monitored and optimized. This thesis studies the risk management of natural gas pipeline engineering projects and creates risk factor evaluation models in order to improve the level of risk management, and at the same time promote the awareness of risk assessment management in the natural gas industry, and provide a positive reference for the risk management of natural gas pipeline projects. Key Words:Natural gas pipeline engineering; Risk management; Engineering project; Countermeasures; Risk assessment
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