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论文编号：	12395
作者编号：	2120192803
上传时间：	2021/6/10 12:15:27
中文题目：	贸易政策不确定性对企业创新投入的影响研究
英文题目：	Study on the Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Corporate Innovation Investment
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	贸易政策不确定性；创新；出口
英文关键字：	Trade policy uncertainty; Innovation; Export
中文摘要：	随着全球化浪潮不断推进，国际贸易成为世界各国关注的话题。近年来，英国脱欧、中美贸易摩擦等事件都给世界政治经济带来不确定因素，贸易保护主义风潮愈演愈烈，贸易政策不确定性也成为了学术界的重要议题，越来越多的研究关注贸易政策不确定性在宏观和微观两个层面的影响。近年来，中国政府深入实施国家“十三五”规划纲要和“创新驱动发展战略”，创新成为引领时代发展的新动力。本文利用2010-2019年九个行业A股上市公司数据，参考已有研究，以关税度量的方法，选取与中国贸易往来密切的四个国家：美国、日本、韩国、印度，根据各产品出口占比，对关税度量方法计算得到的各国TPU值进行加权平均作为中国各产品出口市场的贸易政策不确定性指数，在探究贸易政策不确定性对企业创新投入影响的基础上，进一步探究其影响的异质性。 根据本文的实证结果，贸易政策不确定性显著促进了企业的创新投入。然而，较高的融资约束削弱了贸易政策不确定性对企业创新投入的促进作用，限制了企业的创新投资行为。从贸易竞争力的角度来看，对于贸易竞争力较强的行业，中国企业在国际贸易中有更大的话语权，受到贸易政策冲击更小。相反，如果企业所在的行业贸易竞争力较弱，面临较复杂的贸易政策环境时，企业的市场份额面临较大威胁，更需要加强研发投入，争取在市场上站稳脚跟。为探究不同行业和不同企业之间影响的异质性，本文进行进一步分组检验，按行业集中度分组回归结果显示，低行业集中度的组别中，贸易政策不确定性对企业的创新投入具有显著的促进作用。按企业性质分组回归结果显示，国有企业、高新技术企业、收到政府补助的企业的组别中，贸易政策不确定性均显著促进了企业的创新投入。 本文的研究丰富了贸易政策不确定性对企业创新投入方面的文献，将宏观贸易背景和微观企业行为联系起来，探究中国企业的创新投入在贸易政策不确定性波动时如何变化，考察这种作用受到哪些因素影响、是否因企业性质的不同而有差异。本文的研究为政府和企业如何进行创新投入以应对贸易政策不确定性提供了一定参考，具有较强的现实意义。
英文摘要：	With the continuous advancement of globalization, international trade has become a topic for all countries in the world. In recent years, events such as Brexit and Sino-US trade frictions have brought uncertainties to the world in terms of politics and economy. Trade protectionism has become more and more intensified. Trade policy uncertainty has also become an important issue in the academic community, more and more studies pay attention to the impact of trade policy uncertainty at both the macro and micro levels. In recent years, the Chinese government has deeply implemented the"13th Five-Year Plan" and "Innovation -driven Development Strategy". Innovation has become a new driving force leading the development of the times. This article uses the data of A-share listed companies in nine industries from 2010 to 2019, refers to existing research and uses the method of tariff measurement to select four countries that have close trade relations with China: the United States, Japan, Korea, and India. Using relevant tariff data, calculate the TPU value of the export markets of various products in the above four countries. According to the weighted average of the export proportions of this type of products to the United States, Japan, Korea, and India, the trade policy uncertainty of the product export industry in that year is obtained.It explores the impact of trade policy uncertainty on innovation investment and further explores the heterogeneity of its impact. According to the empirical results of this article, the uncertainty of trade policy significantly promotes innovation investment of enterprises. However, higher financing constraints weaken the promotion of the trade policy uncertainty on the innovation investment of enterprises, limit the innovation investment behavior of enterprises. From the perspective of trade competitiveness, if a industry have a greater say in international trade, it will be less impacted by trade policy uncertainty. On the contrary, if the industry is weak in trade competitiveness and face with a more complex trade market, its market share will face greater threats, and it will be necessary to strengthen R&D investment to strive for a firm foothold in the market. In order to explore the heterogeneity of impacts in different industries and different companies, this article conducts further grouping tests.The regression results grouped by industry concentration show that in the low industry concentration group, the uncertainty of trade policy has a significant role in promoting R&D of enterprises. The regression results grouped by the nature of enterprises show that in the groups of state-owned enterprises, high-tech enterprises, and enterprises receiving government subsidies, trade policy uncertainty has significantly promoted the innovation investment of enterprises. The research in this article enriches the literature on the impact of trade policy uncertainty on corporate innovation input, links the macro trade background and micro corporate behavior, explores how the innovation input of Chinese companies changes when trade policy uncertainty fluctuates, examines the regulating effect and whether there are differences due to the nature of the company. The research in this article provides reference for the government and enterprises in innovation to deal with the trade policy uncertainty, which has strong practical significance.
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