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论文编号：	12282
作者编号：	2120183063
上传时间：	2021/3/3 19:39:05
中文题目：	Y房地产项目财务风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Financial Risk Management of Y Real Estate Project
指导老师：	边泓、孙慧强
中文关键字：	房地产项目；财务风险；动态盈亏平衡分析
英文关键字：	Real Estate Project; Financial Risk; Dynamic Break-even Analysis
中文摘要：	近年来，房地产行业在迅速发展的国民经济中占比逐渐提升。房地产行业容易受到政策及市场环境的影响，不但投资周期长，而且投资金额大，需要承受较高的风险。由于房地产开发过程中资金投入量较大，大多开发商通过加大杠杆进行大规模的开发，其债务资金比例也不断攀升，当前房地产企业的资产负债率普遍超过70%。2018年以来，在不断加强的宏观调控和金融紧缩政策的影响下，房地产行业利润下降，在新的发展阶段应当重视财务风险并加强管控。2019年，房地产行业政策在经济面临较大的压力的背景下，坚持以“稳”为主并重点防范房地产金融风险。 本文基于目前房地产市场调控政策及融资环境，以G集团Y房地产项目为案例，研究发现项目对财务风险的管理不到位。Y房地产项目的财务风险主要体现在两个方面，一是销售价格明显无法达到预期水平，各项财务指标均无法实现，存在较大的投资风险；二是项目销售回款状况不佳带来资金问题，甚至开发贷款到期不能还本付息，由此引发资金回收风险和筹资风险。上述情况很可能导致项目投资失败，陷入财务危机。本文首先在原有项目投资方案测算内含报酬率、销售净利率等财务指标的基础上，运用动态盈亏平衡分析的方法对投资风险进行定量评估，计算不同组合下的保本点销售价格，并提出应当对项目现金流及内部收益率定期分析。接着针对项目开始后销售回款情况不达标等问题，对项目偿还开发贷款所需资金进行动态监控。最后在改进建议的基础上，提出相应的保障措施。在今后G集团的项目开发过程中运用上述方法，可以实现对风险的评估和监控，财务人员可以及时对风险做出预警，协同相关职能采取应对措施，促进项目既定目标的达成。
英文摘要：	In recent years, the proportion of the real estate in social economy has gradually increased. The development of the industry is often influenced by policies and markets. It not only has long investment cycle, but also has large investment scale. Therefore, this industry is under high level of risk. Usually, since real estate companies need large amount of capital investment, a large number of them have high financial leverage. The total debt ratio of real estate enterprises generally exceeds 70%. Since the year 2018, with the influence of continuously macroeconomic regulation and financial constraint, the profit rate in the industry is decreasing. As a result, they should pay more attention to financial and political risk. In the year 2019, the economic growth rate kept slowing down, so that the real estate industry policy will stay with the principle of "stability" and focus on avoiding financial risks. This paper takes the Y real estate project of G group as a case. Based on the market policy and financing environment, we find out that the financial risk management is not qualified enough to do financial risk control. The financial risk is mainly reflected in two aspects: for one thing, since the selling price can't meet the expectation, most of the financial ratios cannot be achieved and it may lead to investment risk; for another, the poor status of project sales collection brings capital problems，and then the principal and interest of debts cannot be paid in time. Therefore, the risk of capital recovery and fund-raising will arise. In this case, it may cause the failure of project and financial crisis. Originally, only financial indicators were calculated. Now we introduce dynamic break-even point analysis method to calculate selling price under different circumstances. After the project started, the sales situation was not up to standard, so the cash flow and the internal rate of return should be monitored periodically. In addition, we need to dynamically monitor the funds needed to repay loans. Finally, based on the improvement suggestions, we put forward some suggestions on the overall risk management. This method is used to analyze the risk factors and quantify the loss. In order to make great efforts to achieve the goal, finance staff should give early warning to the risk in time and work in coordination with relevant staff to take positive measures.
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