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论文编号：	12137
作者编号：	2320180519
上传时间：	2020/12/13 21:06:07
中文题目：	NH“煤改气”PPP项目物有所值（VFM）定量评价研究
英文题目：	Research on Quantitative Evaluation of Value For Money from Project of Changing Coal to Natural Gas in NH District
指导老师：	郝臣
中文关键字：	PPP；物有所值；定量评价；折现率
英文关键字：	PPP; Value For Money; Quantitative evaluation; Discount rate
中文摘要：	为了缓解地方政府债务问题，积极推进基础设施建设，国家大力鼓励和支持采用PPP模式。PPP模式在我国先后经历了探索、试点、推广发展、调整、新一轮推广等阶段的发展，目前正在向规范化发展。同时，未来结合地方政府专项债和“新基建”政策，PPP仍有很大的发展空间。物有所值评价作为PPP项目一个重要的评价机制，也在逐步完善，以跟上PPP模式规范化发展的步伐，同时为社会资本方、政府提供科学的决策依据。目前，无论是政策保障措施还是PPP项目微观操作层面都存在一定的完善空间。 基于上述背景，论文首先对相关的PPP模式、物有所值评价等相关概念的进行了概述，对国内外相关研究进行了梳理。然后基于NH“煤改气”PPP项目这个实证案例，总结出了物有所值定量价存在的问题包括：PSC值测算参照项目设定、折现率确定、未考虑项目全生命周期的经济趋势及特定风险支出难以衡量等问题。后又针对每一个问题，参考国外发展经验提出了改进建议，改进建议主要包括针对社会资本方和咨询公司的实操层面和针对主管部门的政策保障层面。其中，微观实操层面主要改进了折现率的确定问题，通过引入资本资产定价模型，根据传统模式下和PPP模式下风险分担的不同，求出两种模式下相应的折现率，根据相应折现率求出PSC值和PPP值。在配套保障措施层面提出了发改委、财政部等主管部门未来需要考虑的政策建议，包括完善法律法规、加强数据收集与处理和建立事中评价机制等。 通过本文的案例分析和研究，完善政策保障措施可以更加凸显物有所值的重要性，完善操作流程。同时，基于资本资产定价模型得出的折现率，结合PSC值和PPP值不同风险的参数，比较科学的体现整个市场的系统性风险，为企业、政府测算、确定折现率提供更准确的数据。同时，可以为社会资本方提供参考案例，提升企业投资PPP项目决策的准确性。展望未来物有所值评价的规范化将会更加深化，将能更科学的为利益相关者提供决策依据。
英文摘要：	In order to alleviate the debt problem of local governments and actively promote infrastructure construction, the state strongly encourages and supports the adoption of PPP mode. PPP mode has experienced the stages of exploration, pilot, promotion and development, adjustment and a new round of promotion in China, and is now developing to standardization. At the same time, there is still a lot of room for PPP development in the future in combination with the local government's special debt and the "new infrastructure" policy. As an important evaluation mechanism of PPP projects, value for money evaluation is also gradually improved to keep up with the pace of standardized development of PPP mode, and provide scientific decision-making basis for social capital and government. At present, there is a certain room for improvement in both policy guarantee measures and micro operation level of PPP projects. Based on the above background, this paper first summarizes the relevant concepts such as PPP mode and Value For Money evaluation, and sorts out the relevant research at home and abroad. Based on empirical case:NH “Coal to Natural Gas” PPP project, this paper analyzes the problems of value for money quantitative price, including: PSC value calculation reference project setting, discount rate determination, not considering the economic trend of the whole life cycle of the project and the difficulty to measure specific risk expenditure. Then, according to each problem and referring to foreign development experience, the paper puts forward improvement suggestions, mainly including the practical level of PPP consulting company and the policy guarantee level of relevant ministries and commissions，the improvement suggestions mainly include the practical level for social capital and consulting companies and the policy guarantee level for the competent departments. Among them, the micro level mainly improves how to determine the discount rate. By introducing the CAPM, according to the different risk sharing between the traditional mode and PPP mode, the corresponding discount rate under the two modes is calculated, and the PSC value and PPP value are calculated according to the corresponding discount rate.At the level of macro safeguard measures, this paper gives some policy suggestions that the NDRC, the Ministry of Finance and other departments need to consider in the future, including improving laws and regulations, strengthening data collection and processing, and establishing in-process evaluation mechanism. Through the case analysis and research of this paper, the improvement of policy guarantee measures can highlight the importance of value for money and improve the operation process，it provides more accurate data for enterprises and governments to calculate and determine the discount rate. At the same time, the discount rate based on capital asset pricing model, combined with different risk parameters of PSC value and PPP value, can reflect the systematic risk of the whole market more scientifically, and provide more accurate data for calculating and determining the discount rate. Finally, looking forward to the future, the standardization of value for money evaluation will be further deepened, which will provide decision-making basis for stakeholders more scientifically.
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