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论文编号：	12053
作者编号：	2320180342
上传时间：	2020/12/11 10:28:29
中文题目：	天津市Y区政府融资平台债务成因与风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on debt Causes and Risk Management of Government Financing Platform in Y District of Tianjin
指导老师：	马连福
中文关键字：	地方政府融资平台；政府隐性债务；债务风险；风险管理
英文关键字：	Local government financing platform,Implicit government debt, Debt risk, Risk management
中文摘要：	2020 年，全球范围内爆发新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情，受此影响各国金融市场震荡剧烈，经济呈现出负增长态势，主要经济体均承受不同程度的危机影响，未来各地区经济走势尚存极大不确定性风险。受此影响必将带来流动性风险隐患，进而引发存量债务偿付压力。我国当前作为全球经济引擎，为缓解疫情带来的下行压力，在宏观政策调节的力度上显著加大。在着力防控疫情的同时，近期的经济表现平稳回升，长期来看仍保持中高速发展的大趋势尚未改变。 同时，我国深化对外开放、与各国建立合作发展的决心，尽管受客观环境的重大影响依然没有改变。金融领域扩大境外投资开放正在付诸行动，外商投资环境不断提升优化，自贸试验区持续扩容，开创性的进口博览会到规模盛大的国际服务贸易会，都将为经济高质量发展提供重要动力。国内资产对外资吸引力逐步增强，境外资本投入规模持续增长，国际投资者对我国资产配置规模逐步增加。随着国内经济已从高速增长阶段，转向中高速、高质量发展的阶段，产业结构的逐步优化，高新技术行业的蓬勃发展，未来将在世界范围内吸引更多的个人和机构投资中国，更好的为增进我国建设的广大参与者提升财富价值。 今年，也是我国全面建成小康社会收官之年，更是未来五年规划蓄力待发之年。在当前国际经济和政治环境风云变幻的时刻，仍须保持定力，坚持以经济发展为中心。针对此次疫情，中央出台的一揽子经济刺激政策，从短期来看，有效的缓解了疫情对经济带来的冲击，提振了经济复苏的信心和决心。从中长期看，我国对外开放水平不断提高，“一带一路”经济合作发展战略深入推进，使得我国不再仅依靠高杠杆模式过度进行基础设施建设投入，而是更加注重发展质量、技术提升、产业升级，凭借科学系统的方式、周密完善的部署、行之到位的落实有效地促进经济稳步恢复，体现出以人为本的经济发展理念。 我国在本轮经济调控中，作为区域经济发展动力引擎的地方政府融资平台将重新起到关键性作用。其中城市基础设施建设作为优化城市结构、提升公共服务、改善营商环境、实现区域经济发展的重要源动力，对于吸引社会资本投入、增加地区税收收入、扩大城市吸引力的等方面起到积极推进作用。而地方政府融资平台作为基础实施建设的主要载体，凭借其专业化的建设投入、规范的施工方案、稳定的保障措施，将极大推进基础设施建设的覆盖面，从根本上提升区域民众幸福感，满足工商企业发展的配套需要。但基于当前经济环境及未来发展规划，从平台的发展模式、项目遴选、规划运营、资本投入等多方面将极大区别于2008年金融危机之后的重资产类基础设施投入，必将以经济高效、环境友好、智能智慧的新型发展投入为主基调，不断优化城市基础设施建设，以满足社会各界群众和工商企业单位对新型城市服务的迫切需要。 地方政府融资平台为区域建设发挥重要作用的同时，也在其逐步发展扩张中暴露出极大的风险隐患。近年来，各部委对平台公司监管政策频出，地方政府融资平台融资环境趋紧。2018年以来，基础设施领域补短板力度不断增强、保障地方融资平台合理融资需求等相关条例出台，致使平台公司融资境况一定程度上有所改善。2020年初，我国出现新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情，受此影响，地方融资平台可能出现短期的业绩震荡，但在整体环境逆周期调节中，仍作为社会稳定经济发力的驱动力。同时既要保障地区经济增速维持在合理发展区间，更要做好、做扎实对地方政府融资平台债务和政府隐性债务的风险管控问题，谨防系统性风险的爆发。据此，地方融资平台公司未来发展资质分化仍将持续，部分平台公司将面临优化转型阵痛和债务集中兑付的双重压力。 本文基于相关理论的整理分析，提出针对地方政府融资平台债务风险应对策略。文章具体研究脉络为：第一部分主要介绍本文研究背景、意义及研究目的，通过阐述相关研究方法及内容，结合相关文献对地方政府融资平台债务风险进行分析梳理。第二部分对文中主要关键概念进行界定，并就研究地方融资平台债务风险涉及相关理论作出释义。第三部分以实证为例，基于分析对象所处的外部经济环境及行业状况进行概括阐述，通过地方政府举债行为分析，重点揭示了地方政府及平台债务的主要成因。第四部分辨识区域融资平台债务风险，剖析平台自身财务质量及各举债环节债务问题。第五部分由点及面提出债务问题的应对策略，完善地方政府融资平台风险管理体系。 地方政府债务问题始终是悬而未决的重要地方经济问题，由于对地方政府性债务缺乏科学管控机制，在融资杠杆高、隐性负债繁重等问题逐步得到合理解决前，流动资金紧张甚至债务违约的现象将会频发。特别是地方政府融资平台形成的隐性债务问题，由于缺乏信息透明度，一直成为化解地方债务工作的难点和重点攻克项目。因此，充分认识分析地方融资平台当前的债务风险成因和现实状况，对于理性应对风险、缓解债务压力具有重要的现实意义。
英文摘要：	In 2020, there will be an outbreak of COVID-19 around the world. As a result, the financial markets of all countries will be shaken violently and the economy will show negative growth. Major economies will be affected by the crisis to varying degrees. Affected by this will inevitably bring liquidity risk hidden trouble, and then lead to the stock of debt repayment pressure. As an engine of the global economy, China has made significant efforts in macroeconomic policy adjustment to alleviate the downward pressure brought about by the epidemic. While focusing on the prevention and control of the epidemic, the recent economic performance has picked up steadily, and in the long run, the general trend of medium-high growth remains unchanged. At the same time, China's determination to deepen opening-up and build cooperation and development with other countries remains unchanged despite the significant impact of the objective environment. Actions are being taken to further open up the financial sector to overseas investment. The environment for foreign investment is being improved and improved, pilot free trade zones are being expanded, and the pioneering import expo and the grand international Service trade Fair will all provide important impetus for high-quality economic development. Domestic assets have become more attractive to foreign capital, the scale of overseas capital investment has continued to grow, and the scale of asset allocation by international investors has gradually increased. With the gradual optimization of the industrial structure and the vigorous development of the high-tech industry, the domestic economy has shifted from the stage of high-speed growth to the stage of medium-high speed and high-quality development. In the future, it will attract more individuals and institutions around the world to invest in China, so as to better enhance the wealth value of the majority of participants in the construction of our country. This year will also be the final year for China to complete the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. At a time when the international economic and political environment is changing rapidly, we must remain calm and focus on economic development. In the short term, the economic stimulus package adopted by the central government has effectively eased the impact of the epidemic on the economy and boosted the confidence and determination of economic recovery. From the long term, in constantly improve the level of opening to the outside world, "One Belt And One Road" and thorough going efforts to promote economic cooperation and development strategy, make our country not only rely on excessive high leverage mode for infrastructure spending, but pay more attention to the development of quality, technology promotion, industrial upgrading, relying on scientific and systematic way of line, careful deployment, in place of the implementation of the effectively promote steady economic recovery, embody the people-oriented concept of economic development. In this round of economic regulation, local government financing platform, as the driving engine of regional economic development, will play a key role again. As an important driving force for optimizing urban structure, enhancing public services, improving business environment and realizing regional economic development, urban infrastructure construction plays an active role in attracting social capital investment, increasing regional tax revenue and expanding urban attraction. As the main carrier of infrastructure construction, local government financing platform will greatly promote the coverage of infrastructure construction with its professional construction input, standardized construction plan and stable guarantee measures, fundamentally improve the well-being of the regional people and meet the supporting needs of industrial and commercial enterprise development. But based on the current economic environment and the future development planning, from the platform development model, project selection, planning, operation, capital investment and other aspects will be greatly different from the financial crisis in 2008 after heavy asset class infrastructure investment, will certainly to economic efficiency, environmental friendly, intelligent wisdom into new development gives priority to tone, constantly optimize the urban infrastructure construction, to meet people from all walks of life and industrial and commercial enterprises to the urgent needs of the new urban services. While local government financing platform plays an important role in regional construction, it also exposes great risks and hidden dangers in its gradual development and expansion. In recent years, various ministries and commissions have issued frequent regulatory policies on platform companies, and the financing environment of local government financing platforms has become increasingly tight. Since 2018, relevant regulations have been introduced in the field of infrastructure to strengthen areas of weakness and ensure the reasonable financing needs of local financing platforms, which have improved the financing situation of platform companies to some extent. At the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 epidemic occurred in China. Affected by this, local financing platforms may have a short-term performance shock, but in the overall environmental counter-cyclical adjustment, they still serve as the driving force for social stability and economic development. At the same time, we need to ensure that regional economic growth remains within an appropriate range. More importantly, we need to do a good job in managing the risks of local government financing vehicle debt and hidden government debt, and guard against the outbreak of systemic risks. Accordingly, the differentiation of local financing platform companies' development qualifications will continue in the future, and some platform companies will face the double pressure of optimization transformation pain and centralized payment of debts. Based on the collation and analysis of relevant theories, this thesis puts forward strategies to deal with the debt risks of local government financing platforms. The specific research context of this thesis is as follows: The first part mainly introduces the research background, significance and research purpose of this thesis, and analyzes the debt risks of local government financing platforms by elaborating relevant research methods and contents and combining with relevant literature. The second part defines the main key concepts in the thesis, and explains the theories involved in studying the debt risks of local financing platforms. The third part takes the empirical study as an example, makes a general explanation based on the external economic environment and industry situation of the object of analysis, and reveals the main causes of local government and platform debt through the analysis of local government debt behavior. The fourth part identifies the debt risks of regional financing platform, analyzes the financial quality of the platform and the debt problems of each link of debt. The fifth part puts forward the coping strategies of debt problems from point to point and improves the risk management system of local government financing platform. The issue of local government debt has always been an important outstanding local economic issue. Due to the lack of scientific control mechanism for local government debt, the phenomenon of tight working capital and even debt default will occur frequently until the problems such as high financing leverage and heavy hidden debt are solved reasonably gradually. In particular, the implicit debt of local government financing platforms has always been a difficult and key project to resolve local debt due to the lack of information transparency. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to rationally deal with risks and alleviate debt pressure for local financing platforms to fully understand and analyze the causes and current situation of debt risks of local financing platforms.
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