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论文编号：	11954
作者编号：	1120140798
上传时间：	2020/9/25 13:19:59
中文题目：	我国航天产业技术创新溢出效应研究
英文题目：	Research on the Spillover Effect of Technology Innovation in China’s Aerospace Industry
指导老师：	于斌教授
中文关键字：	航天产业；技术创新；溢出效应；创新能力；供应商
英文关键字：	Aerospace industry；Technology innovation；Spillover effect；Innovation ability；Supplier
中文摘要：	航天产业是高技术战略性产业，也是国家战略安全基石，它是众多尖端技术的集中体现。我国航天产业经过60余年的发展，取得了“两弹一星”工程、载人航天工程、月球探测工程和北斗导航工程等辉煌成就，年火箭发射数已连续多年跃居世界第一位，产业规模持续扩大，确立了航天强国发展目标。航天产业一系列技术创新成就对国民经济其它产业究竟是否存在溢出效应，是否牵引拉动了其它产业发展，这是本文选题的初衷和研究目的。本文基于前人研究的成果，结合我国航天产业发展的历史和现状，对航天产业技术溢出效应进行理论分析、对技术创新溢出能力和溢出效应、溢出的实证情况及相应的案例进行研究讨论。 在理论层面，系统建立了我国航天产业技术创新溢出的理论框架。通过分析航天产业的内涵与六大特征，提出了航天产业技术创新内涵、价值和模式，形成了航天产业技术创新溢出的内涵和五个特征；阐述了航天产业技术创新溢出的表现形式，分析了溢出原因，认为航天产业技术创新溢出的作用机理主要有国家战略引导、企业发展竞择和市场需求驱动三种作用力量，航天产业技术创新溢出效应有七个方面，进而从国家、社会、企业三个层面分析，提出存在国家决策力度、资金投入强度、国家安全敏感度、工程实施复杂度、军民融合深度、产业发展热度、协同配合程度、技术创新难度和人才使用效度等九大影响因素。对于航天强国目标下，加快航天产业技术创新，牵引辐射其它产业发展，实施创新驱动发展战略和军民融合发展战略提供了理论上的创新研究。 在实证层面，从宏观层面建立了我国航天产业技术创新能力评价体系，构建了我国航天产业技术创新溢出效应产业间关联性的投入产出分析框架。在回顾总结我国航天产业发展历程和现状的基础上，结合面板数据，通过计量统计和前沿分析评价工具的非参数方法中数据包络分析法（DEA）对比分析，得出航天产业投入、产出和技术创新效率与其它高技术产业之间存在显著差异。利用相关数据，通过实证分析，得出航天产业与高技术产业间的前向关联性更强；而后向关联性则是与传统工业部门间更强；与其它高技术产业相比，航天产业对高技术产业的带动作用和依赖程度都比较低；与传统工业部门间的后向关联指数高于平均值且排在第一位，航天产业对传统工业部门的发展有很强的带动作用。针对航天产业，系统分析评价技术创新能力和产业间溢出效应关联性，丰富了我国军工高技术产业技术创新溢出领域的研究。 其次，从微观层面建立了我国航天产业的技术创新溢出对供应商溢出效应的研究框架。基于本文理论分析的主要观点，溢出存在的两种形式，针对提升效应，选取协同配合度这个影响因素，从航天产业上游供应商的角度，提出了四条研究假设来探究我国航天产业技术创新对供应商溢出效应的存在性以及我国航天产业技术创新对供应商溢出效应的影响因素，并据此构建了四个回归模型进行对应的验证。通过问卷调查、描述分析、模型估计、检验验证，证实了四条研究假设的成立，即航天产业后向技术溢出对供应商创新绩效有正向影响，协同配合的调节作用也存在，直接溢出和间接溢出以及硬协同和软协同的调节作用对于不同企业存在差异。从航天产业供应商微观角度定量研究技术创新溢出效应是本文的一个独到之处。 最后，以实际案例研究证实了航天产业技术创新溢出效应理论分析。以航天用某电子元器件技术创新的国产化过程为例，分析我国电子元器件产业现状及航天产业电子元器件的应用情况，详细描述了国产化电子元器件技术创新过程，证实了本文关于航天产业技术创新溢出理论的分析，即关于溢出的表现形式、作用机理、原因分析、溢出效应和影响因素的存在。通过现实案例研究证实了航天产业技术创新溢出理论是本文的又一创新。对后续实现航天强国，加快关键元器件、原材料、设备、软件等完全自主可控，指导航天产业与其它产业间军民深度融合、协同创新具有重要意义。 本文将理论研究和实证研究方法相结合，采用文献研究、比较分析、计量分析和案例研究等方法，从宏观和微观两个角度，对航天产业技术创新溢出的理论、我国航天产业技术创新能力、对供应商的溢出效应和案例等方面进行研究，形成了结论，提出了政策建议。受制于一些客观条件，本文在航天产业对区域经济溢出效应以及多个影响因素测度方面未及深入，需要在后续研究中加以改进。
英文摘要：	As a fundamental part to China’s national security,the aerospace sector is a high-tech industry of strategic importance;it is also a representation of various cutting-edge technologies.After more than 60 years of sustained effort,China’s aerospace sector has accomplished remarkable achievements like the project of “Two Bombs and one Satellite”,human spaceflight,lunar exploration mission and the Beidou Navigation Satellite System.With world-leading numbers of annual rocket launch and burgeoning sector scale,the goal of raising global competitiveness through a strong space sector is established.The current research aims to study the effect of technological innovation spillover brought by a series of investment in research and development(R&D) in China’s aerospace sector and whether this spillover is impacting the development of other sectors.Based on a comprehensive review of previous studies and a through investigation of the past and current circumstances of China’s aerospace sector,the current dissertation discusses spillover in both theoretical level and empirical level through concrete case studies. Taking a theoretical approach, the dissertation is the first attempt to establish a systematic framework to study technology spillover in China’s aerospace sector. Through an in-depth analysis of six essential characteristics of the aerospace sector,the dissertation discusses the value and patterns of technology innovation in the aerospace sector.After examining the manifestation of spillover and the reasons behind it,this dissertation concludes that the driving forces behind technology spillover in the aerospace sector are mainly guidance from national strategy,competition among corporates and market demands.Also,the dissertation identifies nine influential factors for the spillover effect,including government dicisions,monetary investments,national security sensitivity,project complexity,extent of Civil-Military integration,vitality of industry,extent of collaboration,difficulty of technical innovation and the effectiveness of the deployment of human resources.For aerospace strength goal,theoretical innovation research is provided in speeding up technological innovation in the aerospace sector, traction and radiation other industries, and implement innovation-driven development strategy and Civil-Military integration development strategy. In an empirical approach,firstly,at the macro level,the evaluation system of technological innovation capacity of China’s aerospace sector is established.This dissertation constructs the analysis framework of the connections between innovation capacity of the aerospace sector and the sectors affected by the spillover.After applying quantitative analytical tools and non-parametric approaches like data envelopment analysis(DEA) on panel data collected overtime,the dissertation finds that there’s a significant difference between the input-output and innovation efficiency of the aerospace sector and that of other high-tech sectors.Also,a forward linkage exists between the aerospace sector and other high-tech sectors.However,such forward linkage is weak,suggesting that the aerospace sector has low dependency and low driving force with regard to high-tech sectors.A strong backward linkage exists between the aerospace sector and traditional industrial sectors,suggesting that the aerospace sector has a strong impact in encouraging developments in traditional industrial sectors.For the aerospace sectors, the relationship between technological innovation ability and inter-industry spillover effect is systematically analyzed and evaluated, it enriches the research on the spillover field of technological innovation in high-tech industry of military sectors in China. Secondly, at the micro level,this dissertation empirically discusses the effect of technological innovation spillover in the aerospace sector on the innovation performance index of its upstream suppliers. Based on the main point of view of the theoretical analysis of this dissertation,the two forms of spillover existence,lifting effect and the degree of cooperative matching are selected.From the point of view of upstream suppliers of the aerospace sector,this dissertation puts forward four research hypotheses to explore the existence of supplier spillover effect of technology innovation in China’s aerospace sector and the influencing factor,and four regression models are constructed to verify the effect of supplier spillover effect.After performing regression analysis,through questionnaire investigation, description analysis,model estimation and test verification,it is confirmed that four research hypotheses are established,that is,the dissertation discovers that backward technological innovation spillover of the aerospace sector is positively associated with the innovation performance index of its upstream supplier;collaboration between sectors has a moderating effect;for different corporates,the moderating effect of direct spillover,indirect spillover,direct collaboration,indirect collaboration also varies.It is one of the unique aspects of this dissertation to quantitatively study the spillover effect of technological innovation from the micro point of view of the aerospace sector supplier. Last,the dissertation details the impact of technology spillover in the aerospace sector in the context of concrete case studies.One example is the localization process of electronic components.Through in-depth analysis of the electronic components industry,the dissertation is able to quantify the main spillocer parameters,identify the key drivers of spillovers and the impact of spillovers.Review of such case studies in great details is another merit of the dissertation.It is essential to realizing the long-term goal of raising global competitiveness through a strong space sector,and to accelerating the complete localization of key components,raw materials,equipments and softwares.It is also provides guidance to the deepening Civil-Military integration and collaborative innovation. In this dissertation,theoretical and empirical approaches are combined,and literature research, comparative analysis, econometric points and case analysis are adopted, from the marco and mirco levels,the theory of technology innovation of the aerospace sector,the ability of technology innovation of China’s aerospace sector,the spillover effect of suppliers and the analysis of case are studied,the conclusion is formed,and the policy recommendations are put forward.Limited by practical circumstances,the dissertation fails to give an in-depth analysis on the regional economic spillover effect and its key drivers.Such limitation will be resolved in further research.
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