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论文编号：	11913
作者编号：	2220160421
上传时间：	2020/8/7 19:48:50
中文题目：	TS公司智能工厂项目的风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of the Intelligent Factory Project of TS company
指导老师：	李季
中文关键字：	智能工厂；自动化；信息化；风险管理
英文关键字：	Intelligent factory; Automation; Informationization; Risk Management
中文摘要：	智能工厂的一个显著特点就是高度的信息化与自动化，智能工厂作为未来制造业和生产企业的主流发展方向，已经被越来越的生产企业广泛应用，尤其是那些具有较高危险性的生产企业，因为在某些操作过程中可以使用机械或者控制元件代替人工。智能工厂的特点就是拥有较高的生产自动化程度以及成套完整的上游管理系统和信息数据交互系统。生产智能化经历了初期的生产自动控制后，现正逐步向复杂管理软件与控制软件结合控制的高级阶段演变。智能工厂满足了生产企业的发展需求，被越来越多的大型产制造业所认可，构建智能工厂也成为了当前新建生产项目的必不可少的选项。工业自动化控制系统拥有提高效率、节能降耗、节省人力成本、减少安全事故，促进产业升级的明显效果。从国内来看，工业自动化控制系统行业有国家法规政策的大力支持，拥有庞大多元化的市场需求，而且我国工业自动化控制水平与欧美发达国家差距仍十分显著，所以其具有更高的创新性和风险性。并且在构建过程中存在着大量不确定性因素，如果没有全面风险管理就容易出现导致出现各种隐患，共有甚者可能会导致项目难以进行或者是日后生产过程中的安全隐患，因此详细的风险管理对于企业实施智能工厂项目具有十分重要的战略意义和现实意义。 本文首先对项目管理及项目风险管理理论、风险及风险管理理论、智能工厂理论进行了相关描述；其次对TS的信息化及自动化发展及实施过程进行了描述，还对TS信息化过程中实施智能工厂的难点和独特性进行了阐述，在此基础上综合应用文献分析法和假设法对该公司实施的智能工厂项目风险进行了定性分析，给出了项目风险清单；随后按照项目实施的前期准备、推进实施、运行维护三个阶段对项目风险进行了分类，综合应用德尔菲法和损失期望矩阵法对不同阶段和方面的风险进行了度量，给出了风险评估分类；最后结合TS公司智能工厂项目的实际情况制定了应对不同风险的具体措施，以便达到降低风险发生概率及风险发生后果，并提高项目可行性和完整性的目的，进而确保项目达到预期。 最后按照上述的研究方法，分析出了需求设计阶段、建设集成阶段、运行维护阶段及全阶段中存在的规划风险、采购风险、合同风险、政策风险、市场风险、集成风险、硬件风险、施工风险、运行风险等18类风险，并且根据风险的发生概率、风险造成的损失等要素将风险分为高概率风险、重大风险、显著风险、不显著风险四类，并根据分类详细描述了风险的应对和监控。最后本文以对TS公司智能工厂项目风险管理分析的结论作为结尾，并对未来智能工厂的发展和智能工厂项目风险管理水平的不断完善和提高作出了展望。
英文摘要：	A significant feature of the new factory is a high degree of informatization and automation. As the mainstream development direction of manufacturing industry and production enterprises in the future, automatic factory has been widely used by more and more production enterprises, especially those with certain risks. After the initial production automation, production automation is gradually evolving into the advanced stage of complex management software and control software. Factory automation has met the development needs of production enterprises, and has been recognized by more and more large-scale manufacturing industries. Building factory automation has also become an indispensable option for new production factory. Industrial automation control system has the obvious effect of improving efficiency, saving energy and consumption, saving labor cost, reducing safety accidents and promoting industrial upgrading.From the domestic perspective, the industrial automation control system industry has the strong support of national laws and regulations and policies, has a large and diversified market demand, and the gap between China's industrial automation control level and the developed countries in Europe and the United States is still very significant, so it has higher innovation and risk.And as there are a lot of uncertainty factors in the process, if there is no comprehensive risk management is likely to lead to a variety of hidden trouble, there are difficult or worse may lead to project is the potential safety hazard in the process of production in the future, so detailed risk management for enterprise to implement factory automation project has important strategic significance and realistic significance. Firstly, this paper describes project management and risk of project management theory, risk and risk management theory, and factory automation theory.Secondly，development of the informationization and automation of TS and implementation process are described, and the difficulties of the implementation of factory automation in the process of TS informatization and uniqueness, on the basis of comprehensive literature analysis and Delphi method was applied to the company on the implementation of factory automation project risk has carried on the qualitative analysis, it gives the project risk list,Then pushed in accordance with the project preparation, implementation, operation maintenance three stages, and project implementation integrated hardware, software configuration and function of three aspects of the project risks are classified and integrated application of Delphi Method and Loss Expectation Method was carried out on different stages and aspects of risk evaluation, gives a sequence of management;Finally, based on the actual situation of TS automation plant project, specific measures to deal with different risks were formulated, so as to reduce the probability of risk occurrence and the consequences of risk occurrence, and improve the feasibility and integrity of the project, so as to ensure the project to achieve the expected. Finally according to the above research method, analysis the demand design stage, construction and integrated stage and operation maintenance phase and whole stage of project, procurement risk, contract risk, policy risk, market risk, integration risk, hardware risk, construction risk, operation risk, and according to the probability of risk and loss caused by risk can be divided into high risk probability, major, significant risk, no significant risk four categories, and according to the classification of risk response and monitoring was described. Finally, this paper concludes with the conclusion of TS company's intelligent factory project risk management analysis, and looks forward to the future development of intelligent plant and the continuous improvement of intelligent factory project risk management level.
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