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论文编号：	11748
作者编号：	2120182941
上传时间：	2020/6/20 12:26:45
中文题目：	经济政策不确定性与企业风险承担
英文题目：	Economic Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Risk Undertaking
指导老师：	刘志远
中文关键字：	经济政策不确定性；投资机会；股权激励；风险承担
英文关键字：	Economic policy uncertainty；Investment Opportunities；Equity incentives； Corporate risk-taking level
中文摘要：	经济政策作为政府宏观调控的有效手段，其推出过程中存在诸多不确定性， 如政策何时实施、如何实施以及实施效果如何等。企业作为市场经济的重要参与 者，其经营决策的制定通常会受到外部宏观政策的影响。新政推出过程中的不确 定性加剧了企业外部经营环境的波动，为应对外部环境的波动企业通常会对自 身经营决策进行调整，以求最大程度规避经济政策不确定性对企业造成的不利 影响。 风险承担作为企业投资决策中的重要环节，其同样会受经济政策不确定性 的影响，好的不确定性将为企业带来发展机遇，有利于企业实现对外投资，而坏 的不确定性则会加剧项目投资失败的可能，蕴含着巨大的风险。本文以2012-2016 年我国 A 股非金融上市公司为研究对象，实证检验了经济政策不确定性对企业 风险承担水平的影响效果，并探究了投资机会、股权激励在经济政策不确定性与 企业风险承担之间的调节作用。 研究发现：（1）经济政策不确定性与企业风险承担水平之间存在显著的正相 关关系，即“机遇预期效应”发挥了主导作用。（2）经济政策不确定性对企业风 险承担水平的正效应在高投资机会企业中更为显著。（3）股权激励强度会正向调 节经济政策不确定性对企业风险承担水平的正向效应。由上述结论得到的启示 包括：（1）为经济政策的制定者与执行者，国家和政府应尽量保证新政能够得到 持续且稳定地运行。（ 2）企业应认识到经济政策不确定性既蕴含着风险同时也隐 藏着潜在投资机遇，企业需不断提升自身投资水平，以便能够及时准确地把握投 资机会。（ 3）风险承担代理问题在企业中普遍存在，企业可以通过股权激励的方 式缓解风险承担代理问题，降低股东与管理层之间的利益冲突。 关键词： 经济政策不确定性；投资机会；股权激励；风险承担
英文摘要：	As an effective means of government macro-control, economic policy has many uncertainties, such as when the policy will be implemented, how to implement it, and how effective it will be. As an important participant in the market economy, companies often make decisions about their business decisions that are influenced by external macro policies. Uncertainty during the implementation of the new economic policy has exacerbated the fluctuations in the external operating environment of the company. In order to cope with the fluctuations in the external environment, companies usually adjust their operating decisions to avoid potential losses. As an important part of an enterprise ’s investment decision-making, risk-taking level is also affected by economic policy uncertainties. Good uncertainty will bring development opportunities to the enterprise, which is beneficial to the enterprise ’s external investment. Bad uncertainty will lead to project investment failur and increase loss expectations. This article takes listed non-financial companies in China as research objects from 2012 to 2016, and empirically examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty on the level of corporate risk-taking. Moreover, this article also explored the moderating effect of investment opportunities and equity incentives. The study found that: (1) There is a significant positive correlation between economic policy uncertainty and enterprise risk-taking level. (2) The positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on the level of enterprise risk-taking level is even more pronounced in high-investment opportunity companies. (3) The intensity of equity incentives will positively regulate the positive effect of economic policy uncertainty on the level of corporate risk-taking. The enlightenment from the above conclusions includes: (1) As the makers and executors of economic policies, the state and the government should try to ensure that the new economic policies can be operated continuously and steadily. (2) Enterprises should realize that economic policy uncertainty contains both risks and investment opportunities, and companies need to continuously improve their investment levels in order to be able to grasp investment opportunities in a timely and accurate manner. (3) The risk-taking agency problem is common in enterprises. Enterprises can mitigate the risk-taking agency problem by implementing equity incentives and reduce the conflict of interest between shareholders and managers. Key words: Economic policy uncertainty；Investment Opportunities；Equity incentives；Corporate risk-taking level
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