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论文编号：	11728
作者编号：	2120182943
上传时间：	2020/6/20 8:50:59
中文题目：	“一带一路” 倡议提高了企业海外投资业绩吗？
英文题目：	Has “the Belt and Road Initiative” Improved Corporates’ Overseas Investment Performance?
指导老师：	姚颐
中文关键字：	“一带一路”倡议;海外投资业绩;海外子公司;双重差分法
英文关键字：	“the Belt and Road initiative”;Overseas investment performance;Overseas subsidiaries;DID
中文摘要：	2013年我国首次提出了“一带一路”倡议，作为深化对外开放、协同地区发展的重大探索，符合国际社会的根本利益，“一带一路”倡议也成为学者研究的热点，但大多集中在宏观投资贸易领域。而本文基于微观企业的视角，将2014年作为政策基年，视“一带一路”倡议的提出为一项准自然实验，利用2010-2018年沪深两市对外直接投资企业的海外子公司数据，采用DID方法，以企业在“一带一路”沿线国家和地区设立的子公司为实验组，在其他国家和地区设立的子公司作为控制组，探究了“一带一路”倡议对企业海外投资业绩的效应及其影响机制，并基于异质性分析的角度，分组检验了股权性质、国际市场进入模式、是否属于“一带一路”新兴优势行业、东道国是否为发达经济体等变量对企业海外投资业绩的影响效果。 根据本文的实证结果：“一带一路”倡议可以有效提升企业在沿线国家的投资业绩，在采用了平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验和PSM-DID等稳健性方法的检验后，这一结论依然成立，作用机制分析表明，“一带一路”倡议主要通过改善双边关系和缓解融资约束两种途径提高企业海外投资业绩，此结果充分肯定了“一带一路”倡议对于微观企业主体的积极影响效应。分组回归结果显示，在非国有企业、以并购方式进入国际市场和属于“一带一路”新兴优势行业的组别中，“一带一路”倡议对企业海外投资业绩的提升效应更显著，这一发现对于异质性企业如何结合自身优势参与“一带一路”建设具有一定的参考价值；考虑东道国经济情况发现，“一带一路”倡议对投资于沿线发展中经济体的国家的企业海外投资业绩提升效果更显著。 本文的研究丰富了对外直接投资和“一带一路”倡议方面的文献，将我国转型背景下的宏观经济政策和微观企业行为结合起来，考察中国本土企业在这一倡议中的表现如何及在异质性特征上的横截面差异，为“一带一路”倡议带来的正面微观经济后果提供了证据支持。拓展了宏观经济战略与微观企业行为研究框架，帮助我们更加深刻地认识经济政策的微观作用机制，更客观科学地评估“一带一路”倡议的实施效果，也有利于深挖“一带一路”倡议的经济内涵，引导企业更加积极主动地参与其中，为今后进一步推动“一带一路”建设提供经验。
英文摘要：	China proposed “the Belt and Road initiative” for the first time in 2013. As a major exploration of opening up to the world and harmonious development of the regional economy, it fits to international community’s fundamental interest. “The Belt and Road initiative” also become a hot topic for scholars, but most focused on the macro field of investment and trade. However, this paper bases on the micro perspective ,regarding 2014 as the base year of policy, and considers the proposal of “the Belt and Road initiative” as a quasi-natural experiment , using the data of overseas subsidiaries belonging to listed companies which invest to foreign countries directly from 2010 to 2018.To apply the DID method, I divide the subsidiaries established in the countries along “the Belt and Road” into the experimental group, and the subsidiaries established in other countries into the control group, exploring the impact of the initiative on the overseas investment performance of enterprises and its mechanism . Besides, this paper also studies the effect of moderator variables by means of subgroup test like different types of equity, models to entry international market, industries, the economy of host countries. The results show that “the Belt and Road initiative” is an effective way to improve the investment performance of companies in countries along the route. After adopting the test of robustness methods such as parallel trend test, placebo test and PSM-DID, the conclusion is still valid. The mechanism analysis shows that the “Belt and Road initiative” mainly improves the overseas investment performance of enterprises by improving bilateral relations and easing financing constraints, which fully affirms the positive impact of “the Belt and Road initiative” on micro-enterprise entities. The subgroup tests show that in the group of non-state-owned enterprises, entering the international market through mergers and acquisitions, the emerging advantageous industry, the “Belt and Road” has a more significant effect on the promotion of corporate overseas investment performance. This finding is helpful for corporates to participate in the construction of “the Belt and Road” with the advantages of their individual characters；considering the economic situation of the host countries, it is found that the promotive effect in developing economies along “the Belt and Road” line is even more significant. Theoretically, the research in this article enriches the literature on foreign direct investment and “the Belt and Road initiative”, which combines macroeconomic policies and micro-enterprise behaviors in the background of China's transition. The performance of China ’s domestic enterprises in this initiative and their cross-sectional differences provide evidence to support the positive microeconomic consequences of “the Belt and Road initiative”. The framework of macroeconomic initiative and micro-enterprise behavior has been expanded, which has certain enlightenment for in-depth understanding of the economic effects of “the Belt and Road initiative” and subsequent reforms, which will help us to understand the micro-action mechanism of economic policies deeply, evaluate the effect of “the Belt and Road initiative” more objectively and scientifically , encourage enterprises to participate more actively, and provide experience for further promoting “the Belt and Road” construction in the future.
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