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论文编号：	11685
作者编号：	2120182904
上传时间：	2020/6/19 17:23:23
中文题目：	基于系统动力学的共享单车保有量研究
英文题目：	Research on Bicycle-sharing Ownership Based on System Dynamics
指导老师：	张建勇
中文关键字：	共享单车保有量；系统动力学；共享单车政策调整
英文关键字：	Bike-sharing ownership; system dynamics; bike-sharing policy adjustments
中文摘要：	自2016年共享单车投入市场以来，短短几个月间迅速蹿红一、二线城市，已成为并行公交巴士、地铁的三大公共出行方式之一，融入人民群众的日常出行。共享单车的出现在很大程度上解决了市民公共出行最后一公里问题，在短途出行以及公共交通接驳出行上发挥了巨大作用。这种新的出行方式的以其方便、快捷、经环保等优势迅速占领市场，共享单车品牌层出不穷，国家和各级政府对共享单车行业的支持和鼓励政策日益加大，共享单车市场持续高速增长。但是由于前期市场监管不力，大量的投放的单车占据道路，对交通环境造成影响，自2017年，各级政府纷纷出台文件，政府和企业共同治理共享单车的局面已经到来。那么在这种环境政策下，共享单车未来的保有量走势如何？影响共享单车需求的重要因素以及影响程度如何？政府如何管控、企业如何生产能得到更好的效果？这些都是本文章希望弄清的问题。 首先本文是从文献出发，通过回顾历史研究，从而探究目前有关研究的欠缺在哪里；然后利用系统动力学方法，在理论研究和历史年鉴数据基础上，加上从现实情况出发的一定假设，从需求出发，构建起共享单车保有量模型，通过该模型能够梳理明确共享单车供需之间的因果回路和作用机制，同时可得到各个影响的具体程度；最后，按照能够施行的政策干预手段调整模型中的参数，运用仿真模拟，得到该手段对于关注指标的改善程度，从而对政府和企业提出调整政策建议。 最后，本文发现了前期对共享单车保有量的主要影响是包括人为清理在内的报废率的大小。当共享单车供需逐渐匹配后，需求端带动的增长率开始发挥作用，而在影响需求的几个因素中造成显著影响的是接驳因素、政策因素和需求满足程度；另外政府通过缩短共享单车报废年限或者提高清理速度、限制共享单车投放城市进程来抑制共享单车发展；可通过降低报废率、加快公共交通建设、加快车行道路的建设、加强交通管理来促进共享单车发展；还有从长远看，企业可以生产成本更高、质量更好的单车，更利于降低长期生产和维护成本，对共享单车市场生态也能够起到积极作用。
英文摘要：	Since the bike-sharing was put on the market in 2016, it has quickly become popular in the first and second-tier cities in just a few months. It has become one of the three public travel modes of parallel buses and subways. The emergence of shared bicycles has largely solved the problem of the last mile of public travel for citizens, and has played a huge role in short-distance travel and public transportation connections. This new mode of travel has quickly occupied the market with its advantages such as convenience, speed, environmental protection, and the emergence of shared bicycle brands. The state and governments at all levels have increasingly supported and encouraged the shared bicycle industry, and the shared bicycle market has continued to grow rapidly. However, due to inadequate market supervision in the early stage, a large number of released bicycles occupied the road and affected the transportation environment. Since 2017, governments at all levels have issued documents, and the situation of government and enterprises jointly governing shared bicycles has arrived. So, what is the future trend of bike ownership under this environmental policy? What are the important factors affecting the demand for bike sharing and how much? How does the government control and how can enterprises produce better results? These are the issues that this thesis focuses on. This thesis starts with the literature and clarifies where the current deficiencies and deficiencies are based on a review of historical research. Then it uses a system dynamics method based on previous theoretical research and historical yearbook data, plus real-life based Certain assumptions of the situation, based on the demand, build a shared bicycle ownership model, which can sort out the specific pathways and specific mechanisms between the supply and demand of shared bicycles, and at the same time get the specific degree of each impact; finally, according to the Policy intervention measures adjust the parameters in the model. Through simulation, we can understand the improvement degree of the measures to the indicators of interest, so as to obtain the most effective adjustment policy recommendations. In the end, this thesis clarified that the main effect of the previous period on the share of bicycle ownership was the size of the scrapping rate, including manual cleaning. After the supply and demand of shared bicycles gradually matched, the growth rate driven by demand began to play a role. Among the several factors that affected demand were the connection factors, policy factors and the degree of demand satisfaction; in addition, the government shortened the use of shared bicycles by scrapping them. To limit the development of shared bicycles by increasing the number of years or increasing the speed of cleaning and limiting the process of sharing bicycles into the city; it can promote the development of shared bicycles by reducing the scrap rate, accelerating public transportation, accelerating the construction of roads, and strengthening traffic management; Enterprises can produce bicycles with higher costs and better quality, which is more conducive to reducing long-term production and maintenance costs, and can also play a positive role in the ecology of the shared bicycle market.
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