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论文编号：	11669
作者编号：	2120183004
上传时间：	2020/6/19 16:51:20
中文题目：	新冠疫情与信任行为的实验研究
英文题目：	Experimental Study on COVID-19 Outbreak and Trust Behavior
指导老师：	李建标
中文关键字：	新冠疫情；信任；风险偏好；施信者信念；社会规范
英文关键字：	COVID-19 outbreak; Trust; Risk preference; Belief of trustors; Social norm
中文摘要：	为了应对社会交互中存在的不确定性，人们倾向于在博弈中选择风险占优 策略而非支付占优策略，从而陷入帕累托无效率状态，丧失了一部分社会福利。 信任作为一种长期演化而来的非正式制度安排，能够在长期内以较低的成本有 效降低行为的不确定性，使人们对他人行为形成稳定的预期，从而提高人们投入 经济活动的积极性，是法律法规、政策规章和契约等正式制度的重要补充。然而， 信任体系是建立在正常环境秩序基础之上的，具有稳定性。当重大的外生冲击力 量打破这一正常秩序时，信任体系便可能发生动摇。 2019 年 12 月以来在全球肆虐的新冠疫情是人类近期面临的最大的外部冲 击，严重影响了人们的正常生活秩序，并可能重塑社会关系，对信任体系造成冲 击。目前，已有研究通过理论推断和调查问卷等范式分析了人类历史上发生的传 染病疫情对信任的影响。然而，结论尚未统一。另外，由于缺乏数据等客观因素， 新冠疫情对信任的影响尚未得到广泛关注和检验。因此，本文率先探究了新冠疫 情对信任行为的影响及其影响路径，为疫后信任修复工作提供指导和参考意义。 本文遵循信任博弈的实验范式，以施信者投资额为信任水平的衡量指标，借 助在新冠疫情前后通过线上实验收集到的实验数据，分析了疫情对信任行为造 成的影响，并从偏好、信念、规范三个维度探究了其影响路径。研究发现，经历 了新冠疫情之后，人们的信任水平显著降低，在信任博弈中表现为施信者投资额 的降低。另外，根据多重中介效应的检验结果，新冠疫情除了对信任水平具有直 接的负向影响之外，还可能通过风险偏好、施信者信念和社会规范等中介变量影 响人们的信任水平。其中，疫情通过风险偏好对信任的影响是正向的，而通过施 信者信念和社会规范对信任造成的影响是负向的。 本研究率先探究了新冠疫情对信任的影响，并从偏好、信念和规范三个维度 厘清了其影响路径，丰富了信任的理论体系。此外，本文基于研究结论从加强社 会舆情监管、提升个人可信任水平和营造社会信任文化等角度提出了政策建议， 为疫后信任修复的工作重点提供了指导和参考。
英文摘要：	In order to deal with the uncertainty in social interaction, people tend to choose the risk dominant strategy rather than the payment dominant strategy in the game, thus falling into pareto inefficiency and losing part of social welfare. Trust as a kind of longterm evolution of informal institutional arrangement, in the long term at a relatively low cost to reduce the behavior of the uncertainty, make people's expectations of others to form stable, so as to boost the enthusiasm of the people in economic activities, is the legal regulations, policies, rules and important supplement of formal system such as the contract. However, the trust system is based on the normal environmental order and has stability. When the major exogenous shock forces break this normal order, the trust system may be shaken. The new pandemic that has ravaged the world since December 2019 is the biggest external shock humanity has faced in recent times. It has severely affected the normal order of people's lives, and may reshape social relations and have an impact on the trust system. At present, some researches have analyzed the influence of infectious diseases on trust in human history through theoretical inference and questionnaire. However, the conclusions have not been uniform. In addition, due to the lack of data and other objective factors, the impact of new outbreaks on trust has not been widely concerned and tested. Therefore, this paper takes the lead in focusing on the relationship between the epidemic situation and the trust behavior, and provides guidance and reference for the post-epidemic recovery work. This paper follows the experimental paradigm of trust game, takes the investor's investment as the measurement index of trust level, analyzes the influence of the epidemic on trust by virtue of the experimental data collected through online experiments before and after the new epidemic, and explores the influence mechanism from three dimensions of preference, belief and norm. It is found that after experiencing the new epidemic, people's trust level decreases significantly, which is manifested as the decrease of investment in the trust game. In addition, according to the test results of multiple mediating effects, in addition to having a direct negative impact on trust level, new epidemics may also affect people's trust level through such mediating variables as risk appetite, belief of trustors and social norms. Among them, the epidemic has a positive impact on trust through risk preference, but a negative impact on trust through the belief of trustors and social norms. This study is the first to explore the influence of the new epidemic on trust, and clarify its influence mechanism from three dimensions of preference, belief and norm, and enrich the theoretical system of trust. In addition, based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward policy Suggestions on post-epidemic trust restoration from the perspectives of strengthening the supervision of social public opinion, cultivating trust and creating social trust culture, which provides guidance and reference for the focus of post-epidemic trust restoration.
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