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论文编号：	11658
作者编号：	2320170535
上传时间：	2020/6/19 16:32:48
中文题目：	中海油服公司海外项目风险管理优化策略研究
英文题目：	A Promotion Strategy Research on Overseas Project Risk Management of China Oilfield Service Ltd
指导老师：	华志忠
中文关键字：	海外项目；不确定性；评估和应对；监控；四维度
英文关键字：	Overseas projects；Indeterminacy；Risk assessment and response；Risk monitoring；Four dimensions
中文摘要：	自2014年6月以来，国际原油价格一路下跌，众多油气公司对上游的投资逐步减少，油田服务行业竞争加剧，装备使用率和服务价格均较大程度下降，全球油田服务行业随之陷入“寒冬”。另一方面，国内能源缺口逐步加大，在“一带一路”的倡议下，中国能源企业海外投资规模不断扩大，油田服务公司与其“捆绑”出境，在海外油气勘探开发中扮演了重要的角色。 作为一家业务链完整的油服企业，中海油田服务股份有限公司（下称“中海油服”）的境外业务快速发展，海外“六大战区”（亚太、中东、远东、美洲、欧洲、非洲）初具规模，但其海外项目开展过程充满坎坷：利比亚项目因战争关闭，伊朗项目因经济制裁退出，马来西亚项目因资源供应不足而严重超期，俄罗斯项目因策略问题失利，进而导致人员和巨额财产损失，国际油价大跌后海外项目更是出现大面积亏损，这暴露出了其对海外复杂多变的政治、经济、文化、科技环境和激烈市场竞争的认识、应对不充分等问题，归根结底还是对海外项目风险（不确定性）的认识和应对不足。因此，如何有效的识别风险，制定对策，提高海外项目风险管理能力，对中海油服海外项目的生存和可持续发展至关重要。 本文以中海油服海外项目为研究对象，主要就风险管理的现状进行了深入的调研和研究。以项目风险全周期理论为基础，通过查阅相关文献、问卷、访谈和实践的方式对中海油服海外项目的风险进行了识别，得到了包含2大类、11个子类、46个风险的项目风险清单，全面、系统的反映了其风险来源。并以此为基础，根据海外项目的量级，制定了分级评估的策略，改良了现有的MES评价法，引入了模糊综合评价法，增加了风险评估的准确性；系统的收集和总结了风险应对办法。此外，依据“四维度”（进度、收益、质量和HSE）分级监控的思路，引入了挣值分析等监控方法，完善了监控的对策；并借助现有管理层级，梳理了沟通方式和频次，利用风险沟通共同语言和信息化等手段优化了风险沟通的效果和效率。最后，提出了组织、资源和文化保障措施，提升了海外项目风险管理的针对性和系统性。
英文摘要：	Since June 2014, international crude oil prices have been falling. Many oil and gas companies have gradually reduced their upstream investment. Competition in the oilfield service industry has intensified. As a result, the utilization rate of its equipment and service prices have dropped significantly and the global oilfield service industry has fallen into a "cold winter". On the other hand, the domestic energy gap has gradually increased. Under the "One Belt and One Road" initiative, the scale of overseas investment by Chinese energy companies has continued to expand, and oilfield service companies have "bundled" them out of the country, playing an important role in overseas oil and gas exploration and development. As an oil service company with a complete business chain, China Overseas Oilfield Services Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "COSL") has developed its overseas business rapidly in recent years. The overseas "six major zones" (Asia-Pacific, Middle East, Far East, America, Europe, Africa) has begun to gain scale. However, its overseas projects are full of frustration. The Libyan project was shut down by the war, the Iranian project was withdrawn due to economic sanctions, the Malaysian project fell behind the schedule seriously lacking of resources, and the Russian project failed due to strategic problems, leading to loss of personnel and huge property. Overseas projects suffered large losses after international oil prices plummeted, which have exposed their problems in understanding and dealing with the complex and changing international political, economic, cultural, technological environment and fierce market competition. Ultimately, they are still lack of risk(uncertainty) identification, assessment and response. Therefore, how to identify risks, develop countermeasures, and improve the risk management capabilities on projects effectively is crucial to the survival and sustainable development of COSL overseas projects. This article takes COSL's overseas projects as the research object, and conducts deeply investigation and research on the current status of risk management. Based on the full-cycle project risk management theory, the COSL overseas project’s risks were identified by searching relevant literature, questionnaires, interviews, and practices in PT.COSL.INDO, and a project risk list containing 2 categories, 11 sub-categories, and 46 risks was obtained, comprehensive and systematic reflection the sources of the COSL overseas risks. Then, a grading evaluation strategy was developed, the existing MES evaluation method was improved based on the magnitude of overseas projects, the fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method was introduced, and the accuracy of risk assessment was increased. The risk response measure was summarized systematically. In addition, according to the “four-dimensional” (progress, revenue, quality, and HSE) hierarchical monitoring concept, risk monitoring methods such as Earned Value Analysis were introduced to improve the project monitoring efficiency. Considering the current management level, the communication methods and frequencies have been sorted out, and the effectiveness and efficiency of risk communication have been optimized by using the common language and information technology of risk communication. Finally, organizational, resource, and cultural safeguards are proposed to improve the pertinence and systematization of overseas project risk management.
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