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论文编号：	1132
作者编号：	2220070599
上传时间：	2009/6/9 13:58:07
中文题目：	中国制造类上市公司财务危机预警
英文题目：	A Study on Financial Distress
指导老师：	陈国欣
中文关键字：	财务预警;制造类;Logistic模型
英文关键字：	Financial Distress Prediction;
中文摘要：	在竞争激烈的市场经济条件下，由于各方面的原因，财务风险是不可避免的，甚至一些规模很大的上市公司也存在着财务风险。由于上市公司的财务状况关系到方方面面的利益，如何准确度量财务风险并对之加以防范已成为上市公司、银行、投资者以及政府监管部门日益关注的焦点。 本文首先梳理了国内外财务危机预警理论，研究方法及研究成果。其次，根据样本和指标选取标准，选取了2006年和2007年被ST的制造类上市公司以及配对样本共124家公司作为样本公司，并选取了样本公司危机前四年间35项财务指标作为样本数据。然后对初选的35个财务指标进行了Mann-Whitney U显著性检验，筛选出在两类样本中有显著差异的指标，并在此基础上对经过筛选的指标进行主成分分析，将得到的主因子作为Logistic模型的自变量，并得出制造类上市公司财务危机预警模型。本文经过实证研究表明，在危机爆发的前1-4年，该模型的判别正确率分别为90%，79%，81%，78%。最后本文提出了研究中可能存在的一些不足，并对今后的研究方向做了展望。
英文摘要：	Under the market economy condition with intense competition，as a result of various reasons，the financial risk is inevitable.Even some seale listed companies also face the problem of financial risk.Because the financial situation of listed companies relates the benefits of all aspects，how to measure the financial risk accurately，and provide against it has become the focal point of some aspects such as: the bank,the investor as well as the govemment supervisory department. First, the paper conducts the financial distress prediction of domestic and foreign study, including study theories, methods, and results.Next, according to the sample and financial indicator selection standard, we select 124 crisis companies and healthy companies during 2006 to 2007 in chinese manufacture listed companies as study samples, and select 35 financial indicators of sample companies in four financial periods before crisis.Then, we put all 35 financial indicators to further test. Through Mann-Whitney U test and principal components analysis, we get 5 components as independent variables for logistic model and get financial distress prediction model for chinese manufacture listed company lastly.The study indicated that this prediction model can reach 90%,79%,81% and 78% accuracy during 1-4 years before crisis.In the end of the paper, we propose some factors which may influence the findings, and makes a forecast to following study.
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