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论文编号：	11032
作者编号：	2220150371
上传时间：	2019/6/18 14:08:45
中文题目：	天津渤化发展MTO项目风险管理研究
英文题目：	Research on Risk Management of MTO in the Tianjin Bohai Chemical Development Co.，LTD
指导老师：	林润辉
中文关键字：	项目风险管理；风险识别；风险应对；MTO
英文关键字：	Project risk management; Risk identification; Risk response; MTO
中文摘要：	天津大沽化工股份有限公司隶属于渤海化工集团，随着经济的发展，城市规模的不断扩大，天津大沽化工股份有限公司已经逐渐被滨海新区核心区包围，面临“城围化工”的窘境，整体搬迁已经迫在眉睫，且大化也需要通过搬迁改造实现老区结构调整和产业升级，进而保持企业的长期可持续发展。按照集团公司部署，“两化”搬迁成立天津渤化发展公司，公司以氯碱一体化、石油化工为主线打造全产业链化工企业，渤化发展计划投资294亿元，建设11套化工装置。MTO(甲醇制烯烃)项目是石油化工产业的核心，项目主要产品是乙烯和丙烯，能满足其他项目的原料需求。该项目分两期建设，一二期均为180万吨/年。因此开展MTO项目的风险管理研究，能够有效的识别和评估渤化发展MTO项目所面临的各种风险，采取相对应的措施进行风险的管理和控制，保证项目的顺利完成。 本文首先介绍风险、风险管理、项目管理及项目风险管理概念，风险的分类与特征，项目风险管理特征及国内外风险管理发展现状，从项目风险基础理论研究出发，探讨本项目风险管理。介绍渤化发展概况和MTO项目概况，最后运用WBS-RBS和徳尔菲专家调查法进行项目整体风险识别，最后根据风险识别和评估结果提出风险应对措施。 本文创新点在于围绕渤化发展MTO项目的风险管理理论研究，创新性运用WBS-RBS和徳尔菲专家调查法对石油化工项目进行风险普查并对风险进行等级划分，然后进行分析评估，客观筛选出项目存在的主要风险，提出风险应对措施，以便于更好的应对风险，提高项目风险管理水平，消除或者降低项目风险。
英文摘要：	Tianjin Dagu Chemical Co.,LTD affiliated to the Bohai Chemical Group, with the development of economy, the continuous expansion of city, Tianjin Dagu Chemical Co.,LTD has gradually surrounded by the Binhai New Area, facing the plight of chemical industry city, the overall relocation is imminent, flow and also need to be achieved by transferring old structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, and maintain the long-term sustainable development of the enterprise. According to the arrangement of the group company, Bohua Development Co., LTD will be relocated to establish Tianjin Bohua Development Co.,LTD. The company will build a whole industrial chain chemical enterprise with the integration of chlor-alkali and petrochemical as the main line. Bohua Development plans to invest 29.4 billion yuan to build 11 sets of chemical device. MTO（methanol makes olefins） project is the core of petrochemical industry. The main products of the project are ethylene and propylene, which can meet the raw material demand of other projects. The project will be constructed in two phases, with the first and second phases of 1.8 million tons/year. Therefore, the risk management research of the MTO project can effectively identify and evaluate various risks faced by the Bohua Development MTO project, and take corresponding measures for risk management and control to ensure the smooth completion of the project. This paper first introduces the concept of risk, risk management, project management and project risk management, risk classification and characteristics, project risk management characteristics and the development status of risk management at home and abroad. Starting from the basic theoretical research of project risk, this paper discusses the project risk management. This paper introduces the general situation of Bohua Development and the general situation of MTO project, and finally uses the expert survey method of WBS-RBS and Delphi to identify the overall risk of the project, and finally proposes the risk countermeasures based on the risk identification and evaluation results. This paper innovation is based on the principle of Bohua Development MTO project risk management theory research, innovative use of WBS-RBS and Howard Philippine expert investigation method census of petrochemical project risk and the risk hierarchy, then carries on the analysis to assess, objectively existent risk screening project, puts forward the risk countermeasures, in order to better cope with risks,improve the level of project risk management, eliminate or reduce the project risk.
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