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论文编号：	10828
作者编号：	1120140788
上传时间：	2018/12/17 11:39:34
中文题目：	供应中断风险下基于风险共担与风险转移的零售商采购策略研究
英文题目：	Research on retailer’s procurement strategy based on risk-sharing and risk-transferring under supply disruption risk
指导老师：	李勇建
中文关键字：	供应中断风险；风险共担；风险转移；战略合作；采购策略选择
英文关键字：	Supply Disruption Risk; Risk-sharing; Risk-transferring; Strategic Cooperation; Procurement Strategy Selection
中文摘要：	近年来，供应链的全球化发展，地震、洪水、台风等自然灾害的频繁发生，以及质量问题、产品召回、贸易争端、企业的财务危机等突发事件的层出不穷，使得供应链发生中断风险的可能性不断上升，并逐渐引起企业管理者和学术界的关注和重视。供应链中断严重损害供应链上下游企业的运营绩效，以及利益相关者的利益，并给相关企业的声誉、声望和品牌价值带来严重的影响。因此，在面临供应链中断风险下，研究企业有效的中断风险应对与管理策略具有重要的理论意义与现实意义。基于现实案例和实践背景，本文提出了两方面的研究问题：供应链上下游相互合作共担中断风险和与备用供应商开展战略合作以转移中断风险。基于此问题，本文综合运用博弈论、约束优化、随机动态规划以及计算机模拟仿真等研究方法，在不同的运营环境下，从特定的中断情境出发，分别针对唯一供应商和存在备用供应商两种中断类型，从风险共担和风险转移的视角，规划了四个方面的研究内容。具体内容和研究发现如下： （1）期权与采购承诺策略下零售商的采购决策与策略选择 在唯一供应商中断情境下，考虑了不可靠供应商与零售商之间两种不同的合作与风险共担关系，即期权策略和采购承诺策略。分别在这两种采购策略下研究了供应商和零售商的最优生产和采购策略，零售商的最优采购策略选择，以及期权策略在管理供应中断风险方面的价值。另外，还对供应源中存在一个替代供应商的情形进行了分析。研究发现，在期权策略下，零售商的采购决策和利润与中断风险水平无关；当期权价格较小和运营环境风险适中时，期权策略可以给零售商带来更高的价值；在期权策略下，替代供应商的存在，对供应链有关决策的影响取决于其竞争力；而在采购承诺策略下，替代供应商的存在，对供应链有关决策的影响取决于中断风险大小；替代供应商的存在，对于零售商是有利的，对于不可靠的供应商却总是一个威胁；零售商需要准确评估对中断风险水平，以备选择最优的采购策略来应对供应中断风险。 （2）单源采购下考虑随机采购价格零售商的采购决策与策略选择 在唯一供应商中断情境下，综合考虑供应、需求和采购价格三方面的随机性，以及零售商具有两次采购机会的情况下，分别研究了零售商的期权策略和采购承诺策略。在每种采购策略下，给出了供应商的最优生产决策以及零售商的最优采购决策，另外，还从零售商的角度，研究了零售商的最优采购策略选择。进一步，考察了运营环境变化对供应链均衡决策与利润，以及零售商采购策略选择的影响。研究发现，在两种采购策略下，零售商的采购策略和供应商的生产策略遵循一个“阈值”原则；较低的期权价格或期权执行价格有利于零售商，而对于供应商来说，却是不利的；较高的期权价格或期权执行价格会促使供应商和零售商在一个更为风险的运营环境下参与合作；随机采购价格均值的上升，对供应商是有利的，对于零售商并非总是不利；一般来说，随机市场需求变动性的增加，对于供应商和零售商来说都是不利的，然而，在采购承诺策略下，供应商却受益于随机市场需求变动性的增加；随着中断风险的上升，零售商会先选择采购承诺策略，然后选择期权策略。 （3）双源采购下零售商的混合采购决策与策略选择 在存在备用供应商的中断情境下，考虑了零售商与备用供应商之间的多种不同层次的战略合作关系，分别在提前购买、期权采购与后备采购三种中断风险转移策略下，研究了零售商的最优采购决策和最优采购策略选择。进一步，还对零售商的混合采购策略进行了研究。另外，在运营环境变化下研究了七种不同的采购策略的效率，以及三种基本采购策略之间的互补性与替代性等问题。研究发现，无论中断风险是多少，零售商总会向主供应商处进行采购；在混合采购策略下，当中断未发生，零售商不会对自身的订单进行调整，只有当中断发生后，零售商才会调整订单，并且订单调整量取决于零售商处实际交付量的大小。在七种采购策略下，零售商的利润都是随中断风险的上升而下降的；一般来说，随着中断风险的上升，零售商会依次选择后备采购策略、期权采购策略和提前购买策略；应急采购成本的上升，会降低后备采购策略的价值，而期权价格或产品残值的上升会降低期权采购策略的价值；对于零售商来说，混合策略要优于相应的基本策略或子策略；另外，三种基本采购策略之间都是相互替代的。 （4）双源采购下考虑需求管理的零售商的定价与采购策略 在存在备用供应商的中断情境下，分别在提前购买、期权采购与后备采购三种中断风险转移策略下，研究了具有反应式定价能力零售商的最优采购与定价策略，并且从零售商的视角，给出了零售商的最优采购策略选择。另外，还对部分中断情形进行了研究。研究发现，在完全中断情形下，具有反应式定价能力零售商会制定一个市场出清价格，而不会使得产品出现剩余；在部分中断情形下，具有反应式定价能力的零售商并非总会制定一个市场出清价格；在期权价格较小或两个供应商之间批发价相差较大的情况下，零售商会分别选择后备采购、期权采购和提前购买策略，来应对低概率、中等概率和高概率的中断风险；在期权价格较高或两个供应商之间批发价相差较小的情况下，零售商会分别选择后备采购和提前购买策略，来应对低概率和高概率的中断风险。 本文的创新点主要有以下几个方面：（1）针对不同的中断情境，从中断发生的事前、事中和事后视角，综合战略与战术，分别设计和研究了零售商不同的供应中断风险分担和转移策略；（2）在唯一供应商中断情境下，在多重随机环境和多次采购机会下，探索了零售商通过期权策略和采购承诺策略来共担中断风险，并验证了期权策略的价值；（3）在存在备用供应商中断情境下，探索了零售商通过与备用供应商建立多种不同层次的战略合作关系来转移中断风险，在不同运营环境下，考察了零售商基本与混合采购策略的效率，以及不同策略之间的互补性与替代性等；（4）提出了零售商可以联合定价和与备用供应商构建不同层次的合作关系来共同管理供应中断风险。
英文摘要：	In recent years, the supply chain globalization, the frequent occurrence of natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, and typhoons, as well as the quality problems, product recalls, trade disputes, and corporate financial crises, all bring destructive effects and even disruptions to the supply chain, which have gradually attracted the attention from business managers and scholars. Supply chain disruption seriously damages the operational performance of upstream and downstream companies in the supply chain, as well as the interests of stakeholders, and has a serious negative impact on the reputation, prestige and brand value of companies. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the effective management and mitigation strategies for supply chain disruption risk. Based on the real cases and practice backgrounds, this thesis proposes two research issues: risk-sharing between the upstream and downstream of the supply chain and strategic cooperation with the backup supplier to transfer the disruption risk. Moreover, this thesis uses game theory, constrained optimization, stochastic dynamic programming, numerical simulation and other research methods, and reseraches how to manage the procurement strategies for a retailer when facing with supply disruption risk. Based on different operation environments and specific interruption scenarios, four aspects of research content are constructed from the perspectives of risk-sharing and strategic cooperation. The details are as follows: (1) Retailer's procurement decision and strategy selection under the option and procurement commitment strategies Under the disruption situation where there is only one supplier, two different cooperation and risk-sharing relationships between the unreliable supplier and retailer are considered, namely, option strategy and procurement commitment strategy. Under these two procurement strategies, the optimal production and procurement decisions of the supplier and retailer, the optimal strategy selection of retailer, as well as the value of option strategy in mitigating the supply disruption risk are studied. In addition, the impacts of the existence of an reliable supplier are investigated. The findings show that under the option strategy, the retailer's procurement decision and profit are independent of the disruption risk. A relatively smaller option price or a medium-risk operational environment heightens the value of the option strategy. Under the option strategy, the impacts of the existence of reliable supplier on the optimal decisions of the retailer and unreliable supplier depend on the unreliable supplier’s competitive power. Under the procurement commitment strategy, the impacts of the existence of reliable supplier on the optimal decisions of the retailer and unreliable supplier depend on the unreliable supplier’s disruption risk level. The existence of a reliable supplier is of benefit to retailer, however it is a threat to unreliable suppliers. The retailer need to assess the supply disruption risk level accurately in order to choose the optimal procruement strategy. (2) Retailer’s procurement decision and strategy selection with random procurement price under single sourcing mode Under the disruption situation where there is only one supplier, considering the randomness of supply, demand and procurement price, and the retailer's two ordering opportunities, the option strategy and procurement commitment strategy are investigated, respectively. Under each procurement strategy, the optimal production and procurement decisions of the supplier and retailer are given. In addition, from the perspective of the retailer, the optimal procurement strategy selection is also studied. Furthermore, the impacts of the changes of operating environment on the supply chain equilibrium decisions, profits, as well as retailer’s procurement strategy selection, are explored. The findings show that under each of two types of strategies, the retailer's and supplier's procurement and production strategies follow a “threshold” principle. A lower option price or option exercise price favor the retailer, but are disadvantageous for the supplier. A higher option price or option exercise price encourage both the retailer and supplier to participate in a riskier operational environment. The increase of the mean value of random emergency procurement price is beneficial to the supplier, whereas it is not always harmful to the retailer. In general, the variability of stochastic market demand is unfavorable for both the supplier and retailer. However, under the procurement commitment strategy, the supplier benefit from a higher variability of stochastic market demand. The retailer first chooses the procurement commitment strategy and then changes to the option strategy as the disruption risk increases. (3) Hybrid procurement decision and strategy selection for a retailer under dual sourcing mode Under the disruption situation where there exsits a backup supplier, three different levels of strategic cooperation relationships between the retailer and the backup supplier, namely advance purchase, option procurement and backup procurement strategies, are considered. Under each of the three types of pure strategies, the retailer’s optimal procurement decisions are studied. In addition, the retailer's hybrid procurement strategies are also considered and the corresponding optimal decisions are given. Moreover, the efficiencies of seven different procurement strategies are investigated. The complementarity and substitution among the three basic procurement strategies are explored. The findings show that, regardless of disruption risk, the retailer always purchases from the dedicated supplier. Under the hybrid procurement strategies, when the disruption does not occur, the retailer will not adjust his own order. Only when the disruption occurs, does the retailer probably adjust his order. Moreover, whether to adjust and the adjustment quantiy both depend on the retailer’s actual delivery quantity. Under the seven procurement strategies, the retailer’s profit decreases with disruption risk. In general, with the increase of disruption risk, the retailer will choose backup procurement strategy, option procurement strategy, and advance purchase strategy to mitigate supply disruption risks, respectively. With the increase of procurement cost, the value of the backup procurement strategy decreases. The value of the option procurement strategy decreases with the option price or product salvage value. For the retailer, the hybrid strategy is always superior to the corresponding basic strategies or sub-strategies. Moreover, the three basic procurement strategies are always mutually substitutable. (4) Retailer’s pricing and procurement strategy considering demand management under dual sourcing mode Under the disruption situation where there exists a backup supplier, the responsive-pricing retailer’s three different types of disruption risk-transferring strategies, namely advance purchase, option procurement and backup procurement strategies, are studied. The retailer's optimal procurement and pricing decisions under each of the three types of strategies are given. In addition, from the perspective of the retailer, the optimal procurement strategy is given. Moreover, the partial disruption model is also considered. The findings show that, in the all-or-nothing disruption model, the responsive-pricing retailer will always set a market clearing price. In the case of partial disruption, the responsive-pricing retailer will not always set a market clearing price. When the option price is relatively small or the difference between the two suppliers’ wholesale price is relatively big, the retailer will choose the backup procurement strategy, option procurement strategy, and the advance purchase strategy to deal with the low probability, medium probability and high probability of disruption risks, respectively. When the option price is relatively high or the difference between the two suppliers’ wholesale price is relatively small, the retailer will choose the backup procurement strategy and the advance purchase strategy to deal with the low probability and high probability of disruption risks, respectively. The main contributions of this thesis are as follows. (1) Based on two types of disruption scenarios, the retailer’s disruption risk-sharing and risk-transferring strategies are designed and investigated from ex-ant, intrim and ex-post, respectively. (2) For a single supplier scenario, considering the multi-dimensional uncertainties and multiple ordering opportunities, option strategy and procurement commitment strategy are explored for the retailer to share the disruption risk with unreliable supplier. The value of the option strategy is also verified. (3) For a dual sourcing scenario, different types of strategic cooperation relationships with the backup supplier are investigated to transfer the disruption risk for the retailer. The efficiencies of the base and hybrid procurement strategies are investigated under different operational environments. The complementarity and substitutability among different procurement strategies are also explored. (4) The pricing and different strategic cooperation relationships are proposed to mitigate the disruption risk for the retailer.
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