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| 论文编号： | 10803 | |
| 作者编号： | 2120163220 | |
| 上传时间： | 2018/12/11 16:04:45 | |
| 中文题目： | NY集团制造业子公司财务风险预警指标体系研究 | |
| 英文题目： | Financial Risk Pre-warning Index System Research For NY Investment Group’s Manufacturing Subsidiaries | |
| 指导老师： | 黄福广 | |
| 中文关键字： | NY集团；制造业；财务风险；风险预警 | |
| 英文关键字： | NY Investment Group；manufacturing industry；financial risk；risk pre-warning | |
| 中文摘要： | 供给侧结构性改革和去杠杆背景下，国企改革要求加强财务风险防控工作。NY集团是地方性国有投资集团，其制造业子公司，在新形势下面临较大的财务风险，为进一步加强财务风险防控工作，NY集团决定建立财务风险预警指标体系。根据国内外学者关于财务风险预警理论研究和实证研究结果，结合NY集团制造业子公司财务风险特点，本文选取了反映公司偿债能力、营运能力、盈利能力、发展能力和现金流的9个财务指标作为财务风险预警指标。通过对前人的研究成果进行筛选分析，运用选取的9个财务风险指标，构建了财务风险预警多元线性判定模型。为了在无法通过实证研究确定模型参数的情况下，本文选取了与本文构建模型相似，且适用于制造业财务风险预警的参考模型，运用合理方法将参考模型中的系数分配到本文预警模型中的各个预警指标中，确定本文模型相关参数和预警阀值，构成完整地财务风险预警模型。通过该预警模型可以计算公司的财务风险预警值，将预警值与设定好的财务风险预警阀值进行比较，得出预警结论。本文选取NY集团不同财务状况的制造业子公司进行应用检验，选取预警年度前两年的数据计算预警值并得出预警结论，检验结果显示，本文构建的预警体系可以通过公司前两年的历史数据得出正确的预警结论。 | |
| 英文摘要： | As a local state-owned investment group, NY group’s manufacturing subsidiaries are faced with greater financial risks in the new situation. To further strengthen the prevention and control of financial risks, NY group decided to establish a financial risk pre-warning index system. Based on the theoretical research and empirical research results of domestic and foreign scholars on financial risk warning, and combined with the financial risk characteristics of the manufacturing subsidiaries of NY group, nine financial indicators reflecting the company's solvency, operating capacity, profitability, development capacity and cash flow were selected as early warning indicators. By screening and analyzing the previous research results, select the warning model applicable to the manufacturing subsidiary of NY group. Combined with the early-warning indicators selected in this paper, the model was improved by using reasonable methods, and a new early-warning model of financial risk was constructed. The warning model can be used to calculate the financial risk warning value of the company. The warning value can be compared with the pre-set financial risk assessment classification judgment point, and the warning conclusion can be drawn. By selecting the manufacturing subsidiaries with different financial conditions of NY group for application test, it is shown that the warning system constructed in this paper can draw correct warning conclusions. | |
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