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论文编号：	10749
作者编号：	2120163028
上传时间：	2018/12/9 23:22:29
中文题目：	CF消费金融有限公司流动性风险分析
英文题目：	The analysis of liquidity risk on CF Consumer Finance Co.Ltd
指导老师：	王永进
中文关键字：	消费金融；流动性风险；全面风险管理；流动性比例法
英文关键字：	Consumer finance; Liquidity risk; Comprehensive risk management; Liquidity ratio method
中文摘要：	摘 要 消费金融作为我国全新的行业，自 2010年批准成立试点至今，其已经进入了快速发展期。政府明确提出支持促进消费金融发展，并陆续出台多条相关政策予以鼓励。CF消费金融有限公司是较早进入到我国消费金融市场的，是全球最大的消费金融公司，它对于国际金融市场来说，是不可或缺的一部分。流动性是一家消费金融公司的命脉，因其具有联动性，一旦发生流动性危机，随之而来的各种风险都都给公司带来许多麻烦，如随着流动性危机产生的市场风险、信用风险等，这些都会导致公司运营出现停滞，最终走向破产。2008年，国际金融危机爆发，人们在危机过后，开始对金融机构的监管和把控制度上越来越重视，希望能够借此来规避风险。2001年，巴塞尔委员会修订了《巴塞尔协议III》，从而为金融机构的监管提出了最初的监管制度模型。与此同时，我国的金融监管机构，也通过分析我国特殊的国情，制定了箱管的条款，从而为我国监管流动性风险作出的标准和指标。 随着CF公司资金需求量的不断增加，发展规模的不断壮大，公司内部单位资金来源与资金运用不匹配等问题凸显，加之宏观货币政策收紧、利率市场化的提速，公司流动性风险日益升高。因此，公司应该把关注点放在流动性是否充足和如何对流动性进行有效的监管两个方面。所以，作者认为，将CF金融消费金融公司作为案例，探索其在对流动性的监管上现有的情况和存在的问题，并对其进行分析研究，具有很强的现实意义，不仅能对CF公司后续的发展提出建议，也可以为其他同行业的公司提供参考的价值。 本文分七个章节，各章内容简述如下： 第一章为引言。首先，介绍了本文的选题背景，在全球金融危机之后，我国的经济受到了冲击。国家为拉动内需，出台一系列相关政策，旨在刺激经济的增长，我国的消费金融公司也就应运而生。经历了近十年的发展后，公司的业务得到了扩张，但随之融资困难、拆借成本高，贷款不良率高等问题所造成的流动性风险也逐步显现。 所以，本文基于我国国情和政策出发，旨在让消费金融公司对流动性风险提起足够的重视。并且在当下金融市场整体流动性不足的情况下，通过分析改进，长期防控流动性风险的发生。在增强CF公司综合竞争力的同时，希望对整个消费金融行业具有参考意义。 第二章是本文的理论章节，整体概述了流动性风险的相关理论。首先介绍了相关定义，包括流动性和流动性风险。提出相关理论，包括：公司价值理论、资产流动性管理理论、负债流动性理论、全面风险管理理论。以及国际通用的计量标准：巴塞尔资本协议III度量标准。接下来，文章论述了产生流动性风险的内因：资产负债结构不合理、其他风险向流动性风险转化。外因：宏观经济环境、央行货币政策、金融市场发育程度。本文主要从内因着手进行分析研究。 第三章是鉴于消费金融仍是一个新兴行业，所以专门对对消费金融行业背景和特点，CF公司概况、经营范围、主要产品进行介绍，为后文的CF公司流动性研究进行了铺垫。消费金融一般被认定等同于个人消费贷款，仅为满足消费目的而提供贷款，其旨在为中、低收入人群提供消费贷款，将业务拓展到传统银行无法覆盖的金融服务“死角”。 第四章开始，将进入到CF公司流动性风险管理现状的分析。首先从资产规模，负债规模，盈利水平来整体评估CF公司流动性，可以看出资产方面：金融资产类别以发放的贷款为主，且规模逐年大幅上涨。相应的贷款损失准备计提规模逐年增加。 文章选取了六大计量指标：资本充足率、流动性比率、流动性覆盖率、资产收益率、净资产收益率、不良贷款率，利用CF公司真实审计年报数据进行计算。通过流动性比例法对计量结果分析，最后得出结论：资本充足率尚可，但流动性比率持续降低、资产收益率同比降低，有待提高、不良贷款率增高，信用风险较高、流动性负缺口增加，风险持续增高。 第五章得出CF公司流动性风险管理存在问题，第一资产与负债存在结构性的矛盾，第二融资成本较高，第三不良贷款率较高。导致这些问题的原因是CF公司产品结构过于单一：CF公司贷款产品的期限集中在 1 年以上，拆入资金期限主要在 1 年以内。融资渠道狭窄：按政策规定消费金融公司不可公开吸收存款。风控体系不完善：对于公司无需担保、贷款办理速度快的特点，对风控系统要求较高。流动性风险管理方法落后：缺乏一个全面动态的评估，没有系统支持。 第六章就上文提出的问题，给出合理化的建议措施，包含：1. 积极拓展融资渠道，2. 端对端优化风控流程 3. 多元化还款渠道和产品类型 4. 全面完善流动性风险评估机制。 最后得出结论，通过分析流动性指标的规模和趋势，发现CF消费金融公司的流动性不足，资产负债结构不合理，同业拆借比例过高；通过分析流动性风险的联动性，发现由不良贷款率较高引起的信用风险和同业拆借利率波动的市场风险有着相互转移的特点。因此，要控制流动性风险，需要从全面风险管理方面入手；从公司内部践行优化措施，进而匹配好资产与负债的期限，实时监控、长远评估融资流动性的缺口，避免负缺口的出现，保证正缺口的适度。 关键词：消费金融；流动性风险；全面风险管理；流动性比例法
英文摘要：	Abstract Consumer finance has been developing rapidly since it got approval to set up at 2010 as one brand new industry in China. Meanwhile the government has explicitly made a promise to ensure the development sustainable under the environment which associated with several loose polices. CF Ltd , the largest consumer financial company in whole world, was the first echelon of marketing exploitation in the business field of China and it has become the key puzzle for the International financial market. Liquidity of credit loan fund, as its feature of co-movement, must be the vital element for a consumer finance company. The incessant explicit and implicit impacts like market shrink, credit default and others would follow that the lack of liquidity occurred, which will lead to the languished and even the bankruptcy. The level of supervision and control to financial organization has been set to new high to avoid the repeating the history of international financial crisis of 2008 after people had through that. At 2011, the Basel Committee revises “The Basel Accord No.3” to build a prototype of supervisory system for financial organization. Meanwhile a series of control terms based on the specific conditions of the country has also been proposed and established by the supervisor institution of China, which standardize the risk of asset liquidity. The risk of liquidity of CF was pushed to high level by the obvious gap between source of internal capital and usage of it on the situation of the increasing capital requirement and business scope. In addition, that macroeconomic policy tightening and interest rate liberalization accelerated also make the risk much more. In response of that, the organization should pay more attention on both of the inventory of liquidity and the way how to monitor it. As a result, author deems that the CF Ltd was made as a case to detect and research the existing issue on the supervision of capital liquidity makes more reality sense. The research conclusion can not only raise some suggestions for the business development, but also could be referred to other similar industry. Chapter 1, foreword of paper, introduced the background that China’s economy was affected by the global financial crisis for the topic picked up. Aim to stimulate domestic demand and economic growth, China's consumer finance companies have emerged at the environment that a series of policies and solutions were introduced by government. After nearly a decade of development, a batch of issues, the difficulties of financing funding, high cost of borrowing, and high non-performing and substandard rate and the liquidity risk appeared while the company's business has rapid expansion. Therefore, based on China's national conditions and policies, this paper aims to make consumer finance companies pay enough attention to liquidity risks. And in the current financial market's overall lack of liquidity, it is hoped to have reference significance for the entire consumer finance industry through analysis and improvement, long-term prevention and control of liquidity risk while enhancing the comprehensive competitiveness of CF companies. The second chapter, the theoretical of this paper, outlines the relevant theories of liquidity risk. The definitions including liquidity and liquidity risk are introduced firstly. And the relevant theories not only include company value theory, asset liquidity management theory, debt liquidity theory and comprehensive risk management theory, but the internationally accepted measurement standards: Basel Capital Accord III metrics are also raised in the meantime. Following, the article discusses the internal causes of liquidity risk: the irrational structure of assets and liabilities, and the conversion of other risks to liquidity risks, and external factors: macroeconomic environment, central bank monetary policy, financial market development. This paper mainly conducts analytical research from internal factors. Based on the fact that consumer finance is still an emerging industry. Therefore, the third chapter introduces the background and characteristics of the consumer finance industry, the profile of the CF Company, the scope of business, and the main products, which pave the way for the CF Company’s liquidity research. Consumer finance is generally cognized to be equivalent to personal consumer loans as only provides loans for the purpose of consumption. It aims to provide consumer loans for middle- and low-income people, and expands the business to a “dead corner” of financial services that traditional banks cannot cover. From the fourth chapter, the paper starts the analysis of the current status of CF Company’s liquidity risk management. First of all, the overall liquidity of CF companies is assessed by the asset size, debt scale and profit level, which can be indicated that the issued loans as the mainly financial assets category and the scale has increased significantly year by year and the loan loss provisions does. The article picked up six measurement indicators: capital adequacy ratio, liquidity ratio, liquidity coverage, return on assets, and return on net assets, non-performing loan ratio, which are calculated from CF Company’s real annually audit reporting data. Through the liquidity ratio method, the measurement results concluded that the capital adequacy ratio is acceptable, but the liquidity ratio and the asset return rate continues to decrease year-on-year, which needs to be improved. On the contrary, the gap and risk continue to increase following by the non-performing loan ratio increased, high the credit risk, and the negative liquidity. The fifth chapter concludes that there are problems in CF Company’s liquidity risk management. There is a structural contradiction between the first assets and liabilities, the second financing cost and the third non-performing loan ratio is higher. The reason for these issues is, 1: CF's product structure is singleness: CF companies' loan products are concentrated for one year+ product, and the time for disbursement of funds is mainly within one year; 2: Lack of financing channels: According to the policy, consumer finance companies cannot publicly absorb deposits; 3: The risk control system is imperfect: there is no need for guarantees and the loan processing speed is fast for the company, and the requirements for the risk control system are high; 4: The liquidity risk management approach is lagging behind: there is a lack of a comprehensive dynamic assessment and without system support. The sixth chapter gives the problems raised above some reasonable suggestions, which including 1. Expanding financing channels actively; 2. Optimizing risk control processes end-to-end 3. Being diversified repayment channels and product types 4. Improving overall mobility Sexual risk assessment mechanism. Finally, it is concluded through by analyzing the scale and trend of liquidity indicators, that the CF consumer finance company has insufficient liquidity, the asset and liability structure is unreasonable, and the interbank borrowing ratio is too high. By analyzing the linkage of liquidity risk, it is found that the credit risk caused by the higher rate non-performing loans and the market risk of fluctuations in interbank offered interest rates have the characteristics of mutual transfer. Therefore, in order to control liquidity risk, the solution should start with comprehensive risk management; implement optimization measures from the internal of company, and then matches the maturity of assets and liabilities, turn on real-time monitoring, and assess financing liquidity gap in long-term, and avoids the emergence of negative gaps to ensure that the positive gap is moderate at last. Keywords: Consumer finance; Liquidity risk; Comprehensive risk management; Liquidity ratio method
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