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论文编号：	10675
作者编号：	2120163286
上传时间：	2018/12/8 13:18:35
中文题目：	房地产项目投资经济效益评价与风险管理研究 ——以Z房地产公司T项目为例
英文题目：	Research on Economic Benefit Evaluation and Risk Management of Real Estate Project Investment —Taking the T project of Z Real Estate Company as an example
指导老师：	严建援
中文关键字：	房地产投资;经济效益评价;风险管理;净资产收益率;模糊综合评价法
英文关键字：	real estate investment;economic evaluation;risk management;rate of return on common stockholders’ equity;fuzzy analytical hierarchy process contents
中文摘要：	自我国房地产行业起步以来，行业持续高速发展，2017年全国实现了16.94亿平米的商品房销售面积，成为全球第一大房地产市场，然而规模的快速增长之下，隐藏的是行业机制不成熟的隐忧，尤其自2016年9月30日党中央国务院提出了“房住不炒”的调控理念之后，国内出现了多个项目因地价过高导致资金链断裂，进度停滞的现象。究其原因，主要还是行业投资经济指标研究不全面，有效风险管理方法缺失，导致外部环境变化后无法快速有效应对，从而出现此种现象。通过查阅相关研究文献，虽然有国内外有多位学者针对这两方面做了多项研究，但是具体来看，仍然存在理论与实际脱离、方法不具备实用性的问题。 针对行业这一突出问题，本文一方面通过对Z房地产公司的投资经济效益评价体系进行研究，结合既有的工程经济学理论，在原有静态、动态经济指标的基础上，引入关注自有资金使用效率的净资产收益率等相关评价指标，建立起适合我国行业现状的房地产项目投资经济效益评价体系。另一方面利用模糊综合评价法（FAHP），结合房地产行业的风险因素构成，对其进行风险评估，形成一套可行的房地产投资风险量化评估方法。这套投资经济效益评价体系和投资风险量化评估方法基本涵盖了房地产开发商在投资拿地阶段需要评判的所有重点因素，同时也较为契合我国的房地产当前的行业发展现状。 最后以天津市静海区T项目为例，来研究这套方法的有效性，因为T项目尚处在运营期，研究时效性较强，对于本文的研究结论也有较强的检验力度。而且，T项目属于房地产收并购项目，通过收购并购投资是当前我国主流房地产开发商比较趋向的拿地方式，更具备实际检验意义。
英文摘要：	Since the start of China's real estate industry, it has been developing at a high speed. In 2017, China achieved a sales area of 1.694 billion square meters of commercial residence, becoming the world's largest real estate market. However, under the rapid growth of scale, the hidden mechanism of the industry is not mature. In particular, since the Party Central Committee and the State Council put forward the regulation concept of “staying and not speculating” on September 30, 2016, there have been many domestic projects in which the capital chain has broken due to high land prices and the progress has stagnated. The reason is mainly because the research on the economic indicators of the industry investment is not comprehensive, and the effective risk management methods are lacked, which leads to the failure to respond quickly and effectively after the external environment changes.By consulting relevant research literatures, although many scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on these two aspects, in concrete terms, there are still problems of theoretical and practical separation, and methods are not practical. In view of this outstanding problem of the industry, on the one hand, this thesis studies the investment economic evaluation system of the Z Real Estate Company. Through combining the existing engineering economics theory, on the basis of the original static and dynamic economic indicators, this thesis introduces the use efficiency of self-owned funds, Rate of Return on Common Stockholders’ Equity and other relevant evaluation indicators. Thus, a real estate project investment economic evaluation system is established, which is suitable for the status quo of China's industry. On the other hand, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is used to conduct risk assessment of the risk factors, thereby, this thesis forms a feasible quantitative evaluation method of real estate investment risk. This set of investment economic benefit evaluation system and investment risk quantitative assessment method basically covers all the key factors that real estate developers need to judge in the stage of investment in land acquisition, and it is also more suitable for the current industry development status of real estate in China. Finally, taking the T project in Jinghai District of Tianjin as an example, the effectiveness of the method above is studied. Because the T project is still in the operation period, the research timeliness is strong, and the research conclusions are therefore robust.Moreover, the T project is a real estate acquisition project. The acquisition of investment is a relatively common way of acquiring land in China's mainstream real estate companies, and it has practical significance.
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