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论文编号：	10364
作者编号：	2220160759
上传时间：	2018/12/6 10:17:58
中文题目：	非平稳需求下TF一站式企业及时交付管理研究
英文题目：	Study on the timely delivery management of TF one-stop enterprise under non-stationary demand
指导老师：	严建援
中文关键字：	需求预测；快速制造；库存；供应商
英文关键字：	demand forecasting；Rapid Manufacturing；Stock；suppliers
中文摘要：	当前市场竞争非常激烈，需求预测波动比较大，交付难以满足，供需平衡、产出有效性问题难易平衡控制，传统的及时交付方法主要是依靠库存来维持。 库存过多，产品积压在在制段，不仅造成生产效率低下、返工等问题，也造成大量资金被占用，并掩盖了生产运作中的很多问题。如果库存短缺，就不可避免出现交付无法达成情况。一旦出现缺货，客户会在不断等待货物情况下，开发其他新供应商，增加同行的竞争压力。 一站式企业模大、工艺节点多、生产周期长、资产重、内部系统IT化程度低，当客户个性化的需求多，小批量、多品种，货期要求越来越短，一站式企业的及时交付问题成为了引领企业战略新的竞争力。 本文根据TF公司的客户需求特点，提出客户需求预判的优化方法，重新调整预判部门的组织架构，将需求预测按照波动率和市场需求量分为四类情况，并针对每一种情况提出对应的生产计划方案。 由于需求预测无法做到百分之百的准确，为应对客户的需求外需求，本文提出采用低库存交付的方式，适当准备库存，缩短生产周期，及时交付和满足客户需求。 当需求预测和库存都无法满足的客户紧急订单来临时，本文提出快速制造的方法，应对该类需求。主要方法是采用缩短生产周期、提高生产柔性、外部供应商合作，保证满足客户紧急需求。 通过维持一年时间的及时交付方法的实施和改造，TF公司的交付绩效明显提升。在2015年，交付绩效为不及格。到2017年，交付绩效为满分。同时，通过对比，2017年的成品与半成品的总额比2015年下降了30%左右。
英文摘要：	At present, the market competition is very fierce, the demand forecast fluctuates greatly, the delivery is difficult to satisfy, the supply and demand balance, the output validity question is difficult to balance the control, and the traditional timely delivery method mainly depends on the inventory to maintain. Overstocking and overstocking of products in the controlled section not only result in inefficient production, rework and other problems, but also cause a large amount of funds to be taken up, and cover up many problems in production operations. If there is a shortage of stocks, It is inevitable that delivery cannot be achieved. In the event of a shortage, customers will develop other new suppliers while waiting for the goods, increasing the competitive pressure of their peers. One-stop enterprise has large mould, many process nodes, long production cycle, heavy assets, low degree of internal system IT, when the customer's individualized demand is more, smaller batch, more variety, shorter and shorter delivery period, The one-stop enterprise timely delivery problem has become the leading enterprise strategy new competitive power. According to the characteristics of TF Company’s customer demand, this paper puts forward the optimization method of customer demand pre-judgment, readjusts the organizational structure of pre-judgment department, and divides demand forecast into four categories according to volatility and market demand. The corresponding solutions are proposed for each case. Because the demand forecast cannot achieve accuracy absolutely, in order to meet the customer's demand outside demand, this paper proposes to adopt the way of low inventory delivery, properly prepare the inventory, shorten the production cycle, deliver and meet the customer's demand in time. When the demand forecast and inventory cannot meet the customer emergency orders, this paper proposes a rapid manufacturing method to deal with this kind of demand. The main method is to shorten the production cycle, improve production flexibility, external supplier cooperation, and make sure to meet the urgent needs of customers. Through the implementation and modification of the timely delivery method over a one-year period, the delivery performance of TF Company has improved significantly. In 2015, the delivery performance was failing. By 2017, the delivery performance was a full score. At the same time, By comparison, the total number of finished and semi-finished products in 2017 was about 30% lower than in 2015.
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